Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[johnymax]

Hmm very dubious claim giving the timeline of Remco and what WT he participated in. (or i"m reading more into it than you intended).

Joined in 2019 at 19year old.
Started the season 2020 with 2 victories early season (no WT since covid hit.) cycling started again in august --> (won WT stage race), then the crash happened.
in 2021 he didn't have an early season.
in 2022 his early season (e.g before LBL win.). he partipated in only 2 WT stage races. Tirreno didn't go well (11th but was very active and tried) Itulzia he was 4th (3minutes ahead of Roglic)
2023 is now.

So just want to point out that the lack of data doesn't mean its 'bad'. This is his second full early season (i'm excluding the early season he went from Junior to profs for obvious reasons). So yes, he never had a better start, but on the other hand its only the second time.. so don't know how much weight that statement has as such)

Yes, you are right. It's normal for Remco to improve from the past seasons. He is still young, he had that terrible crash in 2020, he finished a GT for the first time in his career last year, so his best ever start of the season should have been expected. And I think we should all agree that Remco has never been as good in March as he has been this season. He'll probably be even better in May.

But my answer was more directed to the statement of Roglic having the best ever early season form.
For example I can't remember when was the last time Roglič did a worse ITT than the one in T-A this season. So rest assured, he has still more room to grow.

 

[Andy schleck]

While true, i think Remco is not pushing it in that sense. Its not like Vingegaard or Kuss. 62-63kg for 1m71 is about a bmi of >21. Don't think that is extreme for a prof athelete.
(Vingegaard for example is flirting with 19).

Vingegaard weight at the tour is less than 60 kg.
It's 58/59 kg.

 

[Andy schleck]

He also said even 1 or 2 kg would make a tremendous difference

We may finally see the pre crash Remco again

This remco is better than remco pre crash.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So what do you think? Is he...The New Froome?

I will let it slide for this one time, but you are skating on thin ice, mister!

Vingegaard weight at the tour is less than 60 kg.
It's 58/59 kg.

Soooooo... Remco could stand to lose another 6kg!
9W/kg here we come!

This remco is better than remco pre crash.

Indeed.

 

[houtdffan]

Yes, you are right. It's normal for Remco to improve from the past seasons. He is still young, he had that terrible crash in 2020, he finished a GT for the first time in his career last year, so his best ever start of the season should have been expected. And I think we should all agree that Remco has never been as good in March as he has been this season. He'll probably be even better in May.

But my answer was more directed to the statement of Roglic having the best ever early season form.
For example I can't remember when was the last time Roglič did a worse ITT than the one in T-A this season. So rest assured, he has still more room to grow.

Rog in past years wasn't winning multiple WT stage races. He struggled at PN last year and got mauled at Pais Vasco. It's a much different Rog this year

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Rog in past years wasn't winning multiple WT stage races. He struggled at PN last year and got mauled at Pais Vasco. It's a much different Rog this year

Last year was not a good year for our friends Argo from start to finish. Shoulder, knee, crashes…Not a representative yet.

 

[Red Rick]

He also said even 1 or 2 kg would make a tremendous difference

We may finally see the pre crash Remco again

Let me get this straight.

Evenepoel won Liege, Worlds and Vuelta in one year, but he's still not back to his level of when he was winning much higher level races like Pologne or Burgos?

 

[hayneplane]

Let me get this straight.

Evenepoel won Liege, Worlds and Vuelta in one year, but he's still not back to his level of when he was winning much higher level races like Pologne or Burgos?

Performance level in terms of the way his level was trending post Covid break yes I think he was absolutely flying back then and Burgos especially had a stacked field due it being the first major event of the resumed season and he crushed everyone in both Burgos and Poland.

He looked like he was floating up the Sormano in Lombardia and had he stayed on his bike victory seemed inevitable. He would have been very hot favourite for the Giro but obviously we can’t just say he would have won it.

It’s that expected development that I think people are mainly referencing in saying he is back to his pre crush level as in that his potential is now clearly that he can be the rider we thought he was going to be had the crash not happened.

 

[tobydawq]

Performance level in terms of the way his level was trending post Covid break yes I think he was absolutely flying back then and Burgos especially had a stacked field due it being the first major event of the resumed season and he crushed everyone in both Burgos and Poland.

He looked like he was floating up the Sormano in Lombardia and had he stayed on his bike victory seemed inevitable. He would have been very hot favourite for the Giro but obviously we can’t just say he would have won it.

It’s that expected development that I think people are mainly referencing in saying he is back to his pre crush level as in that his potential is now clearly that he can be the rider we thought he was going to be had the crash not happened.

So he didn't crush the opposition in Liège or Wollongong last year, or how am I to understand this?

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

So he didn't crush the opposition in Liège or Wollongong last year, or how am I to understand this?

Have you forgot that the others didnt peak for these races and they didn’t really care about him when he attacked?

 

[hayneplane]

So he didn't crush the opposition in Liège or Wollongong last year, or how am I to understand this?

We didn’t see him fully complete his big goals (Lombardia/Giro) in that form curve so can’t directly compare but I would say that yes the Liege and Worlds efforts were very much in the ballpark of where his 2020 peak shape was likely to be but imo just a fraction below 2020 though this is subjective.

 

[Red Rick]

What is 2020 form based on? Just looking good in Lombardia? Because Evenepoel is the guy you'd expect to just attack Sormano if he's confident he can drop everyone there.

And the first races post-lockdown were super weird in general. Loads of riders were absolutely nowhere, and the overall level of riders needed to correct itself.

 

[Extinction]

The big thing, however, is that the crash stunted his growth curve. Without it he'd already have done the Giro in 2020, then another GT properly prepared in 2021 (Tour? Vuelta?) and thus he definitely would have been riding the Tour this year. At any rate, last season was a demonstration that his trajectory is back on track. If he meets his objectives in the upcoming Giro, expectations more or less align with those before the Lombardia fall off the bridge.

 

[Red Rick]

The big thing, however, is that the crash stunted his growth curve. Without it he'd already have done the Giro in 2020, then another GT properly prepared in 2021 (Tour? Vuelta?) and thus he definitely would have been riding the Tour this year. At any rate, last season was a demonstration that his trajectory is back on track. If he meets his objectives in the upcoming Giro, expectations more or less align with those before the Lombardia fall off the bridge.

Keyword being expectations.

 

[Extinction]

Keyword being expectations.

Exactly, which were higher than anybody at his age in the history of the sport. So what's your point?

 

[houtdffan]

Performance level in terms of the way his level was trending post Covid break yes I think he was absolutely flying back then and Burgos especially had a stacked field due it being the first major event of the resumed season and he crushed everyone in both Burgos and Poland.

He looked like he was floating up the Sormano in Lombardia and had he stayed on his bike victory seemed inevitable. He would have been very hot favourite for the Giro but obviously we can’t just say he would have won it.

It’s that expected development that I think people are mainly referencing in saying he is back to his pre crush level as in that his potential is now clearly that he can be the rider we thought he was going to be had the crash not happened.

Exactly

 

[CHGJ2000]

Performance level in terms of the way his level was trending post Covid break yes I think he was absolutely flying back then and Burgos especially had a stacked field due it being the first major event of the resumed season and he crushed everyone in both Burgos and Poland.

He looked like he was floating up the Sormano in Lombardia and had he stayed on his bike victory seemed inevitable. He would have been very hot favourite for the Giro but obviously we can’t just say he would have won it.

It’s that expected development that I think people are mainly referencing in saying he is back to his pre crush level as in that his potential is now clearly that he can be the rider we thought he was going to be had the crash not happened.

He got beaten by Sosa in the final MTF in Burgos and perhaps if there wasn't crosswinds on the day of the first MTF he'd have lost there as well. Objectively, his level there was not even remotely close to nowadays and even accounting for the massive improvements we've seen across the board over the last couple years, Blanco wasn't a great performance.

 

[Netserk]

What is 2020 form based on?

Hallucinations.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The only thing you can't be sure of is if he is now at the level he could have been at this moment in time, had he never crashed in Lombardia. Expectations for him might have been higher, since everything seemed to go his way and everything he tried, he was successful at. Where as now people are more sceptical because since (/due to?) his crash, he has had some failures. So expectations have been kept more in check. Before Pogacar lost the Tour and imploded on two stages, he was also deemed invincible.

But saying he is not at his precrash level is obviously absurd. In 2020 Algarve he won the TT with 10 or 20 seconds on Dennis and Küng. Last year he won the TT in Algarve on the same course (few km longer though) with a cool minute ahead of Küng. His solo in Poland was impressive, but how does that compare to the WCC and Liège? Burgos was great, but Pico Jano and Les Praeres were a level or two above. Etc.

 

[Andre]

The big thing, however, is that the crash stunted his growth curve. Without it he'd already have done the Giro in 2020, then another GT properly prepared in 2021 (Tour? Vuelta?) and thus he definitely would have been riding the Tour this year. At any rate, last season was a demonstration that his trajectory is back on track. If he meets his objectives in the upcoming Giro, expectations more or less align with those before the Lombardia fall off the bridge.

Good point. We need alignment.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well what Bruyneel first said is that Remco is 4kg above his lowest ever weight. I think this may actually be true but we need to bear in mind that allegedly his lowest ever weight was around 60kg in the Giro 2021 while in the Vuelta last year he was 63kg or just a bit lower so if his Vuelta weight is the target he won't shed more than 1-2kg.

I just listened to this podcast, and Bruyneel is talking about 4kg compared to the Vuelta, not "lowest ever/Giro". Which would be further evidence that he was weighing significantly less than the 63kg they claimed to be targeting.

 

[Extinction]

If he loses 4 kg and retains his power, they won't have anything for him it will be a massacre.

 

[Riek s]

We can all fantasize about that, but 4kg before the Giro isn't going to happen. Even if it would physically be possible to drop 4kg, it will come at a huge cost to try and do that in month and a bit.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Isn't there a tumb rule saying 0,5 kg per week is doable for cyclists without a big risk for energy deficit? So dropping about 2 kg before Giro start should be within reach, 4 kg sounds very unrealistic.

 

[Didinho]

Isn't there a tumb rule saying 0,5 kg per week is doable for cyclists without a big risk for energy deficit? So dropping about 2 kg before Giro start should be within reach, 4 kg sounds very unrealistic.

He can also lose weight during the Giro. I think he doesn't need to lose that much in the next month. Just fine tuning. He's doing the same schedule prior to the Vuelta, so I'm assuming they know what still needs to happen. He's always good after altitude camps, I'm not worried. He's on the right track, no crashes, no sickness. Looking forward.