Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Discussion - Who will win?

[LaFlorecita]

Yeah, from the reports it seemed like that but on the footage (which you've undoubtedly seen) it looks different.

I gotta admit I haven't seen any footage showing the actual moment he drops Contador. just Kwiat attacking, Contador following, and then later Contador is chasing with Costa and Prades. It makes no sense but Contador did seem very strong on Malhao compared to Kwiat.

 

[rghysens]

Kwiatkowski is on the best TTT team and he also has the best short ITT of any of the GC contenders. It won't win him a huge chunk of time, as it's only 9.2k, but this race will be close as it is.

I rate the participating Movistar and Sky teams higher than the OPQS team. OPQS with Martin, Kwiatkowski, Golas, De Gendt, Terpstra,.. would be favorite. But with cavendish, Uran, Petacchi less so.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I rate the participating Movistar and Sky teams higher than the OPQS team. OPQS with Martin, Kwiatkowski, Golas, De Gendt, Terpstra,.. would be favorite. But with cavendish, Uran, Petacchi less so.

Not sure about Cav and Stale-Jet. These sprinters are normally very good in shorter TTTs. Particularly the flat ones.

 

[Pentacycle]

He did? From the reports it sounded like he sneaked away close to the top.

Contador attacked there and was dropped by Kwia's counter, but it seemed more like a training or test. He was still getting better with each day of racing.

 

[peloton]

Not sure about Cav and Stale-Jet. These sprinters are normally very good in shorter TTTs. Particularly the flat ones.

Agree, both are very good riders for a flat (and short) TTT.

Will be an interesting race, Evans looked pretty good today too.

 

[greenedge]

I think that if Porte has last years PN form here, he will win. However Quintana seems to be in better form at this time of year than last year and Contador will hopefully have a resurgence.

Against those 3 riders i can't see Kwiatowski winning (yet)- but he could podium.

 

[VeloHuman]

I rate the participating Movistar and Sky teams higher than the OPQS team. OPQS with Martin, Kwiatkowski, Golas, De Gendt, Terpstra,.. would be favorite. But with cavendish, Uran, Petacchi less so.

17k and flat is just the kind of course Petacchi and Cav can handle for a TTT.

I think that if Porte has last years PN form here, he will win. However Quintana seems to be in better form at this time of year than last year and Contador will hopefully have a resurgence.

Against those 3 riders i can't see Kwiatowski winning (yet)- but he could podium.

Quintana also gets the benefit of an elite bunch of time trialists leading the way on the first stage for Movistar, somewhat negating his own deficiencies in the discipline. He can just hang out behind Dowsett, Malori, and Castroviejo.

 

[Ferminal]

not if he goes full throttle on lanciano...side by side with legendary papy and alberto...uff if nothing happens again on lanciano, i don't think i will ever watch a race with lanciano in it

lol, I was hoping the weather would deliver again to save the torment.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/PassoLanciano-Majelletta/6day/bot

All clear

 

[Night Rider]

Who do you guys think will win the Tirreno race this year, especially after Froome and Nibali aren't attending I think the race is pretty open!

Hopefully Contador, if not him then Cadel. It should be a good race between them and the other favorites.

 

[Publicus]

I think that if Porte has last years PN form here, he will win. However Quintana seems to be in better form at this time of year than last year and Contador will hopefully have a resurgence.

Against those 3 riders i can't see Kwiatowski winning (yet)- but he could podium.

Quintana was just dropped on two climbs (not monster climbs either) in the Roma Maxima, so I think we can say his form is NOT better than this time last year.

 

[dicanio_michael]

Kwiat dropped Contador on a hill. Malhao is somewhere between a hill and a medium-mountain, and Contador dropped him there.

So I think Malhao says more

We are not talking huge mountain here in TA

Last year with Kwiat "First year" in OPQS, he barely lost to Contador by 1s and got forth. I don't think with TTT and ITT here, this margin will get bigger this year

 

[Parrulo]

We are not talking huge mountain here in TA

Last year with Kwiat "First year" in OPQS, he barely lost to Contador by 1s and got forth. I don't think with TTT and ITT here, this margin will get bigger this year

It all depends on how good Contador is this year. If by a miracle he was back to his 2011 level he would easily win the race and there would be nothing Kwia could do about it.

But there is a reason why i say "by a miracle" . . .

 

[Lexman]

Quintana was just dropped on two climbs (not monster climbs either) in the Roma Maxima, so I think we can say his form is NOT better than this time last year.

Maybe he was dropped because he worked for Valverde earlier on?

 

[Publicus]

Maybe he was dropped because he worked for Valverde earlier on?

Maybe. I guess we'll see.

 

[Netserk]

We are not talking huge mountain here in TA

Last year with Kwiat "First year" in OPQS, he barely lost to Contador by 1s and got forth. I don't think with TTT and ITT here, this margin will get bigger this year

2012 was Kwiat's first year with Quick Step.

 

[greenedge]

Quintana was just dropped on two climbs (not monster climbs either) in the Roma Maxima, so I think we can say his form is NOT better than this time last year.

I had said that before Roma Maxima/ based on his San Luis performance.

 

[Cimber]

Anyone but a borg

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Net App team: Benedetti, Bennett, De La Cruz, Dempster, Huzarski, Machado, Voss, Camano Ortazor.

Pity they got the invite to TA rather than PN, as that lineup looks more likely to make an impression at the latter. They described their intended team as their "strongest riders", other than Konig and Barta, so probably a preview of some of their Tour squad.

Konig was to lead, but hasn't recovered from a knee problem and won't race until the Criterium International. They don't say why Barta isn't there. In Konig's absence, Machado is to be GC leader. Bennett is to be the main sprinter, so presumably Dempster will be his final lead out.

Some nice riders there but, even assuming Machado continues his mini resurrection, they will miss Konig.

 

[the sceptic]

Anyone but a borg

Contador got this.

Other than that, will be interesting to see if Basso shows something..

 

[Escarabajo]

Quintana was just dropped on two climbs (not monster climbs either) in the Roma Maxima, so I think we can say his form is NOT better than this time last year.

Are you talking about the 46 seconds he lost in a race that he had no interest on and that he was riding for Valverde?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

how can anyone think someone like quintana or contador can win thsi when there are literally TWO stages that can make gc of which the lanciano stage doesn't even finish on that climb. sagan could win this for all I know

 

[theyoungest]

how can anyone think someone like quintana or contador can win thsi when there are literally TWO stages that can make gc of which the lanciano stage doesn't even finish on that climb. sagan could win this for all I know

Stage 4 finishes on a 14 k climb of which the last 5 k are above 6%... agreed, it's not the hardest climb in the world, but guys like Porte, Quintana, Contador should be able to get a decent gap, if on decent form.

 

[the sceptic]

how can anyone think someone like quintana or contador can win thsi when there are literally TWO stages that can make gc of which the lanciano stage doesn't even finish on that climb. sagan could win this for all I know

you think Sagan wont get dropped on Lanciano if the skytrain goes full gas?

 

[Amsterdam]

Very interesting race. Good to see what's the form of the GC guys. Watch out for Pozzovivo!

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Stage 4 finishes on a 14 k climb of which the last 5 k are above 6%... agreed, it's not the hardest climb in the world, but guys like Porte, Quintana, Contador should be able to get a decent gap, if on decent form.

yes and that is one of 2 stages. don't eb surporised to see guys like sagan hang on to that in march