Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[red_flanders]

I 100% disagree with this. Sports change, which means the physiological requirements change. Training changes as well, and adaptation to new training changes are pretty individual too.

Sure, adaptations to training are individual. What you say isn’t wrong. But I said “dominant“ riders. That isn’t really going to change. The big talents are always a level above.

And my larger point wasn’t at all about training, it was about whether aero bikes were going to give Remco more or less an advantage. Seems clear to me it’s less.

And despite the real advantages in bike aerodynamics, it’s still a relatively minor factor compared to the rider. The rider’s CDA is a MUCH larger factor than the bike’s.

 

[Berniece]

It is a data point of level at given time. And 7th in the Dauphine, winning the ITT, when taking into account illness is hardly the worst possible prep. TdFs have been won on less. Pogacar was 4th in the 2020 Dauphine, dropping 1'30 on the MTF. Vingegaard got beaten in breakaways in the 2021 Dauphine. Etc.

He lost to riders like Gee, Vlasov, and De Plus... If that isn't a sign his prep was ***, I don't know what is.

 

[Netserk]

But I said “dominant“ riders. That isn’t really going to change. The big talents are always a level above.

So you also think LeMond would be a level above if he was born a decade later?

 

[houtdffan]

He was 7th in the Dauphine, and apart from Isola he was closer to Almeida than to Vingegaard, who had an even worse preperation.

Remco literally was 10 minutes ahead of Almeida and 3 minutes behind Vingo. Not sure how you get he was closer to Almeida

 

[Red Rick]

Remco literally was 10 minutes ahead of Almeida and 3 minutes behind Vingo. Not sure how you get he was closer to Almeida

Brainfart, I meant the MTFs specifically

 

[houtdffan]

Brainfart, I meant the MTFs specifically

he still was closer to Vingo than Almeida, else he wouldn't have finished 10 min ahead.

How much did he gain on Almeida in the TT and stage 11?

 

[red_flanders]

So you also think LeMond would be a level above if he was born a decade later?

Sure I said that.

 

[Netserk]

Sure I said that.

Unless he doesn't count as a big talent or your "always" didn't mean always, then you sure did.

 

[greyclouds]

Is Pogacar always going to be so lucky that Evenepoel crashes in April and has a bad preparation for the TDF? Or are we just ignoring that piece of context on why he lost that much time on a MTF?

Based on past and expected future performances, Pogacar has no reason to particularly fear Remco at the Tour de France, even with optimal preparation.

Pogacar is performing at all-time best level; Remco is not, and there's no indication that he will, simple as that. Will he ever get to that level? Maybe but who knows.

 

[red_flanders]

Unless he doesn't count as a big talent or your "always" didn't mean always, then you sure did.

there are about 20 different ways to phrase your question that aren’t putting words in my mouth.

Of course Lemond would have dominated. If he was using the same “training” as everyone else.

I hope there won’t be a list of riders you’ll ask me to explain.

 

[Netserk]

there are about 20 different ways to phrase your question that aren’t putting words in my mouth.

Of course Lemond would have dominated. If he was using the same “training” as everyone else.

I hope there won’t be a list of riders you’ll ask me to explain.

I'll offer a more open question then. Was there any of the "big talents" who "dominated" in the 90's who wouldn't be "a level above" a decade earlier?

 

[AmRacer]

I have several times asked for a name change on this thread, but now I think '.....Eddy Merckx...' is just fine.

'...is the next Tadej Pogačar thread' would be too much.

 

[Cycling111]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1922711381356273840

View: https://x.com/Eurosport_IT/status/1922711381356273840
Please provide a translation or summary for non English content. Thank you!

 

[Berniece]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1922711381356273840

View: https://x.com/Eurosport_IT/status/1922711381356273840

They say this every year

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

They say this every year

According to Bruyneel, Evenepoel and Foré aren't getting along very well.

 

[Berniece]

According to Bruyneel, Evenepoel and Foré aren't getting along very well.

Doesn’t surprise me. I think Foré with his background doesn’t accept the decisions Evenepoel is able to make in the team. But don’t go to Ineos, go to Bora.

 

[Oldman]

He lost to riders like Gee, Vlasov, and De Plus... If that isn't a sign his prep was ***, I don't know what is.

Wait...we're talking about the guy hit by a mail truck?
You can't know the effacy of your very intense race program until...when, genius? Until you race. He definitely performed until the gauge was on empty and, hopefully learned from it.
Shame he isn't a US rider. No one pays attention to you until you've won a Tour.

 

[Berniece]

Wait...we're talking about the guy hit by a mail truck?
You can't know the effacy of your very intense race program until...when, genius? Until you race. He definitely performed until the gauge was on empty and, hopefully learned from it.
Shame he isn't a US rider. No one pays attention to you until you've won a Tour.

We were talking about last year (2024). That his preparation for TDF was ***, which showed in 2 ways:
1. His performance in Dauphine where he was beaten by riders he should easily beat
2. His performance in 3rd week of the TDF, which showed his base was lower and he wasn't able to perform as well as in the first two weeks of the TDF. You saw the same with Vingegaard. The amount of effort accumulated over all those days was too much for them, which resulted in weaker performances later in the Tour. Because their prep wasn't as it should be, too rushed.

 

[Cycling111]

In 6 years as Pro, Remco hasn't won any of the seven major one-week races.
To think that he didn't win the Dauphiné because of his preparation is somewhat misleading. He's never won, so why would he win that time? And against Roglic, who has won several of those races.

Remco was already beaten by Jorgenson at Paris-Nice.
And let's not underestimate Carlos Rodriguez's performance in that race.
Carlos Rodriguez won Romandy last year. The reality is that he has one of those seven races that Remco didn't, and Rodriguez was on par with Jorgenson in Dauphiné, who already beat Remco in one of those races.

Besides, he had much more training time than Vingegaard and was still inferior to him in TDF.
Remco wouldn't have been in contention for the Tour anyway. He's never had a climbing level similar to Pogacar and Vingegaard. Everyone expected his fight to be on the podium against Roglic.

 

[Red Rick]

We were talking about last year (2024). That his preparation for TDF was ***, which showed in 2 ways:
1. His performance in Dauphine where he was beaten by riders he should easily beat
2. His performance in 3rd week of the TDF, which showed his base was lower and he wasn't able to perform as well as in the first two weeks of the TDF. You saw the same with Vingegaard. The amount of effort accumulated over all those days was too much for them, which resulted in weaker performances later in the Tour. Because their prep wasn't as it should be, too rushed.

Dauphine shape does not equate to TdF shape.

And you cannot confidently claim Evenepoel was worse in the Alps than in the Pyrenees.

 

[Berniece]

Dauphine shape does not equate to TdF shape.

And you cannot confidently claim Evenepoel was worse in the Alps than in the Pyrenees.

Dauphine shape was an indicator that his preparation was rushed.

Is your narrative that Evenepoel was perfectly prepared for TDF last year? And that there isn't any margin to gain if he wouldn't have crashed in april?

 

[Red Rick]

Dauphine shape was an indicator that his preparation was rushed.

Is your narrative that Evenepoel was perfectly prepared for TDF last year? And that there isn't any margin to gain if he wouldn't have crashed in april?

I think every performance at the Tour suggests he was at his best level ever by far, and he was super consistent throughout the Tour as well.

I just think it's strange to blame subpar preperation when someone performance at a career highest level and when the guys that were better have always shown a higher floor and ceiling.

But this is just the recurring narrative. He didn't become the new dominant GT force, and so we're retrospectively looking for reasons why, when even in his early days he wasn't the natural climber that would be necessary to achieve the level he was projected at. FFS we're still talking about a crash from 5 years ago half the time.

 

[Berniece]

I think every performance at the Tour suggests he was at his best level ever by far, and he was super consistent throughout the Tour as well.

I just think it's strange to blame subpar preperation when someone performance at a career highest level and when the guys that were better have always shown a higher floor and ceiling.

But this is just the recurring narrative. He didn't become the new dominant GT force, and so we're retrospectively looking for reasons why, when even in his early days he wasn't the natural climber that would be necessary to achieve the level he was projected at. FFS we're still talking about a crash from 5 years ago half the time.

I don't find it strange, he's still young and improving by growing older and becoming stronger. So he can have a bad preparation and still have a better performance. Look at Vingegaard... He also rode his best numbers and had a bad preparation. We also expect him to be much better this year with optimal preparation.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I just think it's strange to blame subpar preperation when someone performance at a career highest level and when the guys that were better have always shown a higher floor and ceiling.

Bernal claimed to push higher numbers in the Tour after he had suffered a lot from his back problems during the year, the TDF he got dropped from a peloton led by Van Aert.
Vingegaard claimed he pushed his best numbers last year after also being involved in that crash in Itzulia, with even less prep.
Maybe Pogacar should try and crash some more before the TDF, as it can't do any harm and in the best case scenario, he will push even better numbers.
I also think we can all agree that, like Evenepoel last year, losing 2-3kg in less than a month is not ideal.

Yes, i think Pogacar's crash in Liege in '23 was a big reason why he was so off form in the TDF. Seems quite disingenuous to assume crashing in the middle of your prep, needing rehab and a short build up is not having an effect. If it wouldn't then why wouldn't others simply copy that shorter build up (excluding the actual crashing). Because apparently you can get to 100% with a short prep like Evenepoel and Vingegaard had last year. Should be a trend.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Bernal claimed to push higher numbers in the Tour after he had suffered a lot from his back problems during the year, the TDF he got dropped from a peloton led by Van Aert.
Vingegaard claimed he pushed his best numbers last year after also being involved in that crash in Itzulia, with even less prep.

I do think Rick meant not just absolute numbers (which vary due to other things we cant mention) but his relative performance vs the rest of the competition which was dominant and quite consistent. I think he can get better but there was never a stage when I thought: "he lost minutes here due to shallow base"