The Tour Wild Cards

[karlboss]

Seeing as we seem to be focussing only on vacansoleil and BMC I agree vasc are doing everything right and have been for some time, but they lack that one drawcard name. If it comes down to BMC and vasc its a big ask to drop the guy with 2 2nd places and a world championship jersey on his shoulders.
Honestly which team should be in I think comes right down to Evans. If the ASO thinks Evans can be a factor, choose BMC. I'm biased (being aussie) but I thought evans animated the race last year (at least for a short time), if only for the drama of a contender trying to get in a breakaway. Lets face it a breakaway with a top ten finisher is more interesting than just the battle for the stage win. i think this course suits evans, and there are 2 stages set up for contenders to make a break before the final climb if they are feeling suicidal.

Long story short...every year, interested teams should enter with a proposed team and then the ASO should invite by merit on the teams and individual performances during the year.

 

[Mambo95]

BMC of course are run by a man (John Lelangue) who worked for ASO for ten years.

The guarantee to the 16 teams expires after 2010 and there are a few teams there that the ASO would not invite given the choice (Footon, Milram). I can see a compromise whereby Vacansoliel are denied entry this year, but given entry to every other ASO race (including the Vuelta) and a guaranteed spot for 2011 and maybe 2012.

 

[Boeing]

Seeing as we seem to be focussing only on vacansoleil and BMC I agree vasc are doing everything right and have been for some time, but they lack that one drawcard name. If it comes down to BMC and vasc its a big ask to drop the guy with 2 2nd places and a world championship jersey on his shoulders.
Honestly which team should be in I think comes right down to Evans. If the ASO thinks Evans can be a factor, choose BMC. I'm biased (being aussie) but I thought evans animated the race last year (at least for a short time), if only for the drama of a contender trying to get in a breakaway. Lets face it a breakaway with a top ten finisher is more interesting than just the battle for the stage win. i think this course suits evans, and there are 2 stages set up for contenders to make a break before the final climb if they are feeling suicidal.

Long story short...every year, interested teams should enter with a proposed team and then the ASO should invite by merit on the teams and individual performances during the year.

on that logic and it is logical BTW....Contador sits out Le Tour this year?

 

[Francois the Postman]

The guarantee to the 16 teams expires after 2010 and there are a few teams there that the ASO would not invite given the choice (Footon, Milram). I can see a compromise whereby Vacansoliel are denied entry this year, but given entry to every other ASO race (including the Vuelta) and a guaranteed spot for 2011 and maybe 2012.

They still might not have the choice after the current arrangement expires. Under the upcoming formula, top 17 ranked teams get automatic invitations to the Tour, no matter what status they have (Pro, Continental, etc).

Right now, with current 2010 standings, both teams you list would still be in

And we will see this year how much ASO promises are actually worth. If I was Skil's bank, I wouldn't be keen to convert last years (apparent) promise to silver just yet.

It might well be that the 2011 system would put even more pressure on the wild cards allocation, as it is technically one wild card less they have control over, and it's no guarantee that the best 17 UCI ranked teams will contain the teams that ASO actually wants.

This discussion could well have been even more intense if that system had been in place already, if we took the final 2009 list.

FINAL 2009 Team Rankings:

1 ASTANA KAZ 1100
2 CAISSE D'EPARGNE ESP 1048
3 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC USA 957
4 TEAM SAXO BANK DEN 946
5 LIQUIGAS ITA 923
6 SILENCE-LOTTO BEL 821
7 CERVELO TEST TEAM SUI 804
8 QUICK STEP BEL 760
9 RABOBANK NED 707
10 TEAM KATUSHA RUS 637
11 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM USA 632
12 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI ESP 631
13 LAMPRE - N.G.C ITA 465
14 SERRAMENTI PVC DIQUIGIOVANNI-ANDRONI GIOCATTOLI VEN 379
15 ACQUA & SAPONE - CAFFE MOKAMBO ITA 249
16 FRANÇAISE DES JEUX FRA 238
17 AG2R LA MONDIALE FRA 206
===========

Not making the cut (I assume that any team from the above list that seized to exit or opted not to race would simply add another wild card, rather than have its automatic-entry status transferred to the next team on the list - I might stand to be corrected on that as I have no idea if this is indeed the case) :

============

18 TEAM MILRAM GER 182
19 BBOX BOUYGUES TELECOM FRA 170
20 COFIDIS, LE CREDIT EN LIGNE FRA 166
21 VACANSOLEIL PRO CYCLING TEAM NED 158
22 XACOBEO GALICIA ESP 128
23 FUJI-SERVETTO ESP 114
24 LPR BRAKES FARNESE VINI IRL 102
25 AGRITUBEL FRA 34
26 SKIL-SHIMANO NED 33
27 CERAMICA FLAMINIA - BOSSINI DOCCE IRL 26
28 CONTENTPOLIS-AMPO ESP 24
29 ANDALUCIA CAJASUR ESP 21
30 BARLOWORLD GBR 20
31 TOPSPORT VLAANDEREN - MERCATOR BEL 11
32 LANDBOUWKREDIET - COLNAGO BEL 4
33 BMC RACING TEAM USA 4
34 ISD - NERI ITA 3
+ NEW TEAMS
Sky
Radioshack

That wouldn't exactly have made the discussion LESS complicated, would it? Especially from ASO's French point of view.

Given he above, and that the 2 French teams that made it would only have made it just, it might well be that most of the wild cards would be needed to keep the French in. (and in the alternative reality that had the above list setting the 2010 entries: bye bye BMC I think).

That newly emerged Sky and Radioshack are complicating factors this year doesn't mean that that won't be an issue again next year. Because if (if) we get to see a new Spanish team with Contador at the helm next year, that would arguably only leave 4 wild cards! (If the total amount of spaces to allocate remained at the expected 22 teams level).

 

[Ferminal]

.

Do we expect every team to be around this time next year?

There is enough uncertainty surrounding many of those top25 to guess that a few will not make it into 2011.

 

[Francois the Postman]

I don't, but my response was triggered by the quoted post (above) that insinuated that we wouldn't have the same Wild Card problems next year, when this arrangement comes to an end. I can think of various scenarios that would actually increase the problems, and used the 2009 list to illustrate that.

Especially this bit might be totally meaningless if the French fail to make the cut-off. I can't see that being attractive proposal, both from Vanasoleil's and ASO's pov.

"I can see a compromise whereby Vacansoliel (sic) are denied entry this year, but given entry to every other ASO race (including the Vuelta) and a guaranteed spot for 2011 and maybe 2012."

What I expect is that ASO is a bit worried about the actual attractiveness of their big 2010 expirement: cobbles. Last year's radio-ban experiment were a publicity and spectacle disaster with the teams nullifying the attempted attraction. Skil got huge kudos points by racing on that stage.

I think ASO knows that GT contender teams will want to take it easy on 'em. It might be a thin on the ground for teams that want to race there. If they want to inject some guarantanteed spice to that race if you were a bit nervous about its success, in a week that is usually not the most attractive anyway, who would you insert: Vacansoleil or BMC?

I still think it is BMC's to lose and a team like Vacansoleil to win. But, in a shoot out between the two, so far, Vacansoleil is making the most solid case that they can make. BMC isn't. It hasn't add much in 2010 to the only case it makes, that it has Evans. Who will also really go for the Giro. If it is persuasive enough, and ASO will risk giving a wild card to a team whose main argument might well make as much impact as Menchov or Sastre did, and certainly not risk anything until we reach the mountains, time will tell.

I haven't ruled Vacansoleil out from trumping BMC, if it comes to that, yet. I have written off Skil.

 

[Galic Ho]

The counter arguement: you could just have another boring breakaway team like cofidis or BBox or Milram or Ag2r then chuck in possibly vacansoleil. It gets a bit the same as well. Having a world champion at the head of the race seems a more exciting prospect even if he's only contending for 3rd. Like I said, probabaly in the 2ng group of favs behind the first which is AC and AS.

Boring breakaway! You labelled some of those teams in a rather harsh manner. The breakaways were more interesting than a HTC leadout to animate the last 5 minutes of a stage and everyone being dictated to by Astana and Saxo. Breakaways made the Tour bearable. BMC, well we all know they won't put down anything in that department because his royal heirness, prince of Aussie cyclists will need, neigh, demand everyone help him, cause you know, that is why he joined BMC. My money is on BMC getting a ride, but they shouldn't based upon entertainment value. They will be dull. Very dull. Sounds like Evans doesn't it?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Seeing as we seem to be focussing only on vacansoleil and BMC I agree vasc are doing everything right and have been for some time, but they lack that one drawcard name. If it comes down to BMC and vasc its a big ask to drop the guy with 2 2nd places and a world championship jersey on his shoulders.
Honestly which team should be in I think comes right down to Evans. If the ASO thinks Evans can be a factor, choose BMC. I'm biased (being aussie) but I thought evans animated the race last year (at least for a short time), if only for the drama of a contender trying to get in a breakaway. Lets face it a breakaway with a top ten finisher is more interesting than just the battle for the stage win. i think this course suits evans, and there are 2 stages set up for contenders to make a break before the final climb if they are feeling suicidal.

Long story short...every year, interested teams should enter with a proposed team and then the ASO should invite by merit on the teams and individual performances during the year.

Spot on Karlboss. At the moment Vacansoleil have won more this season and on victories and results they deserve to be in there.
1st, Stages 1 Étoile de Bessèges: Borut Božič
1st, Stages 2 Étoile de Bessèges: Borut Božič
1st, Overall Tour of Qatar: Wouter Mol
1st, Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne: Bobbie Traksel

I agree that BMC really need to step it up starting at Monte paschi Eroica.

Boring breakaway! You labelled some of those teams in a rather harsh manner. The breakaways were more interesting than a HTC leadout to animate the last 5 minutes of a stage and everyone being dictated to by Astana and Saxo. Breakaways made the Tour bearable. BMC, well we all know they won't put down anything in that department because his royal heirness, prince of Aussie cyclists will need, neigh, demand everyone help him, cause you know, that is why he joined BMC. My money is on BMC getting a ride, but they shouldn't based upon entertainment value. They will be dull. Very dull. Sounds like Evans doesn't it?

Yes but HTC had a main goal for a jersey and stage wins. Vacansolleil don't have a big sprinter or GC guy who can go for at least a podium. BMC does with evans. BMC's aim will be ultimately to get evans in yellow at paris. He demand's everyone help...? i think every team leader who needs/tries to win the tour or a race demands and needs help. Stupid argeument.

 

[auscyclefan94]

how interesting a race without breakaways, personally I love the prospect of watching the peleton ride at a leisurely pace finally going hard in the last 10 kms. That's entertainment!!

yes, but do we need another team being apart of a breakaways?

For me this is the main issue.

This team wants to do well in the classics, ride the giro(and surely they have to send a decent sqaud, otherwise it's just showing disrespect towards the giro)/or travel to america and do a good show at the ToC then regorup and perform at the tour.
The team isn't exactly on the young side either, this is a lot to ask.
And most importantly Evans, he wants to do well or win the giro... It's too much to ask for him to do that then a few weeks later be ready to perform at the tour. Look at menchov and sastre last year. The team will be a dissapointment at the tour imo.

Give Vasc. a chance who IMO are doing everything right in tems of achievinga wildcard, and yes they might be a team who animate races, but they also get results in. This season they are flying already.

At the giro, they are sending ballan and evans and a realtively young squad. they are sending a stronger squad support based to califronia to help george win there.

The giro squad is suppose to be quite similar the squad they are sending to Monte Paschi Eroica. They are doing some recon with that team around that week.
Alessandro Ballan (ITA), Brent Bookwalter (USA), Cadel Evans (AUS), Thomas Frei (SUI), Jeff Louder (USA), Steve Morabito (SUI), Michael Schär (SUI).

 

[karlboss]

on that logic and it is logical BTW....Contador sits out Le Tour this year?

Why would contador sit out?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

yes, but do we need another team being apart of a breakaways?

Number of teams projected to have contenders for GC and therefore not likely to contribute to breakaways until their GC contender is out of the running:

Astana
Saxo
Liquigas
Radioshack
Sky
Euskaltel (except Txurruka, of course)
Rabobank
Garmin
Caisse d'Epargne

Number of teams projected to be interested in sprint finishes and therefore not likely to contribute much to breakaways:

Columbia
Garmin
Quick Step
Cervélo
Sky
Lampre
Katyusha

Number of teams projected to be there mostly to animate the race:

Ag2r
Bbox
Cofidis
Footon
Milram


So, we have more teams just sitting in the péloton keeping their GC rider safe than we have trying to keep things interesting. For a team like Vacansoleil a win in a Tour stage is a year's highlight and worth so much to them. Bbox were going to pull sponsorship, but then the two stage wins in the Tour made them change their minds.

Your argument is predicated entirely on your desire to see Evans racing in the Tour, but if he's riding the Ardennes and going all out for the Giro, and you still expect him to compete for a podium in the Tour, then I fear that your devotion to Australia's world champ is blinkering you to common sense regards fatigue. Besides, by the time July comes around Evans may have fallen victim to the rainbow jersey curse, and then with Ballan and Hincapie saying they don't want to ride in France, what on earth would BMC offer? They'd just be another breakaway team, but with fewer recognisable names than Vacansoleil.

Putting in more GC-minded teams with only one target isn't going to make the racing very exciting. Putting in another team who will attack and try and make their season will - especially if someone like Hoogerland is performing to the same ability he did in the Vuelta, whereupon he'll suddenly become rather too dangerous to let attack.

Ultimately, if BMC were already in the race and it came down to another team which will crystallise around a GC contender - say for the sake of an argument Sky, only Boasson Hagen and Lövkvist have ruled themselves out from riding - would you still favour them entering the race ahead of Vacansoleil? Or is it because it's Cadel Evans that could lose out that makes you blind to the positives of attacking teams?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Number of teams projected to have contenders for GC and therefore not likely to contribute to breakaways until their GC contender is out of the running:

Astana
Saxo
Liquigas
Radioshack
Sky
Euskaltel (except Txurruka, of course)
Rabobank
Garmin
Caisse d'Epargne

Number of teams projected to be interested in sprint finishes and therefore not likely to contribute much to breakaways:

Columbia
Garmin
Quick Step
Cervélo
Sky
Lampre
Katyusha

Number of teams projected to be there mostly to animate the race:

Ag2r
Bbox
Cofidis
Footon
Milram


So, we have more teams just sitting in the péloton keeping their GC rider safe than we have trying to keep things interesting. For a team like Vacansoleil a win in a Tour stage is a year's highlight and worth so much to them. Bbox were going to pull sponsorship, but then the two stage wins in the Tour made them change their minds.

Your argument is predicated entirely on your desire to see Evans racing in the Tour, but if he's riding the Ardennes and going all out for the Giro, and you still expect him to compete for a podium in the Tour, then I fear that your devotion to Australia's world champ is blinkering you to common sense regards fatigue. Besides, by the time July comes around Evans may have fallen victim to the rainbow jersey curse, and then with Ballan and Hincapie saying they don't want to ride in France, what on earth would BMC offer? They'd just be another breakaway team, but with fewer recognisable names than Vacansoleil.

Putting in more GC-minded teams with only one target isn't going to make the racing very exciting. Putting in another team who will attack and try and make their season will - especially if someone like Hoogerland is performing to the same ability he did in the Vuelta, whereupon he'll suddenly become rather too dangerous to let attack.

Ultimately, if BMC were already in the race and it came down to another team which will crystallise around a GC contender - say for the sake of an argument Sky, only Boasson Hagen and Lövkvist have ruled themselves out from riding - would you still favour them entering the race ahead of Vacansoleil? Or is it because it's Cadel Evans that could lose out that makes you blind to the positives of attacking teams?

Lampre, will probably put guys in some breaks and so will Euskatel. Riders sit in the peleton to be safe is when the sprinters come to the fore. Putting more GC teams will make the race more interesting I think. it will be hasrder for a team like Astana or Saxo to control the race with their leader and I think we will see a more attacking race. All breakaways pretty much do in the first week is ride off the front for a bit os sponsorship coverage get caught and lose 5 minutes into the finish. Yes it does make the race a little bit more interesting during the middle of the race but does it make a major difference to the tour as a whole? I don't think so. Someone finishing on the podium and being an outisde chance for the win is an exciting prospect. The tdf gc will be a dog fight. With the giro, we'll wait and see but why would sastre do the giro again with the tour if he didn't think he could do well in both after last year?

 

[luckyboy]

The fight for 3rd place will be a dog fight.

Corrected

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Lampre, will probably put guys in some breaks and so will Euskatel. Riders sit in the peleton to be safe is when the sprinters come to the fore. Putting more GC teams will make the race more interesting I think. it will be hasrder for a team like Astana or Saxo to control the race with their leader and I think we will see a more attacking race. All breakaways pretty much do in the first week is ride off the front for a bit os sponsorship coverage get caught and lose 5 minutes into the finish. Yes it does make the race a little bit more interesting during the middle of the race but does it make a major difference to the tour as a whole? I don't think so. Someone finishing on the podium and being an outisde chance for the win is an exciting prospect. The tdf gc will be a dog fight. With the giro, we'll wait and see but why would sastre do the giro again with the tour if he didn't think he could do well in both after last year?

Maybe this year he prioritizes the giro over the tour, a rider doesn't have to view the tour as "everything" in terms of cycling.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Lampre, will probably put guys in some breaks and so will Euskatel. Riders sit in the peleton to be safe is when the sprinters come to the fore. Putting more GC teams will make the race more interesting I think. it will be hasrder for a team like Astana or Saxo to control the race with their leader and I think we will see a more attacking race. All breakaways pretty much do in the first week is ride off the front for a bit os sponsorship coverage get caught and lose 5 minutes into the finish. Yes it does make the race a little bit more interesting during the middle of the race but does it make a major difference to the tour as a whole? I don't think so. Someone finishing on the podium and being an outisde chance for the win is an exciting prospect. The tdf gc will be a dog fight. With the giro, we'll wait and see but why would sastre do the giro again with the tour if he didn't think he could do well in both after last year?

So basically, your recipe for spicing up the Tour is to get as little variety at all in the early stages and the transition stages by limiting breakaway teams and inject spice by inserting Cadel Evans into the battle on the mountains teams? If Evans does the Giro to win, then will he have enough to be a force at the Tour? With there already being several different GC contenders on several different teams, I don't see how one more for one more team will TOTALLY change it to make it a much more exciting race in the mountain stages. Besides, the new, much-vaunted, attacking Cadel Evans attacked in the Vuelta... when exactly? I recall him attacking on Xorret del Catí, but when else? I guess that's a crapshoot though as had he not been left behind when he punctured he may have done more (though being only a minute adrift you'd have thought there could have been more excitement brought).

Like I said before, if BMC's contender was NOT Evans, would you be feeling the same way about whether a breakaway team or a GC team that, on the face of it, is fairly weak in terms of name value if Ballan and Hincapie aren't riding? I'm not convinced you would.

Personally, I hope Sky, Shack AND BMC fail to get invites and teams like Saur, Skil and Vacansoleil get them, cos I have a soft spot for the Riblons and Voecklers of this world. The GC battle already has Astana with Contador, Saxo with the Schlecks, Rabo with Menchov and Gesink, Liqui with two of their four, Cervélo with Sastre (maybe), Euskaltel with Sánchez, Garmin with VdV, maybe Caisse with Valverde... that makes eight teams. When you add the expected Shack and Sky invites to that that's ten teams fighting for control of the race. Would an eleventh REALLY make that much of a difference?

 

[Anonymous]

Will the tour be any worse without Cadel Evans?

No

Would it be better for the inclusion of VaconSoliel or another minor team.

Yes

End of

 

[karlboss]

So basically, your recipe for spicing up the Tour is to get as little variety at all in the early stages and the transition stages by limiting breakaway teams and inject spice by inserting Cadel Evans into the battle on the mountains teams? If Evans does the Giro to win, then will he have enough to be a force at the Tour? With there already being several different GC contenders on several different teams, I don't see how one more for one more team will TOTALLY change it to make it a much more exciting race in the mountain stages. Besides, the new, much-vaunted, attacking Cadel Evans attacked in the Vuelta... when exactly? I recall him attacking on Xorret del Catí, but when else? I guess that's a crapshoot though as had he not been left behind when he punctured he may have done more (though being only a minute adrift you'd have thought there could have been more excitement brought).

Like I said before, if BMC's contender was NOT Evans, would you be feeling the same way about whether a breakaway team or a GC team that, on the face of it, is fairly weak in terms of name value if Ballan and Hincapie aren't riding? I'm not convinced you would.

Personally, I hope Sky, Shack AND BMC fail to get invites and teams like Saur, Skil and Vacansoleil get them, cos I have a soft spot for the Riblons and Voecklers of this world. The GC battle already has Astana with Contador, Saxo with the Schlecks, Rabo with Menchov and Gesink, Liqui with two of their four, Cervélo with Sastre (maybe), Euskaltel with Sánchez, Garmin with VdV, maybe Caisse with Valverde... that makes eight teams. When you add the expected Shack and Sky invites to that that's ten teams fighting for control of the race. Would an eleventh REALLY make that much of a difference?

Right again to suggest if Evans were not BMC's contender the feeling would be different. Evans will add something that not many other GT contenders can. He's come second before and never won, he has experience, he's served his apprenticeship. Go through every contender and what their motivation might be. 2nd twice for an ageing competitor is a tantilising thing, and we saw it last year after the TTT. Many of the GC hopefuls, sure they'll aim to win but at 25 years old 5th will do. Many have stated that 1st and 2nd are wrapped up and it certainly appears that way, so who is in the fight for 3rd but will do something stupid for the win...I'm betting one name quickly rises to the top of that list. Oh and he's wearing a pretty jersey.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

so who is in the fight for 3rd but will do something stupid for the win...I'm betting one name quickly rises to the top of that list. Oh and he's wearing a pretty jersey.

Valverde can usually be relied on to do something stupid (rain jacket in 2008?)... I've always been partial to the Caisse d'Epargne jerseys...

 

[karlboss]

I look forward to seeing what caisse can do if they bring their strongest squad, just can't see valverde being competitive at the pointy end and actually trying a break away after his traditional one day failure.
I think Basso is the more likely candidate and expect him to be stronger.
I like the teams with 2 or more GT contenders, just for the prospect of how you use them. I'd give basso fee reign, Nibali and Kreuziger freedom, but maybe suggest conservative and try to improve on last year and tell pellizotti to be a mule.
Caisse Sanchez free reign, valverde to be conservative, and Soler and Uran as mules, though Uran interests me enough to suggest he should try for a win in the mountains.
Team Radioshack (shudders) Armstrong for the conservative win, but on the 2 days its possibly, go for the long break with Kloden or Levi.
Saxo, Schlecks to tag team like no other team in the world can right now and cancellara to sneak away for the win.

I expect too much everyone will be conservative and we will all hail Contador the winner again

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Urán is apparently a co-leader/secondary leader with Bruseghin at the Giro, I don't know if he'll ride the Tour as a result. They might use Arroyo as an élite workhorse since isso says he's doing Tour-Vuelta this year instead of his customary Giro-Tour schedule. He normally has a team leader role at the Giro. I would imagine that maybe Cobo would be the one with the free stage-hunting role though with his climbing ability he may become Valverde's right-hand man (as opposed to his personal minder, which is Kiryienka). Alongside Urán, Caisse's other hot young talent is Rui Costa, who might stagehunt on a more saw-toothed stage, from a break or something like that - maybe even into Pau since he can climb plenty but not really be part of the front group; he was top 15 at Lombardia I think and from a small break group over several mountains I'd expect him to have more left in the tank than many.

I don't know about the one day failure; I don't expect Valverde to lose enough time to be able to even try a break (even his customary one day failures in 2008 saw him lose 6 minutes to Hautacam in the Tour and 3 minutes in the Vuelta), and he's become more conservative and measured since then, as we saw in the Vuelta that he won; I don't expect him to win, but he could solidly top 5 if he avoids a one day disaster, and still top 10 if he doesn't. Also, maybe now he's finally won a Grand Tour the psychological block could be gone and the bad days will be a thing of the past.

 

[Potomac]

...

The GC battle already has Astana with Contador, Saxo with the Schlecks, Rabo with Menchov and Gesink, Liqui with two of their four, Cervélo with Sastre (maybe), Euskaltel with Sánchez, Garmin with VdV, maybe Caisse with Valverde... that makes eight teams. When you add the expected Shack and Sky invites to that that's ten teams fighting for control of the race. Would an eleventh REALLY make that much of a difference?

I think your very generous. You've named ten teams with good hopes of a top 10 finisher. But most of these teams are in the have one man hang on for a top 10 finish category and will never come close to "fighting for control of the race." Evans was good example for several years: he was good enough to stay up there and get a good position but there was never any effort from his team to control the race.

 

[Moondance]

I think your very generous. You've named ten teams with good hopes of a top 10 finisher. But most of these teams are in the have one man hang on for a top 10 finish category and will never come close to "fighting for control of the race." Evans was good example for several years: he was good enough to stay up there and get a good position but there was never any effort from his team to control the race.

+1

The only teams that I think will actually try to 'control the race' are Radio Shack, Saxo, Columbia (for the non-mountain stages) and perhaps Liquigas. Shack have the most experienced squad and Bruyneel's tactics are well known. Saxo will do what they always do, have guys like The Canc and Voigt tear up the peleton to decimate all the other teams on the mountain stages. Columbia will of course do their thing for the Cav/Greipel machine.

Liquigas is interesting. If they bring all their Four Horsemen of the GC Apocalypse (Basso, Kreuziger, Pellizotti, Nibali) they'll have ridiculous amounts of climbing ability (as well as Szmyd who can be also be outstanding), and would certainly have the talent to figure heavily on the final climbs. The question is of course how well the people they send to the Giro absorb that race. What happens there will determine to what extent they can attack the race with their GC men, and how aggressive they can/will be.

 

[karlboss]

I think your very generous. You've named ten teams with good hopes of a top 10 finisher. But most of these teams are in the have one man hang on for a top 10 finish category and will never come close to "fighting for control of the race." Evans was good example for several years: he was good enough to stay up there and get a good position but there was never any effort from his team to control the race.

Evans team has never tried to control the race, they have never been strong enough. In fact in 2008 when they did control the race and try to hold yellow it was seen as a mistake.

BMC again will be in this position if evans is riding well.

 

[kurtinsc]

Help me understand something.

Many in this thread have talked about teams without GC guys being attractive because they go on breakaways and "animate the race".

Pretty much every non-TT TDF stage I've watched since I watched my first on Lemond's second win has had a breakaway. Do people honestly think that the breakaways won't form if Vasconelli isn't there?

I really don't think another team trying to get into breaks will result in much of a different experience as a fan. We'll still see a break form on every stage. If the pelaton wants to catch them it will still happen 90% of the time. Yeah, if Vasconelli is there they'll try to get a rider in every break... but so what? Is there a real difference between a 5 man and 6 man break to the viewer?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Will the tour be any worse without brad Wiggins?

No

Would it be better for the inclusion of VaconSoliel or another minor team.

No

End of

Corrected