Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[DNP-Old]

Welp, time to annex Flanders.

 

[Big Doopie]

as a Belgian I can only say you should have a mental exam. Maybe North Korea might be worse, but this country is non functioning in so many ways, we just need a doctor to switch of life support, put out the lights and close the door;

all i will say, is that where i live, things are pretty seriously effed up as well, so...

i am sure i am also romanticizing Belgium in the sense that my fond memories are as a child listening to Paris-Roubaix updates from Luc Varenne on the radio...

 

[red_flanders]

as a Belgian I can only say you should have a mental exam. Maybe North Korea might be worse, but this country is non functioning in so many ways, we just need a doctor to switch of life support, put out the lights and close the door;

on topic: despite the many reasons why remco should not ride the tour (lefevre, it was always the plan to ride the giro first, the team not strong enough, the 2023 route of the tour, ....) there are two big reasons why he will ride it anyway: 1. the plan: He wants to win the olympic ITT in 2024, but it will be hard competing with Ganna etc just 10 days after finishing the tour 2024. Ride 2024 giro and then prepare for Paris . 2. his ambition to be the best, and that you can only do by winning the tour.

Weeeeellll...I will say your views on Remco's plan make sense.

 

[red_flanders]

Current Sporza poll on which Tour Remco should do.

However with the paragraph at top, I think we might call that "poisoning the well".

 

[Oldermanish]

After the TDF reveal, the price just went down.

No sh*t. It looks as though the Tour is happy with last year's competition and may be sending a message to other riders. Get ready to climb, dudes.
As a racer that benefitted from TTs in stage races I'll miss that discipline but from the couch fan's perspective it's better TV.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

However with the paragraph at top, I think we might call that "poisoning the well".

Hmm, not necessarily. They present it as a choice between 50 additional TT km in the Giro, or a start in Basque Country, where he likes to race.

 

[red_flanders]

Hmm, not necessarily. They present it as a choice between 50 additional TT km in the Giro, or a start in Basque Country, where he likes to race.

I don't find those comparable in terms of pulling him towards one race or the other. Basque Country is nice, the TT k's are a meaningful difference which will likely impact his ability to win the race.

 

[Andre]

One of the CN journalists said this:
"In any case, it's the riders who will make the race, as the cliché goes. In that respect, it's worth noting that ASO's previous attempts to liven up the Tour – steeper gradients (2017) included – had relatively little impact. The Tour has arguably been a victim of its own success in recent times, as its towering importance leading to uniformity of form and tactical conservatism. Can any amount of route-bending undo that?

The 2023 Tour will provide more robust evidence on that front. It will be a crucial experiment in coding the DNA of the modern Tour de France."

So they don't want a boring Tour de France, but this parcours does not guarantee an exciting race. I mean, hopefully it's a close race and has great moments of racing....but Le Tour will have to wait another year for Remco and the fireworks that he brings to racing. With hardly any contre la montre kilometers, seems suspicious to me a bit. Hopefully next year they add some.

 

[Extinction]

One of the CN journalists said this:
"In any case, it's the riders who will make the race, as the cliché goes. In that respect, it's worth noting that ASO's previous attempts to liven up the Tour – steeper gradients (2017) included – had relatively little impact. The Tour has arguably been a victim of its own success in recent times, as its towering importance leading to uniformity of form and tactical conservatism. Can any amount of route-bending undo that?

The 2023 Tour will provide more robust evidence on that front. It will be a crucial experiment in coding the DNA of the modern Tour de France."

So they don't want a boring Tour de France, but this parcours does not guarantee an exciting race. I mean, hopefully it's a close race and has great moments of racing....but Le Tour will have to wait another year for Remco and the fireworks that he brings to racing. With hardly any contre la montre kilometers, seems suspicious to me a bit. Hopefully next year they add some.

While it is certainly true that the riders make the race, it is also valid that the parcours makes the riders.

 

[Oldermanish]

One of the CN journalists said this:
"In any case, it's the riders who will make the race, as the cliché goes. In that respect, it's worth noting that ASO's previous attempts to liven up the Tour – steeper gradients (2017) included – had relatively little impact. The Tour has arguably been a victim of its own success in recent times, as its towering importance leading to uniformity of form and tactical conservatism. Can any amount of route-bending undo that?

The 2023 Tour will provide more robust evidence on that front. It will be a crucial experiment in coding the DNA of the modern Tour de France."

So they don't want a boring Tour de France, but this parcours does not guarantee an exciting race. I mean, hopefully it's a close race and has great moments of racing....but Le Tour will have to wait another year for Remco and the fireworks that he brings to racing. With hardly any contre la montre kilometers, seems suspicious to me a bit. Hopefully next year they add some.

As you said the Tour is a victim of it's own success. As for your suspicions, they would hardly work to discourage Remco from racing. Their route selection takes months to confirm and get to contract; they commit far enough in advance that a rider's current form wouldn't change a thing on the parcours.

 

[DNP-Old]

"He's a rider who, for me, right now, is the best. Tadej Pogačar is exceptional but Remco does things that surprise everyone. He's far superior to others. So for me, he's the best rider in the world at the moment, by a long way", Valverde said.

Kenner.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar is still the best in the world. I still need to see Remco dropping Pogacar when both are in top shape.

 

[tobydawq]

Pogacar is still the best in the world. I still need to see Remco dropping Pogacar when both are in top shape.

When did Pogacar drop Remco when both were in top shape?

 

[spalco]

As you said the Tour is a victim of it's own success. As for your suspicions, they would hardly work to discourage Remco from racing. Their route selection takes months to confirm and get to contract; they commit far enough in advance that a rider's current form wouldn't change a thing on the parcours.

There's also absolutely no reason why they wouldn't want Remco at the Tour. Apparently they don't care much either way though, at least for now. I wouldn't be shocked if the 2024 route offers some modest incentives for Remco.

 

[sir fly]

There's also absolutely no reason why they wouldn't want Remco at the Tour. Apparently they don't care much either way though, at least for now. I wouldn't be shocked if the 2024 route offers some modest incentives for Remco.

Usually a challenger has to overcome the obstacles a defender and route present.
Only after he proves himself is faced with something more favourable.
The pattern has rarely been violated.

 

[Bolder]

It's a really interesting debate (Pog vs Remco). I just haven't seen them head-to-head enough to say one way or another. I still think in a GT, with both in optimal shape, that Pog wins 9 of 10 times -- but also that we don't really know Remco's upside potential.

The question is -- and I don't think we've seen this yet: Say Remco does one of his "I'll just ride everyone off my wheel 40 kms from the end" -- does/can Pog go with him? I think he can and does...and another question: Is there a race that Remco can win that Pog can't (and vice versa). I'd say that Pog has a much better shot at winning any race that typically ends in a reduced sprint, whether flat or uphill. But what terrain could Remco own vs Pog (outside of a flat/rolling ITT)?

For now I'd give the edge to Pogacar, but ask me again in a couple of years...

 

[Ilmaestro99]

When did Pogacar drop Remco when both were in top shape?

Tirreno Adriatico.

 

[tobydawq]

Tirreno Adriatico.

How was Remco in top shape there?

 

[Big Doopie]

Pogacar is still the best in the world. I still need to see Remco dropping Pogacar when both are in top shape.

pog was in top shape at the worlds.

if u think he is at his top only when he wins, then that kind of defeats the premise. Pog had just won Montreal (beating WvA), he had just recorded his best Worlds TT result, he was at his best in all the Italian day races that followed, including Lombardia where he was unable to drop Mas, Remco’s second at the Vuelta).

I agree that Pog is still likely to win in more scenarios, but I don’t think even he could do a ride like Remco’s at Worlds. And I think that is what Valverde is pointing to. (Valverde had also experienced a similar dominating ride at San Sebastián).

 

[Ilmaestro99]

but I don’t think even he could do a ride like Remco’s at Worlds.

He did it at Strade Bianche. He did it multiple times in TDF last year

 

[Ilmaestro99]

How was Remco in top shape there?

I don't know , I just decided that he was so that there was a possible answer to the question

 

[Big Doopie]

He did it at Strade Bianche. He did it multiple times in TDF last year

multiple times? Once.

I agree Strade was a fabulous win (a La Remco). But Strade is not Worlds. Strade you have individuals chasing behind. At Worlds the peloton never got closer to Remco after he went solo. He was expending energy from 70 kms out and arguably was solo from 35 kms out (Luchenko did not do much).

Remco has now done these types of rides (truly) multiple times, where he holds off entire peloton and teams chasing behind.

I cannot see Pog ever winning a Worlds like that a La Remco. However, neither can I imagine Remco winning a Worlds in a sprint. Pog I most definitely can.

I do find it a little funny posters who deny the real experience of pros because it does not jibe with their fan biases.

 

[Big Doopie]

I don't know , I just decided that he was so that there was a possible answer to the question

a more honest forum answer you will not find.

 

[Andre]

There's also absolutely no reason why they wouldn't want Remco at the Tour. Apparently they don't care much either way though, at least for now. I wouldn't be shocked if the 2024 route offers some modest incentives for Remco.

I see what you mean, but maybe Le Tour figures that in 2024 Remco's natural progression will automatically make him join in. I mean if he races Il Giro this year he most probably won't do it again in 2024...it will be all out for France. The organizers,knowing this, will feel no need to make the parcours attractive for Remco. I hope I'm wrong and in fact they add some TT kilometers. I mean there should be at least 2 TT's of a good length.

 

[Extinction]

Big compliment by Valverde, who knows a thing or two, and if he said "by a lot" then this must mean he's seen Remco do things mere mortals can't. Moreover, he specifically mentioned this in relation to Pogacar.

I think the way Pogacar crashed onto the scene and his versitality, somewhat misleadingly obscured Remco's great talent until this year. But that was as much owing to Remco's career threatening crash at the moment Pog was about to "shock the world" by winning the Tour still 21 years-old, and the long road to recovery (with an imprudently hastened and hazzarded GT debut at the Giro), rather than just Tadej's success.

Pogacar is a great talent indeed, however, Valverde must feel (and I think he's not the only seasoned pro to feel this way) that Remco has the power to drop anyone in the peleton. And that, if he continues on his current trajectory, he shall emerge as the best rider in the world by a fair margin.

True, he hasn't won the Tour yet, but it's coming. Remember Pog looked unbeatable until Vingegaard dethroned him, while it sounds like Valverde believes Remco is much better. It reminds me of Nibali's dumbfounded remark about Evenepoel's winning move at Liege: "I tried to get on his wheel, but he was going three times faster than everyone else. Impressive!"