Cadel Evans
Omloop
Strade
San remo
De Panne
E3
G-W
Dwaars
RVV
Roubaix
Amstel
Fleche
Lbl
Frankfurt
Copenhagen
San Sebastian
Hamburg
Bretagne
Quebec
Montreal
Lombardia
That’s 21 races, meaning Pogacar would need to be clearly favoured in 15 to reach 70%. In which of these races do you favour MVDP?
Taking a quick look since we are talking about winning the race while beating the other (it doesn't matter if Pogacar beats MVP if he can't win the classic. I think we both agree on this).
If they both peaked for each race and a good startlist was in the race:
Cadel Evans
De Panne
Copenhagen
Hamburg
These races neither of them would win. Sprint classics.
Omloop
MSR
E3
GW
Dwaars
PR
Quebec
I would favor MVP
SB
AGR
FW
LBL
Frankfurt
CSS
Bretagne
Montreal
GdL
In 16 races, Pogacar can actually win 9 races, MVP 7 races.
56% - Pogacar
44% - MVP
I didn't add the WC but this year, Pogacar is more favorite to win it.
Feel free to disagree. Even if Bretagne is the only race where I wasn't so sure but the last 70 km are hard (250 km race) and UAE would probably cook MVP before Pogacar's attack.