The Tour Wild Cards

[Publicus]

I would think Radio Shack is sitting pretty well in terms of results.

I could be wrong... but I really don't see why the ASO would care how well a team does in a race like Omloop het Whatever or KBK. Those are great races... but showing well in them doesn't really mean you'll be able to do anything at all in a race like the Tour.

I'd think any stage race with any kind of climb in it would factor in much more, even if it's a lower prestige level.

RS got 3rd and 4th in Algarve and 2nd and 4th in Sardegna. With Contador and Kreuziger winning those races, it does show they favored tour GC guys to some degree.

Now that won't mean nearly as much once some bigger stage races come around... but so far RS has some high places in the stage races they've entered (that aren't sprint oriented).

Sprint races like the TDU, Qatar and Oman and great one-day performances like the Omloop and KBK are great... but do they influence TDF selection much?

Way too much analysis. Radio Shack is in simply because it makes dollars. Without Armstrong they don't get a license. With him, they get into every race they desire (save T-A, which they really should have seen coming after they snubbed the Giro--26 riders and you can't field a team???).

That being said, they aren't going to animate the Tour de France--see Algarve and Sardenga. They won't be in any breaks. They don't have attacking riders. They just want to do well and maintain contact with the big moves, if possible, and hope that someone falters. Vacansoleil may not have a GC candidate, but I'd be willing to bet they do more to animate the race than Radio Shack.

 

[craig1985]

Way too much analysis. Radio Shack is in simply because it makes dollars. Without Armstrong they don't get a license. With him, they get into every race they desire (save T-A, which they really should have seen coming after they snubbed the Giro--26 riders and you can't field a team???).

That being said, they aren't going to animate the Tour de France--see Algarve and Sardenga. They won't be in any breaks. They don't have attacking riders. They just want to do well and maintain contact with the big moves, if possible, and hope that someone falters. Vacansoleil may not have a GC candidate, but I'd be willing to bet they do more to animate the race than Radio Shack.

Yeah, if there is a mountain stage going, Hoogerland will be in it. DO people see Lampre miss out? I do, they care more about the Giro, with a train for Petacchi and the chance for stage wins for Cunego.

 

[Sasquatch]

why do you put Hendo in that class? I like Hendo, but he is but a peripheral player in cycling, never rode the Tour, never had a big win, if you do not consider a field sprint in Spain and Philly. I like him, and glad to see him get his chance this year, but be realistic.

You are forgetting guys like Burghardt and Sastre, Zabriskie. Hendo is not in their class. He is just a sprinter.

Vaconsoleil have the brothers Feillu. Older took a mtn finish last year, and younger held the yellow the previous year. Roman has quite the personal narrative to boot. And the French if nothing else, love a good story. I dont know how dialled Huelot is into the establishment of French cycling and the ASO. But if he is on good terms, they will be there.

The ASO will be quick to forget that they promised Skil a return this year however.

And dont be stupid talking about Shack's lack of results. They do not have to get any results. Dont be silly. It is like the US Masters, every former winner is invited back, unless your name is Flandis. A team with StrongArm, Hilde, Leepy, those are some apples. Strongest team, top to bottom, for a GC run in the peloton. Plus armed with Bruyneels medical program.

I just plucked out the names that came to mind first.

 

[Moondance]

Yeah, if there is a mountain stage going, Hoogerland will be in it. DO people see Lampre miss out? I do, they care more about the Giro, with a train for Petacchi and the chance for stage wins for Cunego.

Lampre are guaranteed a spot under the 2008 agreement, all teams that were ProTour at the time got that, including Footon (or whatever it was called back then). Team like Garmin, Sky, Shack, Katusha, who are ProTour now, but were not when the agreement was signed don't have any guarantees.

 

[craig1985]

Whilst I would love to see 8 riders per team, I think a race like the Vuelta should try it out and see what the racing is like as a result.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Vacansoleil one of the ASO's main Paris-Nice sponsors, while BMC don't ride.
Doesn't anyone think this is significant?

From Francois t Post's link:

L'Equipe estimates the chances of ProTeam Katusha at 95%:

20. Katusha

That's already 20 teams (180 riders), the number invited to the 2009 Tour de France. But Tour director Christian Prudhomme, quoted in L'Equipe, seems prepared to invite the maximum of 22 teams (198 riders if they stick with 9 riders per team). In that scenario, what other two teams might the Tour invite in 2010?

L'Equipe estimates the chances of Continental Pro team Cervelo at 80%:

21. Cervelo

L'Equipe considers Continental Pro teams Vacansoleil and Saur-Sojasun to each have a 40% chance of being invited. They put Skil-Shimano at 15%.

Notice who are not even considered?
I still say there will be a shock or two, when the time comes.

 

[auscyclefan94]

^^ I hear ya, Rabo had a pretty meh season last year I thought.
They do have a very strong team though, almost every rider on the list is capable of doing something if the selection is right. Flens being a prime example.

comparing sky and bmc is a joke. Sky have had a good season thus far (BMC.. not), and have a much stronger team on a whole. And the UCI points thing means nothing... they've got points from what, 1 race... the TDU?

I really hope Vacansoleil get a spot, they are a team who ride with a whole lot of heart, and they actually have quite an impressive list of riders.
Great season thus far too.

as previously stated the best thing that can happen to BMC is not getting a wild card anyway, Evans wont win the tour.. even more so if he plans to contest at the giro. He is probably capable of doing the Vuelta/Giro double... though I don't see it happening.

You want Vacansoleil in because they are Dutch and bMC out because of Evans... pretty easy summation of your post! BMC haven't had the best of starts but they do have a pretty strong allround team especially in comparison to some other teams (Radioshack). Evans may not win the tour but neither will Rabobank or Garmin or Radioshack so why invite them? That's a very stupid arguement!

Oh yeah, of course they do. they aren't much different to any other team.

I'll try not to bite back at your crap anymore!

 

[theyoungest]

BMC haven't had the best of starts but they do have a pretty strong allround team especially in comparison to some other teams (Radioshack).

RadioShack is a stronger allround team than BMC. Maybe slightly weaker in the classics (although Rosseler has made a big leap this winter, and I'm sure he's not the only one) but a lot stronger in stage races.

 

[auscyclefan94]

RadioShack is a stronger allround team than BMC. Maybe slightly weaker in the classics (although Rosseler has made a big leap this winter, and I'm sure he's not the only one) but a lot stronger in stage races.

Their team is just for stage races. Their classics team is uncomparable to BMC. Anyway, for stage races, they only care about ToC and TdF, stuff great races like the Giro or Tirreno!

 

[Moondance]

You want Vacansoleil in because they are Dutch and bMC out because of Evans... pretty easy summation of your post! BMC haven't had the best of starts but they do have a pretty strong allround team especially in comparison to some other teams (Radioshack). Evans may not win the tour but neither will Rabobank or Garmin or Radioshack so why invite them? That's a very stupid arguement!

Oh yeah, of course they do. they aren't much different to any other team.

I'll try not to bite back at your crap anymore!

I think it'll be very much a question of what the Tour organizers want for that last 22nd (assuming the 16 agreement team get in, plus Sky, Garmin, Shack, Katusha and Cervelo).

BMC offers the biggest names, and the rainbow jersey. But I do think that there is a legimate question how strong they can be. The Giro finishes 34 days before the Tour starts, and if BMC is going to go all out to win the Giro and a few stages, I think that seriously impacts how strong they can be during the Tour. If BMC were to skip the Giro and focus all their big guns solely on owning the Tour, then I would have to say that BMC would be almost impossible reject. But that doesn't appear to be happening.

Saur offers 9 Frenchmen, pure and simple, and will be considered even though they don't have a GC man or any bona-fide stage winners.

Vacansoleil offers the most attractive racing. Vacansoleil have been the delight of every TV audience who has watched cycling the past year, and I think there is at least a decent shot of them getting in. Also they've been seriously investing in their attempt to get the Tour spot. They've ridden every race in France so far this season, that must surely count for something. BMC have only ridden one I think.

 

[Galic Ho]

You want Vacansoleil in because they are Dutch and bMC out because of Evans... pretty easy summation of your post! BMC haven't had the best of starts but they do have a pretty strong allround team especially in comparison to some other teams (Radioshack). Evans may not win the tour but neither will Rabobank or Garmin or Radioshack so why invite them? That's a very stupid arguement!

Oh yeah, of course they do. they aren't much different to any other team.

I'll try not to bite back at your crap anymore!

Stupid argument and foolish to compare those teams with BMC. Rabobank will field Menchov and Gesink, who together are more value than Evans. Plus they have the 2008 Maillot Vert winner, Freire riding in his last season. Oh and he won 3 world championships. BMC have the current World Champion and that is it. Last year we covered the intentions of Hincapie and Ballan. Neither wish to ride in France. So who has a silly line of thinking now? Radioshack...yes on form they are crap but we all know they will put 3 riders in the top 20. Armstrong under the current ASO leadership is welcome. Patrice Clerc is not there anymore...Radioshack will get an invite.

Dude you want BMC in because they have Evans who we all know is an aussie and also your avatar pic. The nationality argument is futile and juvenile, by both sides. Who cares, because when it come down to it someone looses out and nationality and your interests will not be a factor.

As for all Pro Tour teams turning up....rubbish. Footon Cervetto outlived their welcome years back. Skil were given a solid guarantee they will get a spot. Lampre may choose not to show and instead focus on the Giro and Vuelta. Sky? Come on, money talks and teams walk, they are in.

Guaranteed: Saxo, Rabo, Astana, Caisse, Liquigas, Euskatel, HTC, Omega Pharma Lotto (OPL), Quickstep, Milram, Francaise des Jeux, Katusha, Garmin, AG2R and Lampre. Why? they were all there last year and more importantly, they are pro tour teams. There is no reason not to take them. None have been naughty, or worse, naughty and caught.

Obvious additions: Retirement Shack and Sky. Current numbers with these two additions, makes 17 teams. 18 if you don't think like I do and believe all the pro Tour teams will be invited.

Teams promised a spot by the ASO: Cofidis, Cervelo, BBox and Skil. Add those and you get 21. I think they will get them, but to be fair, the ASO will utilise the 22 positions and give the spare one to BMC. Sorry but Aqua Saponne and Vancansoleil miss out. Why did I suggest the above 5 get wildcards? Because they were given wild cards last year or were demoted from Pro Tour status and animated the race last year. BMC round the number out to 22 and have a recent podium placer at the Tour who will be wearing the World Champions jersey. Plus they are well connected as explained by other posters.

Personally I think Shack and Sky should be told to do the hard yards and earn their PT license, but we are past that.

 

[theyoungest]

Their team is just for stage races. Their classics team is uncomparable to BMC. Anyway, for stage races, they only care about ToC and TdF, stuff great races like the Giro or Tirreno!

What I'm trying to say is, don't overestimate BMC's classics team.
Hincapie: as much as I'd love for him to win Paris-Roubaix, he won't do it.
Ballan: how the hell is he going to beat Boonen in the Ronde or Roubaix?
Kroon: the perennial "had great legs, didn't go with the right move"-rider.

And in stage races, as I said, the Shack is just immeasurably stronger. It's Evans vs. Leipheimer-Armstrong-Klöden-Brajkovic-etc. etc.

But in terms of Tour wild cards, we all know that both The Shack and BMC will be in. So why bother

 

[craig1985]

If Footon were part of the agreement to secure them a spot at the Tour de France, would that amount to a promise/contract that they have to be selected? I'm sure that is what they will argue in court when/if they get denied a spot at the Tour. I'm no lawyer though.

 

[Ferminal]

So what's the actual date that the teams get announced?

We've been talking about this for months and it usually ends up at the same conclusion.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

You want Vacansoleil in because they are Dutch and bMC out because of Evans... pretty easy summation of your post! BMC haven't had the best of starts but they do have a pretty strong allround team especially in comparison to some other teams (Radioshack). Evans may not win the tour but neither will Rabobank or Garmin or Radioshack so why invite them? That's a very stupid arguement!

I'll try not to bite back at your crap anymore!

you ignorant fool, my argument was in favor of evans. I would prefer Gesink to ride a giro/vuelta double too (he wont beat AC and doing those races could bring a podium if not a win)... But that wont happen!! The best thing that could happen to evans is him not going to france and actually possibly winning the giro and vuelta, he is capable of that.
And Rabo, Garmin etc are at a different level then BMC. If BMC ride the giro, and then the tour then there team is gonna be stretched pretty thin and perform poorly at the tour anyway, unfortunately BMC don't have the depth other teams have. Riding the giro with a good squad, then resting up a bit before hitting the vuelta seems far more reasonable then pushing a team and the key riders to their limits. I don't like evans but my thinking of BMC not getting a wildcard isn't based on hatred.

And yes I want vasc. there, they are entertaining and I think they are a great team. Plus they are performing admirably, how dare I suggest they get a wildcard Skil are also dutch, personally I think it's a joke they are even in the running for a wild card.

My "crap" was reasonable, stop being immature and allow another opinion bud. Grow up.

Personally I think Shack and Sky should be told to do the hard yards and earn their PT license, but we are past that.

I agree with this. It still annoys me.

 

[TRDean]

you ignorant fool, my argument was in favor of evans. I would prefer Gesink to ride a giro/vuelta double too (he wont beat AC and doing those races could bring a podium if not a win)... But that wont happen!! The best thing that could happen to evans is him not going to france and actually possibly winning the giro and vuelta, he is capable of that.
And Rabo, Garmin etc are at a different level then BMC. If BMC ride the giro, and then the tour then there team is gonna be stretched pretty thin and perform poorly at the tour anyway, unfortunately BMC don't have the depth other teams have. Riding the giro with a good squad, then resting up a bit before hitting the vuelta seems far more reasonable then pushing a team and the key riders to their limits. I don't like evans but my thinking of BMC not getting a wildcard isn't based on hatred.

And yes I want vasc. there, they are entertaining and I think they are a great team. Plus they are performing admirably, how dare I suggest they get a wildcard Skil are also dutch, personally I think it's a joke they are even in the running for a wild card.
My "crap" was reasonable, stop being immature and allow another opinion bud. Grow up.



I agree with this. It still annoys me.

Why say that? Very good early season so far...ASO has always stated that they like Skil...the team organization...everything...let the season develop and see what happens..you may be surprised Timmy.

 

[Mellow Velo]

So, assuming BMC get a Tour invite, who would be in their team?
Who would ride the Giro and the classics?
Who will have the legs left to make their respective WC teams?

Like Timmy says, that's spreading their jam mighty thin.

 

[Boeing]

wow is there really any chance that Garmin or Sky could be left out cold?

 

[Moondance]

Why say that? Very good early season so far...ASO has always stated that they like Skil...the team organization...everything...let the season develop and see what happens..you may be surprised Timmy.

Really? They've won nothing.

Also they've lost some of their French contingent compared to last year. I'd be shocked if Skil get an invite, regardless of what 'promises' they were given last year.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Also they've lost some of their French contingent compared to last year. .

They've gained Geniez, who is pretty good.

Agree with the rest.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Stupid argument and foolish to compare those teams with BMC. Rabobank will field Menchov and Gesink, who together are more value than Evans. Plus they have the 2008 Maillot Vert winner, Freire riding in his last season. Oh and he won 3 world championships. BMC have the current World Champion and that is it. Last year we covered the intentions of Hincapie and Ballan. Neither wish to ride in France. So who has a silly line of thinking now? Radioshack...yes on form they are crap but we all know they will put 3 riders in the top 20. Armstrong under the current ASO leadership is welcome. Patrice Clerc is not there anymore...Radioshack will get an invite.

Dude you want BMC in because they have Evans who we all know is an aussie and also your avatar pic. The nationality argument is futile and juvenile, by both sides. Who cares, because when it come down to it someone looses out and nationality and your interests will not be a factor.

Teams promised a spot by the ASO: Cofidis, Cervelo, BBox and Skil. Add those and you get 21. I think they will get them, but to be fair, the ASO will utilise the 22 positions and give the spare one to BMC. Sorry but Aqua Saponne and Vancansoleil miss out. Why did I suggest the above 5 get wildcards? Because they were given wild cards last year or were demoted from Pro Tour status and animated the race last year. BMC round the number out to 22 and have a recent podium placer at the Tour who will be wearing the World Champions jersey. Plus they are well connected as explained by other posters.

Personally I think Shack and Sky should be told to do the hard yards and earn their PT license, but we are past that.

Will Freire win green or Menchov/Gesink win yellow? That was Timmy's arguement. nobody should turn up to this tour because only Contador and Schelck can really win it. it is an idiotic comment to make that statemnet as well.

What I'm trying to say is, don't overestimate BMC's classics team.
Hincapie: as much as I'd love for him to win Paris-Roubaix, he won't do it.
Ballan: how the hell is he going to beat Boonen in the Ronde or Roubaix?
Kroon: the perennial "had great legs, didn't go with the right move"-rider.

But in terms of Tour wild cards, we all know that both The Shack and BMC will be in. So why bother

I think that is looking at the BMC team with a glass half empty attitude. Don't forget Burghardt

you ignorant fool, my argument was in favor of evans. I would prefer Gesink to ride a giro/vuelta double too (he wont beat AC and doing those races could bring a podium if not a win)... But that wont happen!! The best thing that could happen to evans is him not going to france and actually possibly winning the giro and vuelta, he is capable of that.
And Rabo, Garmin etc are at a different level then BMC. If BMC ride the giro, and then the tour then there team is gonna be stretched pretty thin and perform poorly at the tour anyway, unfortunately BMC don't have the depth other teams have. Riding the giro with a good squad, then resting up a bit before hitting the vuelta seems far more reasonable then pushing a team and the key riders to their limits. I don't like evans but my thinking of BMC not getting a wildcard isn't based on hatred.

And yes I want vasc. there, they are entertaining and I think they are a great team. Plus they are performing admirably, how dare I suggest they get a wildcard Skil are also dutch, personally I think it's a joke they are even in the running for a wild card.

My "crap" was reasonable, stop being immature and allow another opinion bud. Grow up.

Sorry my original post was a little over the top

Evans is not going to have much support in the giro as they are sending a very strong squad to California. If we say that to all riders that they should do the giro or vuelta double then you will only really have Andy, lance and Contador going for the title. Your arguement was not really in faovur of evans as you didn't want him riding the tour but i see where you are coming from.

 

[ak-zaaf]

...

Part of the thing is that Vacansoleil has gone out of their way to get wildcards since they hit the scene. Last year they attacked everywhere, sponsored the tirreno in hopes of a giro invite and when that didn't come, they kept doing what they did: attack and win races where they could. In the Vuelta they filled our screen everyday, mountains, sprints and breakaway. Even in Lombardy they still had a guy in the breakaway and a top-5.
This year they just keep doing what they did. Mol in Qatar, Bozic in Bessege, Traksel in Kuurne... Plus a sponsorship of Paris-Nice.

It's a little biased, but his team gives spectators what they want.

BMC still has all to prove and they haven't actually show anything yet altough that probably will change the coming weeks/monyhs.
Evans would probably be solid if invited, but what would that add to the tour? His domestiques will probably be kept close to him and most of the big names on BMC will be a little worn out by that time.
Vacansoleil has proved to be willing and able to go at it everyday and bring serious contenders for sprints, breakaways and mountain stages. Also the start in Rotjeknor is in favor of them.

So, yes I am biased towards the Dutch team and no I don't care for Evans, but when it comes to it I just think Vacansoleil would add a lot more to the tour for us viewers to enjoy.

 

[Anonymous]

I think Vacansoleil have done everything in the last 15 months to be deserving of whatever wild cards are going, and i think race organisers should be banging on their door to get them to there races.

Theres barely been a race theyve been in where they havnt been involved in some way or another.

 

[stefrees]

Part of the thing is that Vacansoleil has gone out of their way to get wildcards since they hit the scene. Last year they attacked everywhere, sponsored the tirreno in hopes of a giro invite and when that didn't come, they kept doing what they did: attack and win races where they could. In the Vuelta they filled our screen everyday, mountains, sprints and breakaway. Even in Lombardy they still had a guy in the breakaway and a top-5.
This year they just keep doing what they did. Mol in Qatar, Bozic in Bessege, Traksel in Kuurne... Plus a sponsorship of Paris-Nice.

It's a little biased, but his team gives spectators what they want.

BMC still has all to prove and they haven't actually show anything yet altough that probably will change the coming weeks/monyhs.
Evans would probably be solid if invited, but what would that add to the tour? His domestiques will probably be kept close to him and most of the big names on BMC will be a little worn out by that time.
Vacansoleil has proved to be willing and able to go at it everyday and bring serious contenders for sprints, breakaways and mountain stages. Also the start in Rotjeknor is in favor of them.

So, yes I am biased towards the Dutch team and no I don't care for Evans, but when it comes to it I just think Vacansoleil would add a lot more to the tour for us viewers to enjoy.

while i agree with your point, and id like to see vaconsoleil in the tour, i dont think they'll bring a serious contender in either the sprints or the mountains. attacking wise though theyll be up there

 

[theyoungest]

while i agree with your point, and id like to see vaconsoleil in the tour, i dont think they'll bring a serious contender in either the sprints or the mountains. attacking wise though theyll be up there

I'd say Bozic has shown to be a serious contender in the sprints (apart from Cav, he can beat all of them) and while they don't have a GC threat (should they?) they do have a fair amount of climbing talent in their team.