Tirreno -Adriatico

[Moondance]

Now, don't forget that he's been top 10 in Amstel gold race. It's not likely that he will win, but I wouldn't call say it's ridiculous to suggest so.

True, but it's also been a few years since he's done that. His performances in the hilly classics have been dropping steadily in the last 2/3 seasons. I'd certainly be pleased if he won, but I'll be looking more to the likes of Scarponi, Ginanni, Gesink, Evans, Sanchez.... Maybe Vino

 

[issoisso]

True, but it's also been a few years since he's done that. His performances in the hilly classics have been dropping steadily in the last 2/3 seasons. I'd certainly be pleased if he won, but I'll be looking more to the likes of Scarponi, Ginanni, Gesink, Evans, Sanchez.... Maybe Vino

I agree completely, except on one thing.

Vino has (m)dental problems. He'll miss Eroica and won't be able to train properly before Tirreno.

Besides, he's peaking later on in the season.

Gesink isn't nearly explosive enough to get the bonus seconds that will decide this.

 

[taiwan]

True, but it's also been a few years since he's done that. His performances in the hilly classics have been dropping steadily in the last 2/3 seasons. I'd certainly be pleased if he won, but I'll be looking more to the likes of Scarponi, Ginanni, Gesink, Evans, Sanchez.... Maybe Vino

Sanchez isn't riding, he's at Paris-Nice.

 

[issoisso]

Sanchez isn't riding, he's at Paris-Nice.

He means Samuel

 

[Moondance]

Sanchez isn't riding, he's at Paris-Nice.

What isso said, my bad.

Although, Samuel Sanchez is still taking part in both races, if the respective websites of the courses are to be believed.

 

[taiwan]

He means Samuel

Yeah, that's who I meant, he's on the near complete start list for the Paris-Nice. Or am I out of date?

[edit] Well, he's on both startlists, but the Paris-Nice one looks more convincing.

Which do you think he'd be better riding? The startlist for P-N is V. tough, but he'd be one of the favourites, I think

 

[issoisso]

Yeah, that's who I meant, he's on the near complete start list for the Paris-Nice. Or am I out of date?

Euskaltel put Sanchez on their official Tirreno list a week ago. Maybe they switched everything around when Sicard got injured?

Sicard might not recover for Paris-Nice, but will definitely recover for Tirreno, so maybe they switched them around. Who knows.

 

[Moondance]

I agree completely, except on one thing.

Vino has (m)dental problems. He'll miss Eroica and won't be able to train properly before Tirreno.

Besides, he's peaking later on in the season.

Gesink isn't nearly explosive enough to get the bonus seconds that will decide this.

While I agree with you that he isn't the most likely winner, stages 4 & 5 are really long, and finish uphill. To say that it is certain that the race will come down to who can sprint for the bonus seconds out of an elite group is rubbish. It could happen, but the profiles definitely offer the chance for someone to outclimb their rivals, and Gesink is capable of that. Gesink could also still have bad form coming from his flu last month and not be able to stick with the favorites at all, let alone outclimb them.

Also, Vino is never out of a race.... Although since he comeback he is also rarely 'in' the race. Suicide attacks do work once every blue moon. He's a very, very dark horse at best; but I love him all the same.

 

[issoisso]

While I agree with you that he isn't the most likely winner, stages 4 & 5 are really long, and finish uphill. To say that it is certain that the race will come down to who can sprint for the bonus seconds out of an elite group is rubbish. It could happen, but the profiles definitely offer the chance for someone to outclimb their rivals, and Gesink is capable of that. Gesink could also still have bad form coming from his flu last month and not be able to stick with the favorites at all, let alone outclimb them.

I don't think it's "rubbish" at all. I don't see anyone opening decent sized gaps and finishing alone here.

 

[Moondance]

I don't think it's "rubbish" at all. I don't see anyone opening decent sized gaps and finishing alone here.

Okay.

I think it's defintely possible that there will only be grupettos at the finish, perhaps even the most likely outcome. But if you look at stage 5; about 2800m of climbing spread over the various hills if i look at the profile. That's pretty diffucult, and if someone has a good day there they could definitely make a difference. Anyway, no need to talk about it anymore, I think we've both established our opinions .

 

[taiwan]

Euskaltel put Sanchez on their official Tirreno list a week ago. Maybe they switched everything around when Sicard got injured?

Sicard might not recover for Paris-Nice, but will definitely recover for Tirreno, so maybe they switched them around. Who knows.

Sorry, banging on about this. This makes it look like Sanchez and Sicard are riding the P-N. Anyway, I thought they weren't going to ask too much of Sicard at this stage: leading the Paris-Nice?

Freire: for the points, he'll have to make any splits that occur on stages with multiple climbs, all of them. It's possible, but I'd assume they were riding for Gesink.

 

[issoisso]

Sorry, banging on about this. This makes it look like Sanchez and Sicard are riding the P-N. Anyway, I thought they weren't going to ask too much of Sicard at this stage: leading the Paris-Nice?

Seems like they screwed up their press releases, then

 

[auscyclefan94]

Freire for the overall win? That's absolutely ridiculous



for example, the final km's in the Chieti stage, that's not for Freire,

http://www.gazzetta.it/grandeciclismo/tirrenoadriatico/tappa_4_ukm.shtml

Colmurano with a wall of 800 m at a gradient of 15%

http://www.gazzetta.it/grandeciclismo/tirrenoadriatico/tappa_5_ukm.shtml

The difficult side of Macerata (before the final climb a little bump of 1,5k at 9,5%

http://www.gazzetta.it/grandeciclismo/tirrenoadriatico/tappa_6_ukm.shtml

etc......

Thanks for that...
From looking at that
I think the favourites will be Schleck, Kirchen, Rogers, Gesink, Friere, Nibali, Samuel Sanchez, Evans and Scarponi.

 

[issoisso]

Thanks for that...
From looking at that
I think the favourites will be Schleck, Kirchen, Rogers, Gesink, Friere, Nibali, Samuel Sanchez, Evans and Scarponi.

A. Schleck in form for more than 2/3 weeks a year? I really really REALLY doubt he'll do any more than finish in the autobus many minutes behind stage after stage.

 

[auscyclefan94]

A. Schleck in form for more than 2/3 weeks a year? I really really REALLY doubt he'll do any more than finish in the autobus many minutes behind stage after stage.

You would think he would want to get some form up for the classics and the finishes of stages 4,5,6 are schleck finishes. Don't think he'll win as I am tipping Gesink but i think he'll go alright.

 

[issoisso]

You would think he would want to get some form up for the classics

He'll do that the way he always does it. By training, doing nothing in races, then "magically" (cough) showing up for his two season goals flying.

You know, that thing that any sports trainer will tell you is impossible, but "somehow" started happening to most GC riders since the mid 90s.

A. Schleck is the most extreme example of this. He never does anything outside his season goals. Anything. Mark my words, he'll lose minutes.

 

[Moondance]

A. Schleck in form for more than 2/3 weeks a year? I really really REALLY doubt he'll do any more than finish in the autobus many minutes behind stage after stage.

Okay... Who are you tipping for the win then. Give us your top 3.

 

[issoisso]

Okay... Who are you tipping for the win then. Give us your top 3.

Like I said before, it's going to come down to the very small gaps that can be opened, and to bonus seconds. It's going to be extremely close, and if you're not a punchy rider with a good finish you're only going to win by being extremely smart or extremely lucky.

There's also a chance a break gets out of hand and one guy in it lucks out.

Either way, the GC will come down to a matter of seconds. Aussiecyclefan94 mentioned Kirchen, Evans and Scarponi for example. I feel all three have a good chance of being up there (even if Kirchen's training hasn't gone smoothly lately, he does have a very good sprint).

EDIT: That is not a top3, by the way

 

[auscyclefan94]

Okay... Who are you tipping for the win then. Give us your top 3.

1. gesink
2. evans
3. Kirchen

 

[Moondance]

1. gesink
2. evans
3. Kirchen

Has Hell frozen over, or what?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Has Hell frozen over, or what?

No! isso's well respected opinion even said that Kirchen and Evans would be up there.

Put your money Mr Evans for MPE tonight. he's going to rip it apart.

 

[tgsgirl]

Put your money Mr Evans for MPE tonight. he's going to rip it apart.

Only if Eroica steps on his dog.

 

[Moondance]

No! isso's well respected opinion even said that Kirchen and Evans would be up there.

Put your money Mr Evans for MPE tonight. he's going to rip it apart.

No, I meant picking Gesink over Evans... Seems weird for you.

Evans defintely can finish highly, he's defintely a candidate for victory. My omly concern with Evans is his schedule. He was already riding hard Down Under, he wants to do the April classics as well, then ride the Giro, and then the Tour. He might even be 'encouraged' by his team to ride in the Tour of Switzerland, where BMC will defintely be out in force. Then he wants to do everything to defend his WC jersey on home soil. I think Evans may be taking slightly too much on his plate this year, as talented as he is. He can't be good everywhere.

 

[auscyclefan94]

No, I meant picking Gesink over Evans... Seems weird for you.

Evans defintely can finish highly, he's defintely a candidate for victory. My omly concern with Evans is his schedule. He was already riding hard Down Under, he wants to do the April classics as well, then ride the Giro, and then the Tour. He might even be 'encouraged' by his team to ride in the Tour of Switzerland, where BMC will defintely be out in force. Then he wants to do everything to defend his WC jersey on home soil. I think Evans may be taking slightly too much on his plate this year, as talented as he is. He can't be good everywhere.

Definetly no Tour of Suisse, april classics is not going to be that much of a goal this year and he said the world road race he won't go there with great form as he won't be there for the win. I do see your point and I am a little bit nervous about if he is going to be racing too much.''

Yes my pick does seem a little bit weird but i think gesink might come up with the goods!

 

[taiwan]

1.Nibali
2.Visconti
3.Scarponi

In the top ten: Lofkvist, Garzelli, Gesink, Vinokourov, Hejesdal, Pellizotti, Evans, Gerdemann.

That's counting on there actually being splits on climby stages, which there might not be.

[edit] prediction techniques: No.1: format of predictions should allow every possible contender to be mentioned.