Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Unchained]

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Carlo Rossi in the United States is often recognized as a cheap wine sold in gallon jugs!!

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[Oldermanish]

I predict next year Remco will try it....and win it

He's got a young pool of willing combatants waiting.

 

[Valanga]

I predict next year Remco will try it....and win it

And then people will say he only won because Pogačar wasn't there. ;-)

 

[Andy schleck]

And then people will say he only won because Pogačar wasn't there. ;-)

Not just pogacar. Also van der poel, van aert, roglic will not be there.

 

[Riek s]

I'm actually rather interested in the battle for LBL and whether Pog - Remco can make it a 2 man show.

Logic would dictate that:

• Remco is still on the way up (since he focusses on Giro)
• Pog should be on his way down as his peak was now.

So i think they should be very worthy to go head to head. They both have completely different characteristics as riders, but what they share is attack drive, battling early and in the open.


Albeit, given Pog sprint/acceleration I think i give him the tactical advantage. Maybe Remco can have a tactical advantage with Alla if he reaches his best top level.. but haven't seen any evidence of that for now.

 

[Andre]

I'm actually rather interested in the battle for LBL and whether Pog - Remco can make it a 2 man show.

Logic would dictate that:

• Remco is still on the way up (since he focusses on Giro)
• Pog should be on his way down as his peak was now.

So i think they should be very worthy to go head to head. They both have completely different characteristics as riders, but what they share is attack drive, battling early and in the open.


Albeit, given Pog sprint/acceleration I think i give him the tactical advantage. Maybe Remco can have a tactical advantage with Alla if he reaches his best top level.. but haven't seen any evidence of that for now.

Tadej would do good to be at a high peak for LBL, otherwise Remco will just ride away like he's known to do.

 

[peterfin]

Yesterday I wondered if Remco would be able to close that 15s gap between MVDP and Pogacar? We may see a similar scenario during LBL if Pogacar accelerates on la Roche-aux-Faucons. The opposite might also happen but I give it a lower probability. In any case, if Pogacar makes the gap, what does he need at the top to ensure Remco can't catch up before the final sprint? It's mostly downhill so maybe 10s is enough.

 

[Berniece]

Yesterday I wondered if Remco would be able to close that 15s gap between MVDP and Pogacar? We may see a similar scenario during LBL if Pogacar accelerates on la Roche-aux-Faucons. The opposite might also happen but I give it a lower probability. In any case, if Pogacar makes the gap, what does he need at the top to ensure Remco can't catch up before the final sprint? It's mostly downhill so maybe 10s is enough.

He needs at least 20s. Remco will easily close that gap in his TT position. But eventually Pogacar will win the sprint, so Remco needs to drop him, not the other way around

 

[Red Rick]

For Evenepoel it's really about how well he manages Kwaremont and the more nasty cobbled hills. Once it's just about pure solo ability you very easily back him to pull back significant chunks of time, but then I also don't favor Evenepoel to outsprint Pogacar.

So put Evenepoel in there and presumably it mainly benefits MvdP

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm actually rather interested in the battle for LBL and whether Pog - Remco can make it a 2 man show.

Logic would dictate that:

• Remco is still on the way up (since he focusses on Giro)
• Pog should be on his way down as his peak was now.

So i think they should be very worthy to go head to head. They both have completely different characteristics as riders, but what they share is attack drive, battling early and in the open.


Albeit, given Pog sprint/acceleration I think i give him the tactical advantage. Maybe Remco can have a tactical advantage with Alla if he reaches his best top level.. but haven't seen any evidence of that for now.

So far when they went head to head in 1 day races, either one of them was a no-show or irrelevant in the race finale, when the other was actually one of the protagonists.
Pogacar was nowhere in San Sebastian twice and in Emilia resulting in DNF, he was mostly irrelevant in the WCC and the ECC where he didn't come close to rivalling Evenepoel.
Evenepoel was a non-factor in Lombardia '21 and the Olympic road race.

They've faced off more than you would think, but we've never seen them go toe to toe in a one-day race.

 

[houtdffan]

I'm actually rather interested in the battle for LBL and whether Pog - Remco can make it a 2 man show.

Logic would dictate that:

• Remco is still on the way up (since he focusses on Giro)
• Pog should be on his way down as his peak was now.

So i think they should be very worthy to go head to head. They both have completely different characteristics as riders, but what they share is attack drive, battling early and in the open.


Albeit, given Pog sprint/acceleration I think i give him the tactical advantage. Maybe Remco can have a tactical advantage with Alla if he reaches his best top level.. but haven't seen any evidence of that for now.

After what we saw at Catalyuna, you may be underestimating Remco's sprint quite a bit. It may be the advantage to Remco if it comes down to a 2 man sprint. Pog's sprinting has not been very good this year compared to his reputation

 

[Peyroteo94]

After what we saw at Catalyuna, you may be underestimating Remco's sprint quite a bit. It may be the advantage to Remco if it comes down to a 2 man sprint. Pog's sprinting has not been very good this year compared to his reputation

He is not sprinting against GC riders. Remco doesn't have a chance in a sprint against Pogi.

 

[peterfin]

He is not sprinting against GC riders. Remco doesn't have a chance in a sprint against Pogi.

He definitely has a chance. It could be only 20-25% but sufficient to gamble if he sees no other option. He did well recently and he showed some glimpses of his progress last year as well.

 

[houtdffan]

He is not sprinting against GC riders. Remco doesn't have a chance in a sprint against Pogi.

Remco finished 5th in a flat bunch sprint against sprinters recently. He was 5th because he didn't know how to bang elbows and lost a touch of pace in the finale. Second in an uphill bunch sprint, only because he started too far back.

 

[Nick2413]

Yesterday I wondered if Remco would be able to close that 15s gap between MVDP and Pogacar? We may see a similar scenario during LBL if Pogacar accelerates on la Roche-aux-Faucons. The opposite might also happen but I give it a lower probability. In any case, if Pogacar makes the gap, what does he need at the top to ensure Remco can't catch up before the final sprint? It's mostly downhill so maybe 10s is enough.

At least in Flanders, yesterday looked more like a data point that the rider who has the most left is the rider who will do best on the flats on the run in to the finish. We know what Remco is capable of, but if he were to get dropped like MVDP was in Flanders I don’t think he would come back. If he were really able to TT back a lot of time in a short span I don’t think he’d get dropped in the first place.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

At least in Flanders, yesterday looked more like a data point that the rider who has the most left is the rider who will do best on the flats on the run in to the finish. We know what Remco is capable of, but if he were to get dropped like MVDP was in Flanders I don’t think he would come back. If he were really able to TT back a lot of time in a short span I don’t think he’d get dropped in the first place.

I don't see how getting dropped on a steep 4 minute cobbled climb, would automatically mean he isn't capable of doing a solo effort on the flat afterwards. Pogacar being more punchy on short efforts and being better skilled as well as better built physically for cobbles, surely should have no bearing on Evenepoel's rouleur capabilities? Getting dropped doesn't have to mean he is spent, there is simply a limit to how fast he can go on a climb like this, and likely Pogacar's limit here is higher.

 

[Nick2413]

I don't see how getting dropped on a steep 4 minute cobbled climb, would automatically mean he isn't capable of doing a solo effort on the flat afterwards. Pogacar being more punchy on short efforts and being better skilled as well as better built physically for cobbles, surely should have no bearing on Evenepoel's rouleur capabilities? Getting dropped doesn't have to mean he is spent, there is simply a limit to how fast he can go on a climb like this, and likely Pogacar's limit here is higher.

That was also supposed to be the story for the last 2 monuments, especially in Ronde with the headwind we heard about all week. But chasing groups involving superior TTer(s) continued to lose time to the solo rider in front. At any rate, I think Pog and Remco are close enough in TT ability (but Remco significantly stronger) that whoever comes over the top first would be able to keep it together if the gap is 10+ seconds. I am expecting Remco to be in better form and take the win this year though.

 

[Berniece]

At any rate, I think Pog and Remco are close enough in TT ability (but Remco significantly stronger)

how can you be close enough but one is significantly stronger?

 

[Nick2413]

how can you be close enough but one is significantly stronger?

You have to be trolling. Close enough in the finale of a monument where raw TT ability becomes a secondary factor, like we’ve seen countless times. But in a regular 30k flat TT I’d expect 30-60 seconds win by Remco.

 

[RedheadDane]

how can you be close enough but one is significantly stronger?

You know the saying; everyone is equal, some are more equal than others.

 

[Berniece]

You have to be trolling. Close enough in the finale of a monument where raw TT ability becomes a secondary factor, like we’ve seen countless times. But in a regular 30k flat TT I’d expect 30-60 seconds win by Remco.

No, I really didn’t understand what you meant, but thank you for clarifying.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That was also supposed to be the story for the last 2 monuments, especially in Ronde with the headwind we heard about all week. But chasing groups involving superior TTer(s) continued to lose time to the solo rider in front. At any rate, I think Pog and Remco are close enough in TT ability (but Remco significantly stronger) that whoever comes over the top first would be able to keep it together if the gap is 10+ seconds. I am expecting Remco to be in better form and take the win this year though.

Sorry but no. There is a big difference between fresh TT ability, and rouleur ability after 250k of racing. I've already used the same example between Van der Poel's solo wins and those of Evenepoel, but the same goes for Pogacar (but less extreme than Van der Poel). Pogacar went solo 18k to the finish, basically on the last big climb. His timegap at the finish to Van der Poel? 17 seconds. Except for the initial acceleration, not that much was added on the flat towards the line. When Evenepoel went solo in Liège, he had 18 seconds to a chasing group (which used to be the peloton) on the top of the final climb. In the next 13km of flat he expanded his gap to 48s, while even starting celebrations 3k from the finish. You could argue that unlike Van der Poel in Ronde, the chasers were looking at each other, except that Vlasov (who had not worked in the chase before RaF because Bahrein were still there) also got a gap, but was taken back by these same chasers right before the line. If they were truly not organized or committed, he as well would have been able to stay clear. So at the least, they had the speed to keep another solo rider in check.
At the WCC, Evenepoel expanded his lead over a group of chasers who were 100% committed to racing for a medal, steadily to 2 minutes. This group was caught by the peloton in the final kms, while Evenepoel did not lose one second of his lead to the peloton.

Pogacar seems to have a (much) easier time getting a gap and seems to be able to expend it slightly initially and then hold it. His gap in Strade last year, i remembered it as an insane solo where he obliterated the field... 38 seconds to Valverde. Fresh TT ability has little to do with it. Show me the 250+k races that Ganna or Tony Martin dominated, they don't exist.

 

[Oldermanish]

Sorry but no. There is a big difference between fresh TT ability, and rouleur ability after 250k of racing. I've already used the same example between Van der Poel's solo wins and those of Evenepoel, but the same goes for Pogacar (but less extreme than Van der Poel). Pogacar went solo 18k to the finish, basically on the last big climb. His timegap at the finish to Van der Poel? 17 seconds. Except for the initial acceleration, not that much was added on the flat towards the line. When Evenepoel went solo in Liège, he had 18 seconds to a chasing group (which used to be the peloton) on the top of the final climb. In the next 13km of flat he expanded his gap to 48s, while even starting celebrations 3k from the finish. You could argue that unlike Van der Poel in Ronde, the chasers were looking at each other, except that Vlasov (who had not worked in the chase before RaF because Bahrein were still there) also got a gap, but was taken back by these same chasers right before the line. If they were truly not organized or committed, he as well would have been able to stay clear. So at the least, they had the speed to keep another solo rider in check.
At the WCC, Evenepoel expanded his lead over a group of chasers who were 100% committed to racing for a medal, steadily to 2 minutes. This group was caught by the peloton in the final kms, while Evenepoel did not lose one second of his lead to the peloton.

Pogacar seems to have a (much) easier time getting a gap and seems to be able to expend it slightly initially and then hold it. His gap in Strade last year, i remembered it as an insane solo where he obliterated the field... 38 seconds to Valverde. Fresh TT ability has little to do with it. Show me the 250+k races that Ganna or Tony Martin dominated, they don't exist.

Comparing races is abstract at best. There is a point where the "chasers" recognize they are racing for lesser places and are motivated to use as little effort as possible to pursue. MvP didn't have the luxury of getting off the gas.
They are different races, days and definitely different "chasers".....a group vs. solo, killer finisher.

 

[Nick2413]

Sorry but no. There is a big difference between fresh TT ability, and rouleur ability after 250k of racing. I've already used the same example between Van der Poel's solo wins and those of Evenepoel, but the same goes for Pogacar (but less extreme than Van der Poel). Pogacar went solo 18k to the finish, basically on the last big climb. His timegap at the finish to Van der Poel? 17 seconds. Except for the initial acceleration, not that much was added on the flat towards the line. When Evenepoel went solo in Liège, he had 18 seconds to a chasing group (which used to be the peloton) on the top of the final climb. In the next 13km of flat he expanded his gap to 48s, while even starting celebrations 3k from the finish. You could argue that unlike Van der Poel in Ronde, the chasers were looking at each other, except that Vlasov (who had not worked in the chase before RaF because Bahrein were still there) also got a gap, but was taken back by these same chasers right before the line. If they were truly not organized or committed, he as well would have been able to stay clear. So at the least, they had the speed to keep another solo rider in check.
At the WCC, Evenepoel expanded his lead over a group of chasers who were 100% committed to racing for a medal, steadily to 2 minutes. This group was caught by the peloton in the final kms, while Evenepoel did not lose one second of his lead to the peloton.

Pogacar seems to have a (much) easier time getting a gap and seems to be able to expend it slightly initially and then hold it. His gap in Strade last year, i remembered it as an insane solo where he obliterated the field... 38 seconds to Valverde. Fresh TT ability has little to do with it. Show me the 250+k races that Ganna or Tony Martin dominated, they don't exist.

Pretty sure I’m agreeing with you on most of this. I just don’t think it’s automatically a given that he gets back on the final run in if he gets dropped.

 

[Rackham]

Sorry but no. There is a big difference between fresh TT ability, and rouleur ability after 250k of racing. I've already used the same example between Van der Poel's solo wins and those of Evenepoel, but the same goes for Pogacar (but less extreme than Van der Poel). Pogacar went solo 18k to the finish, basically on the last big climb. His timegap at the finish to Van der Poel? 17 seconds. Except for the initial acceleration, not that much was added on the flat towards the line.

Not quite. Pogacar almost doubled his lead of about 14 seconds at the top of the Paterberg, i.e. it went up to 28 seconds at one point heading into the finish on the flat. He ITT'd away from Van der Poel pretty convincingly & only lost time at the end because he sat up & celebrated.

After 270km in Flanders it was amazingballs & not one rider (not even someone like Evenepoel) can be compared to this performance until he does the same in the same race.