The Shlecks and doping

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masking_agent said:
I'm sure they will and get a new < ahem> :rolleyes: "program" and will be taking off like jets in tour mountain stages in 2012. I'm anticipating witnessing something similar to 1999 Sestrieres where a certain rider annihilated the peloton.:rolleyes:
The proof will be in their time trialing performances.

After so many years as professionals, what we have seen so far is as good as it's ever going to get from either Schleck.

No amount of re-positioning on the bike or wind tunnel testing is going to make them go any faster at this point, not enough to come close to rivaling Contador on time.
 
Jun 15, 2010
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Berzin said:
The proof will be in their time trialing performances.

After so many years as professionals, what we have seen so far is as good as it's ever going to get from either Schleck.

No amount of re-positioning on the bike or wind tunnel testing is going to make them go any faster at this point, not enough to come close to rivaling Contador on time.
The Hog's "wind tunnel" is special.He wil make Andy faster for sure.
 
May 18, 2009
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Berzin said:
The proof will be in their time trialing performances.

After so many years as professionals, what we have seen so far is as good as it's ever going to get from either Schleck.

No amount of re-positioning on the bike or wind tunnel testing is going to make them go any faster at this point, not enough to come close to rivaling Contador on time.
I agree with the bolded, and the rest of your post. AS is only what 26 so he may get a little better, but not much. BTW in 2010 I think they were pretty close in the last TT.

My point is that we have seen the best that we will ever see out of AC, due to the fact now he is away from Bruhneel (ie whatever cover that provided at that time, plus perhaps the changing attitude real time of UCI in turning blind eyes/alerting) and had the suspension hanging over him, and will be under alot of suspicion in the future IF the UCI cleans up its act and he is wary of that fact.

AC came down in 2010 and 2011 from those crazy TT and climbing numbers from 2009 and before. Remember the stunt he pulled in the last TT in 09 when he beat Canc? Then he goes to struggling along the same lines as AS in TT's in 2010, and didn't dominate the TT's in the 2011 giro or TdF like in 09. I don't think that is a coincidence.

AC is coming back to AS, not the other way around.
 
ChrisE said:
AC came down in 2010 and 2011 from those crazy TT and climbing numbers from 2009 and before. Remember the stunt he pulled in the last TT in 09 when he beat Canc? Then he goes to struggling along the same lines as AS in TT's in 2010, and didn't dominate the TT's in the 2011 giro or TdF like in 09. I don't think that is a coincidence.

AC is coming back to AS, not the other way around.
Have you actually watched these days you mention? The 2009 and 2010 TTs at the TdF are completely different in all aspects. You obviously didn't watch the Giro, where Contador was up on Millar before taking a more risk averse approach towards the finish (I assume you mean Milan, not Nevegal, which he did dominate. This year's Tour the distance between him and Andy in Grenoble was only 20" less than it was in Annecy. Not bad for someone coming off a ridiculous Giro and who completely blew up 24hours earlier.

Everyone's (apart from Horner...) "numbers" are down from their peak 3-5 years ago. Andy was very young when he broke out in the 2007 Giro, but I wouldn't be surprised if his "numbers" from then (or say, 2008 AdH) are that much lower than this year's Tour.

I can agree to an extent that Andy has closed the gap from 2009, but there isn't actually much to support this argument. 2010 Tour they were equals, if you only count Madeleine (and maybe Tourmalet). It's improbable that Andy will beat Contador in a GT over the next few years, and if Contador only wants to do "just enough" to win by a minute or so we may never see them go full on H2H - Andy would have to change his racing style.

The Tour route, and the fact that Andy only races one stage race a year makes it difficult to compare the two.
 
May 18, 2009
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Ferminal said:
Have you actually watched these days you mention? The 2009 and 2010 TTs at the TdF are completely different in all aspects. You obviously didn't watch the Giro, where Contador was up on Millar before taking a more risk averse approach towards the finish (I assume you mean Milan, not Nevegal, which he did dominate. This year's Tour the distance between him and Andy in Grenoble was only 20" less than it was in Annecy. Not bad for someone coming off a ridiculous Giro and who completely blew up 24hours earlier.
Of course I watched it (or followed a ticker), but I didn't watch it I guess. Just yesterday I could have sworn I was watching a rerun of chaingate but grease monkey claims I wasn't. I haven't been drunk in over 2 weeks so I can't write it off to that. :confused:

Anyway, the only thing I see different in the 2009 and 2010 TdF TT's are AC's performance. I don't write it off to some tactical issue as you seem to be insinuating...AC would have buried AS if he could have in 2010 just like he did in 09. He was visibly stuggling on the bike in the 2010 one.

And, him completely blowing in 2011 makes the point, doesn't it? Would 09 AC completely blow up in 2011? Would 09 AC follow the wheels like he did in 2010? Would 09 AC be gapped right before AS chain broke like he was in 2010? Would 09 AC lose time like he did on the first mountain stage this year? I don't think so, and I write it off to him coming back to the pack. YMMV.

Everyone's (apart from Horner...) "numbers" are down from their peak 3-5 years ago. Andy was very young when he broke out in the 2007 Giro, but I wouldn't be surprised if his "numbers" from then (or say, 2008 AdH) are that much lower than this year's Tour.
It think you mean "aren't that much lower"??? If so, it seems you are agreeing with me....AC's numbers are down while AS's are constant or a little better. That is what I wrote, and my theory is because of AC not doping as much for a variety of reasons.

IF I am assuming wrong about what you mean, please clarify.

I can agree to an extent that Andy has closed the gap from 2009, but there isn't actually much to support this argument. 2010 Tour they were equals, if you only count Madeleine (and maybe Tourmalet). It's improbable that Andy will beat Contador in a GT over the next few years, and if Contador only wants to do "just enough" to win by a minute or so we may never see them go full on H2H - Andy would have to change his racing style.
Isn't much to support this argument about them being closer since 2009???? Did you watch the races??? :)

In 2010 they were equal IMO (with no Giro in AC), this year AS was better and if he wouldn't have raced so conservatively in the early mountain stages may have won the tour. Perhaps we can write that off to AC riding the Giro. I have never been of the opinion a GT raced 2 months earlier has that big of an effect. There have been doubles before, but I concede that is before the competition started peaking for one GT.

The Tour route, and the fact that Andy only races one stage race a year makes it difficult to compare the two
Not sure what this has to do with the subject. In a normal year AC races one GT a year as well, except when he comes off the beach and wins the Giro full of dopers then dominates the Vuelta.

Hmmmm, what year was that, and who was he riding for? :rolleyes:
 
ChrisE said:
Anyway, the only thing I see different in the 2009 and 2010 TdF TT's are AC's performance. I don't write it off to some tactical issue as you seem to be insinuating...AC would have buried AS if he could have in 2010 just like he did in 09. He was visibly stuggling on the bike in the 2010 one.
2009 = large hill.

2010 = completely flat, huge winds.

2011 = reasonable hill.

ChrisE said:
And, him completely blowing in 2011 makes the point, doesn't it? Would 09 AC completely blow up in 2011? Would 09 AC follow the wheels like he did in 2010? Would 09 AC be gapped right before AS chain broke like he was in 2010? Would 09 AC lose time like he did on the first mountain stage this year? I don't think so, and I write it off to him coming back to the pack. YMMV.
He blew up because he attacked 8km into a stage, rode full gas for 25km, and then did the same thing in the last 14km. He was no longer able to win the GC by this point in any case, hence why he did such a move.

ChrisE said:
It think you mean "aren't that much lower"??? If so, it seems you are agreeing with me....AC's numbers are down while AS's are constant or a little better. That is what I wrote, and my theory is because of AC not doping as much for a variety of reasons.

IF I am assuming wrong about what you mean, please clarify.
Well as a 22 year old I'd hope that Andy had plenty of room for natural growth. On the other hand, his unnatural side would have waned, just like it has for Contador, Evans, Basso etc. I don't buy into your argument that relative to the Schlecks, Contador's Clinical level has dropped.

ChrisE said:
Isn't much to support this argument about them being closer since 2009???? Did you watch the races??? :)

In 2010 they were equal IMO (with no Giro in AC), this year AS was better and if he wouldn't have raced so conservatively in the early mountain stages may have won the tour. Perhaps we can write that off to AC riding the Giro. I have never been of the opinion a GT raced 2 months earlier has that big of an effect. There have been doubles before, but I concede that is before the competition started peaking for one GT.
Well your opinion flies in the face of what every cyclist says about racing two consecutive GTs, especially Giro-Tour. Not to mention the empirical evidence of the last few years. Not a lot happened overall in 2010 - like I said, if Contador is content with just winning, and Schleck content with almost winning and finishing 2nd, it's hard to tell true gap between them.

ChrisE said:
Not sure what this has to do with the subject. In a normal year AC races one GT a year as well, except when he comes off the beach and wins the Giro then dominates the Vuelta.

Hmmmm, what year was that, and who was he riding for? :rolleyes:
It has a lot to do with the subject, if we only see them against each other once a year, it's very difficult to have a strong gauge on the distance between them.
 
May 18, 2009
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As for the Giro/Tour double, I noted above I concede now it is harder than before. I don't think AC riding the Giro this year was the reason he lost by as much as he did, and I will leave it at that. I am sure alot of people think I am crazy by not feeling it is completely devastating to somebody's performance 2months later. I am ok with that.

2009 = large hill.

2010 = completely flat, huge winds.

2011 = reasonable hill.
Are you saying on anything but a hilly course that AC and AS are equal TT's? I don't agree. If anything a hilly TT should make them more equal seeing as AS is a climber.

Well as a 22 year old I'd hope that Andy had plenty of room for natural growth. On the other hand, his unnatural side would have waned, just like it has for Contador, Evans, Basso etc. I don't buy into your argument that relative to the Schlecks, Contador's Clinical level has dropped.
It's funny, this forum is so divided it can't even agree on seemingly obvious facts. If you think the AC of 2007/2008/2009 is the same level as the AC of 2010 and 2011 then I don't know what to say to that, especially in reference to the Schecks.

I am sure there are some power numbers floating around (the Verbier numbers, for example), other than what our eyes tell us by watching the races (AC riding away either alone or with a doped up chicken, pre 2010).

Facts get reduced to opinions drawn upon ideological lines in here on certain subjects, I guess. Maybe if LA says something mean about AS then the opinion will sway. ;) A doped up AC with a current AAF riding for Saiz, Bruhneel, and Riis gets cut an awful lot of slack in here, I wonder why?

It has a lot to do with the subject, if we only see them against each other once a year, it's very difficult to have a strong gauge on the distance between them.
I don't think so. We see how they ride relative to eachother for those 3 weeks. I say they are closer now, you don't for reasons I am not sure I will ever understand. You seem to contradict yourself by saying everybody but Horner has dropped back, but then I am still not sure what you are saying about whether AS has gotten stronger. :confused:

Why did AC drop back? If you say because he is doping less then we are in agreement. If you say the delta between AC and AS is the same, ie they both dropped back, then we are not in agreement. Unless, they are both doping less and AS is closer to AC naturally than anybody thought.

Let's agree to disagree. Thanks for the discussion.
 
ChrisE said:
Are you saying on anything but a hilly course that AC and AS are equal TT's? I don't agree. If anything a hilly TT should make them more equal seeing as AS is a climber.
No, is that what you're saying? I'm saying let us compare apples and apples, i.e. 2009 and 2011, and consider 2010 as an outlier (for everyone, not just AC-AS), given the conditions.

ChrisE said:
It's funny, this forum is so divided it can't even agree on seemingly obvious facts. If you think the AC of 2007/2008/2009 is the same level as the AC of 2010 and 2011 then I don't know what to say to that, especially in reference to the Schecks.
Erm, where did I say that?

I'll repeat the bit you quoted seeing as you misunderstood:

Andy Schleck is younger than Contador, in 2007 you would have expected that he still had plenty of development left in him and probably only coming into his natural peak around now. In 2007 Contador was much closer to his natural peak thus we wouldn't expect him to still be improving now (plateauing instead).

On the clinic side of things it seems everyone has dropped off a bit in the late 00s, I don't know why we would exclude the Schlecks from this whilst being of the opinion that it holds for Contador, Evans, Basso, Leipheimer, Menchov, Vinokourov et al.


ChrisE said:
Facts get reduced to opinions drawn upon ideological lines in here on certain subjects, I guess. Maybe if LA says something mean about AS then the opinion will sway. ;) A doped up AC with a current AAF riding for Saiz, Bruhneel, and Riis gets cut an awful lot of slack in here, I wonder why?
So now you're accusing me of thinking AC is clean, because Lance doesn't like him?

ChrisE said:
I don't think so. We see how they ride relative to eachother for those 3 weeks. I say they are closer now, you don't for reasons I am not sure I will ever understand.
In 3 weeks which may only have 3 or 4 meaningful stages, and only 1 or 2 of those raced in a way which can give us any indication. You can get just as good a read from a decent week long race, if both show up for it. Perhaps wishful thinking on my behalf.

ChrisE said:
You seem to contradict yourself by saying everybody but Horner has dropped back, but then I am still not sure what you are saying about whether AS has gotten stronger. :confused:
In a doping context yes, Horner is obviously doping more significantly than ever before, for everyone else it seems like they may have eased up a bit (including the Schlecks - what this makes of Andy's overall level I'm not sure, which is why I suggested comparing 2007 Giro 2008 Tour to today's "numbers").

ChrisE said:
Why did AC drop back? If you say because he is doping less then we are in agreement. If you say the delta between AC and AS is the same, ie they both dropped back, then we are not in agreement. Unless, they are both doping less and AS is closer to AC naturally than anybody thought.

Let's agree to disagree. Thanks for the discussion.
How's this for you:

Doping
Andy decrease
Contador decrease

"Natural" Development
Andy increase
Contador steady

I don't see why Andy would be doping more under Andersen at Leopard than he was under Riis and Andersen at CSC/Saxo, or before his brother got found out making payments. Especially when the general trend seems to be a "cleaner" peloton.
 
May 18, 2009
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OK Ferminal. Like I say good discussion. We are probably to the point we are talking past eachother. But, I will comment on this:


How's this for you:

Doping
Andy decrease
Contador decrease

"Natural" Development
Andy increase
Contador steady

I don't see why Andy would be doping more under Andersen at Leopard than he was under Riis and Andersen at CSC/Saxo, or before his brother got found out making payments. Especially when the general trend seems to be a "cleaner" peloton.
I pretty much agree on this. I also think that AC's natural ability gets more respect than perhaps it deserves because of who he rode for earlier in his career, and the circumstances inre to doping prior to 2010, which I think we can all agree was a bellweather year in terms of things becoming cleaner. How good is a clean or cleaner AC? Maybe not any better than a relatively clean AS, borne out by the results of the past 2 years (how I interpret them), which is what started this whole discussion.
 
Ferminal said:
Have you actually watched these days you mention? The 2009 and 2010 TTs at the TdF are completely different in all aspects. You obviously didn't watch the Giro, where Contador was up on Millar before taking a more risk averse approach towards the finish (I assume you mean Milan, not Nevegal, which he did dominate. This year's Tour the distance between him and Andy in Grenoble was only 20" less than it was in Annecy. Not bad for someone coming off a ridiculous Giro and who completely blew up 24hours earlier.

Everyone's (apart from Horner...) "numbers" are down from their peak 3-5 years ago. Andy was very young when he broke out in the 2007 Giro, but I wouldn't be surprised if his "numbers" from then (or say, 2008 AdH) are that much lower than this year's Tour.

I can agree to an extent that Andy has closed the gap from 2009, but there isn't actually much to support this argument. 2010 Tour they were equals, if you only count Madeleine (and maybe Tourmalet). It's improbable that Andy will beat Contador in a GT over the next few years, and if Contador only wants to do "just enough" to win by a minute or so we may never see them go full on H2H - Andy would have to change his racing style.

The Tour route, and the fact that Andy only races one stage race a year makes it difficult to compare the two.
Just curious, but why do you believe Andy has improved at all since 2007? Isn't it more likely that he regressed a bit like the rest of them? I mean, his time up Zoncolan was about 2'13" faster than Contador's in 2011. Even when accounting for the circumstances that is a lot.
 
18-Valve. (pithy) said:
Just curious, but why do you believe Andy has improved at all since 2007? Isn't it more likely that he regressed a bit like the rest of them? I mean, his time up Zoncolan was about 2'13" faster than Contador's in 2011. Even when accounting for the circumstances that is a lot.
I'm not at all certain that he has improved his absolute level, but without looking at any data I thought that he may have improved, given how young he was (open to be proven wrong!). I think he's closed the gap on Contador a little.
 
ChrisE said:
Clown, I said I was watching it right at that moment on ESPN classic. AS attacked first? Well stop the presses and let me go get a refund on that lazer surgery I had a few years ago. That has nothing to do with anything except you identifying with a whiner and knee-jerk defending him.
I believe you are mistaking what you're viewing for a no-drop club ride and not a race. A rider attacks and his opponents respond--he loses his chain and they're supposed to slow their roll to allow the original aggressor to get his act together? Strange, strange alternate universe of competitive cycling that you live in.
 
Angliru said:
I believe you are mistaking what you're viewing for a no-drop club ride and not a race. A rider attacks and his opponents respond--he loses his chain and they're supposed to slow their roll to allow the original aggressive to get his act together. Strange, strange alternate universe of competitive cycling that you live in.
not even when im racing with my friends i would wait if they loose their chain, so i cant understand peoples anger against Contador for that insident, but i think this isn`t really the right thread for that disscusion :eek:
 
ChrisE said:
Clown, I said I was watching it right at that moment on ESPN classic. AS attacked first? Well stop the presses and let me go get a refund on that lazer surgery I had a few years ago. That has nothing to do with anything except you identifying with a whiner and knee-jerk defending him.
Can we all guess that you failed to watch the 2011 Tour where Andy whined that a race shouldn't be decided on a rainy descent, this inspired by his time loss due to his sketchy descending skills? There were multiple ex-pro's that voiced their concern for his mental ablity to even win a Tour after his latest whine-fest. So you are in fact indentifying with a whiner and either suffering from selective amnesia or just didn't watch any racing in the month of July in 2011.
 
May 18, 2009
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Angliru said:
Can we all guess that you failed to watch the 2011 Tour where Andy whined that a race shouldn't be decided on a rainy descent, this inspired by his time loss due to his sketchy descending skills? There were multiple ex-pro's that voiced their concern for his mental ablity to even win a Tour after his latest whine-fest. So you are in fact indentifying with a whiner and either suffering from selective amnesia or just didn't watch any racing in the month of July in 2011.
OK, you and your buds win. I will be sure to try to make up that 30 seconds of lost sleep over this.
 
so andy offers his $0,02. calling out (?) SKY was good, but i like especially this excercise in higher logic:

andy said:
“I laugh when I hear people say we can’t do it without taking [banned] products,” he continued. “All those who know cycling know that it’s quite possible. For me, the biological passport is the only way to control riders. Perhaps there should be more controls, not only for the best.”
ie from "c'mon, no one dopes" to "actually, test us a bit more, just to be sure" in a couple of sentences.

also frank is not mentioned in the interview at all. probably cos cycling has changed.
 
meat puppet said:
so andy offers his $0,02. calling out (?) SKY was good, but i like especially this excercise in higher logic:

ie from "c'mon, no one dopes" to "actually, test us a bit more, just to be sure" in a couple of sentences.

also frank is not mentioned in the interview at all. probably cos cycling has changed.
These guys have a very hard time keeping their stories straight, even in the same interview.
 
Jun 18, 2009
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“It’s their decision, but a guy like Bobby Julich, who admitted to using EPO but changed his attitude afterwards, should not be disowned. I know him for a long time. At Saxo Bank, he helped me a lot and he was one of the cleanest on the team. "

Pure gold Andy. He should put a stamp on everyone, beginning with Riis.
 
Jan 11, 2010
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McLovin said:
“It’s their decision, but a guy like Bobby Julich, who admitted to using EPO but changed his attitude afterwards, should not be disowned. I know him for a long time. At Saxo Bank, he helped me a lot and he was one of the cleanest on the team. "

Pure gold Andy. He should put a stamp on everyone, beginning with Riis.
He's not that stupid as to use those words. Probably lost in translation somewhere.
 

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