Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Cookster15]

Well, this is obvious: body fat mass. But when it comes to sportsmen in top form BMI vs VO2max relation is more complicated as they all have low body fat %. Then it's about other aspects (like bone mass, muscles efficiency, cardiac output etc), some of them are associated with BMI some are not.

Thanks for the follow up. But this raises more questions. I always thought Remco's relative VO2 max (milliliters per Kilogram per minute) was extremely high - close to 90?

Since the 2022 Vuelta Remco seemed to have very low body fat % and that would help his relative VO2 max as well.

So I am still not convinced of BMI as being a better indicator of climbing than simply watts per kilo. I think BMI is just an assumed truth in cycling circles. A rider who is shorter but stockier can have similarly low bodyfat % as riders like Vingegaard. As I said at the beginning, the physics of climbing doesn't care about appearance. It only cares about sustained watts per kilo.

But ultimately we are all guessing. We don't know Remco's true watts and we don't know his true weight. But I do know he was climbing very well in the 2024 Tour de France.

 

[Berniece]

He won't have an excuse this season unless the blind faithful conjure up a defense.

Yeah, such a weak excuse that he crashed in december, and didn't build up a proper base.

 

[AmRacer]

Yeah, such a weak excuse that he crashed in december, and didn't build up a proper base.

Better crashing hard in April

 

[SHAD0W93]

Cause Pogacar does not need tactics. He's that strong. Has great bike handling/positioning and has that strong of a team to back him up as well.

Also even Pogacar has had a few (tactical) mistakes, and they tend to happen when he was not sure he was stronger than the rest. Tdf 22, Paris Roubaix, WC 22 come to mind.

I’d argue Pogacar’s mistake was believing he was stronger than Jumbo especially with his showboating during the stage he got one two TKO punched.


On Evenepoel I think he should do the Giro or Tour as support and go for stages depending on what they decide. Hopefully he has a good winter and we can see him improve at Bora.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So I am still not convinced of BMI as being a better indicator of climbing than simply watts per kilo. I think BMI is just an assumed truth in cycling circles. A rider who is shorter but stockier can have similarly low bodyfat % as riders like Vingegaard. As I said at the beginning, the physics of climbing doesn't care about appearance. It only cares about sustained watts per kilo.

I never implied it. You misunderstood me. Obviously w/kg is a direct measure of power per mass and climbing ability. My point was to explain why there's an inverse relation between BMI and relative VO2max and therefore, why the best climbers are usually cyclists with very low BMI. Obviously it case of top sportsmen it's more blurred (as all of them have very low fat mass and low BMI). So, besides BMI related factors (bone and fat mass, height-related stuff) there are others non-related to BMI (like muscles composition, metabolism) which strongly affect VO2max (and therefore w/kg).

As for Remco's VO2max, it could be around 90 (when he's closer to 60 kg, not to 65 kg).

 

[peterfin]

I never implied it. You misunderstood me. Obviously w/kg is a direct measure of power per mass and climbing ability. My point was to explain why there's an inverse relation between BMI and relative VO2max and therefore, why the best climbers are usually cyclists with very low BMI. Obviously it case of top sportsmen it's more blurred (as all of them have very low fat mass and low BMI). So, besides BMI related factors (bone and fat mass, height-related stuff) there are others non-related to BMI (like muscles composition, metabolism) which strongly affect VO2max (and therefore w/kg).

As for Remco's VO2max, it could be around 90 (when he's closer to 60 kg, not to 65 kg).

Prior to his 19th birthday (and prior to turning pro) his VO2max was measured at 85. An article mentioned he weighted 61 kg at that time but his weight measurements are always been all over the place so it was likely a few kg more if you see pictures of him then vs now. So better training and a lower fat % has probably increased it to about 90. That looks like a reasonable number.

 

[Berniece]

What I think was most important in that latest interview with Evenpoel was the following section. Basically confirming what some of us in this thread were also saying. At least he ha the same hope as the fans in this thread, that he will still be able to actually compete with Pogacar.

Especially uphill, you seem to be fighting an unequal battle against Pogacar. It’s admirable that you don’t give up. But how on earth do you ever close that gap?
Evenepoel: “Through specific training sessions at extremely high intensity. In recent years, because of crashes, injuries, rehabilitation and a lack of a solid base, I’ve barely been able to do those, rarely or never. After a proper, trouble-free winter, I really want to put serious work into that now. If I manage that, it’s quite possible I’ll take two or even three steps forward compared to last season.”

 

[AmRacer]

What I think was most important in that latest interview with Evenpoel was the following section. Basically confirming what some of us in this thread were also saying. At least he ha the same hope as the fans in this thread, that he will still be able to actually compete with Pogacar.

If he takes two or three steps forward compared to 2025 season, maybe he reach Paris.

 

[Red Rick]

New theory just dropped. 3 time World ITT champion hasn't done high intensity training for years.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

New theory just dropped. 3 time World ITT champion hasn't done high intensity training for years.

Z2 mantra repeated by Pogi's ex-coach (San Milan) fooled his rivals. As a result, only Pogi does Z4 and Z5 sessions and that's why he's dominating so much.

 

[AmRacer]

It never ends.

"I thought about it in the shower today," says an ambitious, improved, and fitter Evenepoel: "Remco is flying again"

Remco Evenepoel is eager to compete in the Tour de France. The 25-year-old Belgian from Soudal-Quick Step embarked on a rollercoaster ride over a year ago, which left him feeling sad, euphoric, angry,...

www.idlprocycling.com

But if I had to choose between this year's situation and last year's, I'd choose this year. His basic condition is okay. It's now a matter of those last few percent."

 

[Berniece]

New theory just dropped. 3 time World ITT champion hasn't done high intensity training for years.

Like clockwork

 

[Oldman]

Cause Pogacar does not need tactics. He's that strong. Has great bike handling/positioning and has that strong of a team to back him up as well.

Also even Pogacar has had a few (tactical) mistakes, and they tend to happen when he was not sure he was stronger than the rest. Tdf 22, Paris Roubaix, WC 22 come to mind.



Every rider outside of Pogacar needs to ride tactically to a certain degree. Remco probably needs to ride less tactically than most of his rivals. That said, I have no clue what you are talking about in this second quote. i'm thinking you're confusing races. or mixing them up. I'm not sure.

In any case, remco is considered one of the big dogs. They all look at him, try to eat his plate. We'll see if or when Lipo gets the same status how he responds. One thing to ride as an underdog that people give less attention to, another to ride as one of the main favourites in every race you turn up to.

As for Lipo not getting as much attention till now, it's cause he was only starting to ride results people pay attention to halfway 2024. He's also not that young relative speaking.

I agree that he needs to ride tactically and that would include surfing the attacks of #2,3 threats just to advance through the peloton. He tends to a)sit on Pogacar's wheel and suffer when Pogi puts a dig in when terrain favors him b) watch other attacks he could attach to with very little effort to get a gap. Sometimes it appears he knows that he just lacks that jump and concedes to a tactical tempo. That's OK and he should now know what training is necessary to be responsive if it's important to his GT goals.
Lipo is new but not unknown. Like Del Toro: Jonas and Remco need to use those guys to be ahead of the counter attacks, IMO. Passively following Tadej's train grinds all comers.

 

[Oldman]

How is that relevant at all to what I said?

It would be relevant to demonstrate how, in spite of your opinion that Lipowitz is tactically challenged: he still finishes ahead. Is he that much stronger or just tactically better than Remco? I think both.

 

[red_flanders]

New theory just dropped. 3 time World ITT champion hasn't done high intensity training for years.

Seems like the question is what he means by “extremely” high intensity workouts.

I would assume he means that he’s done some high intensity work, and he’s making a point about needing to step it up to another level.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

It would be relevant to demonstrate how, in spite of your opinion that Lipowitz is tactically challenged: he still finishes ahead. Is he that much stronger or just tactically better than Remco? I think both.

And I think neither

 

[Oldman]

What I think was most important in that latest interview with Evenpoel was the following section. Basically confirming what some of us in this thread were also saying. At least he ha the same hope as the fans in this thread, that he will still be able to actually compete with Pogacar.

That's what we hope he's able to do: stay healthy and complete a season of serious preparation.

 

[Cookster15]

I never implied it. You misunderstood me. Obviously w/kg is a direct measure of power per mass and climbing ability. My point was to explain why there's an inverse relation between BMI and relative VO2max and therefore, why the best climbers are usually cyclists with very low BMI. Obviously it case of top sportsmen it's more blurred (as all of them have very low fat mass and low BMI). So, besides BMI related factors (bone and fat mass, height-related stuff) there are others non-related to BMI (like muscles composition, metabolism) which strongly affect VO2max (and therefore w/kg).

As for Remco's VO2max, it could be around 90 (when he's closer to 60 kg, not to 65 kg).

Okay. I think the line is blurred on BMI in Remco’s case.

If Remco’s VO2 max is 90 at 60Kg then it would be about 83 at 65Kg - assuming his absolute VO2 max is constant (ml/minute)

I must admit my views on Remco’s ceiling are coloured by opinions I read about Cadel Evans in that era. It was claimed by some Evans wasn’t as talented as say Andy Schleck. The only way I could rationalise that view was Evans didn’t have the typical build of a climber - thin as a stick. Maybe Evans’s BMI was higher than Andy due to more muscle mass but then we knew Evans relative VO2 max was super high too (87 tested in AIS lab when he was a 20 year old MTBer). So in Evans’s case the inverse relationship between BMI and VO2 max didn’t hold. Watts per kilo wins.

A 2nd factor that colours my views on Remco’s climbing ability is the 2024 TdF. Obviously Pogacar was at an unreachable level but Remco was close to Vingo on some big mountain stages. That was the best we have seen Remco climb and that was compared to maybe the two best climbers the sport has ever seen. Many will say Vingo was injured and that is true. Yet Vingegaard still did his best ever W/Kg and Remco wasn’t disgraced.

And who can say Remco can’t improve on his 2024 TdF climbing level? He is still only 25.

 

[Berniece]

And who can say Remco can’t improve on his 2024 TdF climbing level? He is still only 25.

And might improve due to different training methods.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

@Cookster15

"Obviously Pogacar was at an unreachable level but Remco was close to Vingo on some big mountain stages"

My problem with this is that Remco didn't raise his level to Jonas level, Jonas dropped to Remco level. So when both are at their top level, the difference is still big

 

[Krzysztof_O]

And might improve due to different training methods.

It's a different team so maybe better preparation methods (especially regarding stage-racing) + Remco is still relatively young (older than Pogacar between 2023 and 2024 but not much older).

 

[Salvarani]

@Cookster15

"Obviously Pogacar was at an unreachable level but Remco was close to Vingo on some big mountain stages"

My problem with this is that Remco didn't raise his level to Jonas level, Jonas dropped to Remco level. So when both are at their top level, the difference is still big

Remco has age on his side vs Vinge though. There is a chance Remco could improve a little bit in new environment. That it could be really close sooner rather than later. Question is if it will be enough.

I guess one could also argue for how long Vinge can or will be motivated to be at "top level".

Like he will want to win the Giro to complete winning all three GTs and I would still favor him in a battle between them as of now.... but after that, Im not sure.

We will see.

 

[Cookster15]

@Cookster15

"Obviously Pogacar was at an unreachable level but Remco was close to Vingo on some big mountain stages"

My problem with this is that Remco didn't raise his level to Jonas level, Jonas dropped to Remco level. So when both are at their top level, the difference is still big

The flaw in your logic is the rest of the GC field that Remco beat. Remco was better than Almeida and Landa. Carlos Rodriguez and Adam Yates are handy climbers too. As for Jonas, sure his level dropped late in the 3rd week except Jonas did his best ever watts on PdB on stage 15 and Remco still beat Pantanis record by a minute.

But not sure why you assume Remco can't improve on his 2024 level? I am not even a big Remco fan but fair is fair 2024 TdF was a very good performance.

And Jonas is three years older. So likely he will be the first to decline. I still favor Vingegaard for the 2026 Giro but for how long after that? We will see.

 

[Berniece]

My problem with this is that Remco didn't raise his level to Jonas level, Jonas dropped to Remco level.

Based on what? Relative to Pogacar maybe, but that's because Pogacar became much better. But still everyone improved. Vingegaard improved compared to 2022-2023. So not sure why you say Jonas dropped his level.

 

[AmRacer]

Based on what? Relative to Pogacar maybe, but that's because Pogacar became much better. But still everyone improved. Vingegaard improved compared to 2022-2023. So not sure why you say Jonas dropped his level.

But I heard Remco hasn't improved since the 2022 Vuelta