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Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

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Jul 28, 2019
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And the polka dot jersey is won by attackers. In all tour's history, attackers (elite climbers) like virenque were winning this jersey. Nowadays, these climbers are turning in gc contenders because of this joke of putting 30 km of TT in the tour
Wondering why that is, why so few TT kilometers nowadays?
 
Wondering why that is, why so few TT kilometers nowadays?
Because, a) “people” don’t like time trials (don’t ask me which people) and b) if you put 100km of TT in any TdF route in the past decade, it’s basically giving Sky (be it Froome, Thomas or Wiggins, but not Bernal so much) a 2 minute head start over any other realistic GC contenders, until the emergence of Roglic and Dumoulin.
 
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Jul 28, 2019
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Because, a) “people” don’t like time trials (don’t ask me which people) and b) if you put 100km of TT in any TdF route in the past decade, it’s basically giving Sky (be it Froome, Thomas or Wiggins, but not Bernal so much) a 2 minute head start over any other realistic GC contenders, until the emergence of Roglic and Dumoulin.
Are TTs really more boring for, let's say casual fans than flat stages? I feel a TT heavy GT once in a while would be an exciting change, a prologue, a long TTT, 2 ITTs. Maybe it would even create a more animated race in the mountains, forcing pure climbers to attack earlier, not waiting for the last few km to gain 20 seconds.
 
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And the polka dot jersey is won by attackers. In all tour's history, attackers (elite climbers) like virenque were winning this jersey. Nowadays, these climbers are turning in gc contenders because of this joke of putting 30 km of TT in the tour
And now we have entered a completely different conversation. So Im gonna opt out from here on now. I only explained why a tour contains sprint stages and why teams that has a really great sprinter put value in trying to win the green jersey with them. That was what I was responding to in your first post in which I quoted.
 
Are TTs really more boring for, let's say casual fans than flat stages? I feel a TT heavy GT once in a while would be an exciting change, a prologue, a long TTT, 2 ITTs. Maybe it would even create a more animated race in the mountains, forcing pure climbers to attack earlier, not waiting for the last few km to gain 20 seconds.
What you describe is what the format generally was in the 80s/90s/00s. But what tended to happen was one rider (Hinault, Lemond, Indurain, Ullrich, Armstrong) would win all the TTs, or at least gain so much time in the TTs, that climbers/attackers like Pantani, Virenque, Chiapucci has no hope of making up the time.

Thing is, at least back then, the other contenders were all-rounders (Jalabert), TTers who could climb (Zulle, Rominger) or climbers who could TT a bit. Whereas in the 2010s, all the gc riders are primarily climbers, with the exception of Froome. And now Roglic and Dumoulin.
 
2012 was very heavily TT-favouring route and many consider it the worst Tour this decade.

And even worse, it didn't have a single HC mountaintop finish.
2012 was only TT-heavy by post-2008 standards. Any year before that, 100kms of TT would have been standard or even pretty low.

2012 was boring because Sky kept the race under complete control. A part of that control was through Wiggins being comfortably the best time trialist in the race. But they also had the best climbing team, so even if there had been an Alpe d’Heuz or Ventoux, finish the result would have been the same.
 
Dumoulin seems optimistic in his latest few interviews.

Says he he rather ride for someone else than have a team ride for him and get 6th if it comes to that.

Also said he'd have loved to ride this WC to help VdP win.
 
2012 was only TT-heavy by post-2008 standards. Any year before that, 100kms of TT would have been standard or even pretty low.

2012 was boring because Sky kept the race under complete control. A part of that control was through Wiggins being comfortably the best time trialist in the race. But they also had the best climbing team, so even if there had been an Alpe d’Heuz or Ventoux, finish the result would have been the same.
It also in had a seriously weak field with cuddles on the way out nibs needing a few more years and a better team and Berti had eat too much beef
 
It also in had a seriously weak field with cuddles on the way out nibs needing a few more years and a better team and Berti had eat too much beef
Evans was surprisingly bad in 2012. From what I remember they found out after the race that he had some sort of infection. With the amount of TT km's, Evans still would have struggled to beat Wiggins on that course and Wiggins was an underrated climber.

Hopefully Dumoulin can get back to his best. It will make the grand tours more interesting.
 
What you describe is what the format generally was in the 80s/90s/00s. But what tended to happen was one rider (Hinault, Lemond, Indurain, Ullrich, Armstrong) would win all the TTs, or at least gain so much time in the TTs, that climbers/attackers like Pantani, Virenque, Chiapucci has no hope of making up the time.

Thing is, at least back then, the other contenders were all-rounders (Jalabert), TTers who could climb (Zulle, Rominger) or climbers who could TT a bit. Whereas in the 2010s, all the gc riders are primarily climbers, with the exception of Froome. And now Roglic and Dumoulin.
There were 30 GTs completed since 2010 and if I'm not mistaken we have the following winners:

Froome, Contador, Nibali, Quintana, Evans, Wiggins, Hesjedal, Horner, Aru, Dumoulin, Thomas, Yates, Carapaz, Bernal and Roglic.

Only Quintana, Horner, Carapaz, Aru and to some extent Yates and Bernal are lacking in the TT department. We have exceptional TTers (Froome, Wiggins, Dumoulin, Roglic), very good (Contador, Thomas) and good ones (Nibali, Evans). I have no idea where to put Hesjedal.

Edit: Forgot about Cobo, nada TT skills for him.
 
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There were 30 GTs completed since 2010 and if I'm not mistaken we have the following winners:

Froome, Contador, Nibali, Quintana, Evans, Wiggins, Hesjedal, Horner, Aru, Dumoulin, Thomas, Yates, Carapaz, Bernal and Roglic.

Only Quintana, Horner, Carapaz, Aru and to some extent Yates and Bernal are lacking in the TT department. We have exceptional TTers (Froome, Wiggins, Dumoulin, Roglic), very good (Contador, Thomas) and good ones (Nibali, Evans). I have no idea where to put Hesjedal.

Edit: Forgot about Cobo, nada TT skills for him.
It’s
There were 30 GTs completed since 2010 and if I'm not mistaken we have the following winners:

Froome, Contador, Nibali, Quintana, Evans, Wiggins, Hesjedal, Horner, Aru, Dumoulin, Thomas, Yates, Carapaz, Bernal and Roglic.

Only Quintana, Horner, Carapaz, Aru and to some extent Yates and Bernal are lacking in the TT department. We have exceptional TTers (Froome, Wiggins, Dumoulin, Roglic), very good (Contador, Thomas) and good ones (Nibali, Evans). I have no idea where to put Hesjedal.

Edit: Forgot about Cobo, nada TT skills for him.
Being good at TT will always help, because it gains a minute or two advantage on most modern GT routes. But that’s ground that a good climber can make up. My point is that up to 10-15 years ago, the likes of Aru, Quintana, Yates but also podium finishers like Landa, Bardet, Lopez, Chavez would have lost an automatic 7-8 minutes over the routes with 2 TTs, plus TTT, plus prologue, plus maybe an MTT thrown in, that predominated until the mid-00’s. You had to be an exceptional climber (Pantani, Delgado, van Impe) to win a GT without also being a Top-10 TTer. Or be an exceptional climber AND have the leader abandon days from the finish (Herrera).
 
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Remember how Roglic' win in the Vuelta never being in doubt was the only negative point about the Vuelta?

Decrease in ITTage is the counter to mountain trains and closer mountain stages, like slower tennis courts are the counter to changes in racket technology.

Now obviously I'm not saying every GT should have one 25km ITT, but I just think the days of 100+ km of ITT in a GT should be over unless something also drastically changes about mountain stages.

I think the bottom line should be about 40km of ITTage and I also think only the Giro could put in 80km of ITTs and still remain balanced.

Obviously all this would always depend on which riders are the best in the world at any given point.
 
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Only Quintana, Horner, Carapaz, Aru and to some extent Yates and Bernal are lacking in the TT department. We have exceptional TTers (Froome, Wiggins, Dumoulin, Roglic), very good (Contador, Thomas) and good ones (Nibali, Evans). I have no idea where to put Hesjedal.

Edit: Forgot about Cobo, nada TT skills for him.
Evans was usually better TT-er than Contador.
Quintana was pretty good TT-er during his best years.

You had to be an exceptional climber (Pantani, Delgado, van Impe) to win a GT without also being a Top-10 TT-er.
Pantani and van Impe were good TT-ers during their GT wins. In 1998 TdF Pantani was 3rd in second long TT.

Without a few exceptions, GT winners have always been very good in both departments: climbing and ITT.
 
Dec 21, 2015
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Remember how Roglic' win in the Vuelta never being in doubt was the only negative point about the Vuelta?

Decrease in ITTage is the counter to mountain trains and closer mountain stages, like slower tennis courts are the counter to changes in racket technology.

Now obviously I'm not saying every GT should have one 25km ITT, but I just think the days of 100+ km of ITT in a GT should be over unless something also drastically changes about mountain stages.

I think the bottom line should be about 40km of ITTage and I also think only the Giro could put in 80km of ITTs and still remain balanced.

Obviously all this would always depend on which riders are the best in the world at any given point.
The bolded bit is an interesting point - if we started putting in 100km + of TTs into Grand Tours again, would we still have competitive races, but simply between a different group of riders?
Obviously the Quintanas & Landas of this world wouldn't be competing for GT podiums anymore and would be consigned to stage wins & mountain jerseys. But we perhaps would see Froome, Dumoulin, Roglic & Thomas nullify each other in the TTs and then be forced to race against each other more aggresively in the mountains. Over time, perhaps we would see a larger number of TT-gifted riders (such as Dennis, Evenepoel, even Kangert) develop and enter the fray, resulting in a highly competitive GC battle among true all-rounders...?
 
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Quintana was 2nd in the 2013 Tour that had a couple of TT. MTT is not the problems for climbers either. You have to exclude that. And Vanimpe, Pantani and Delgado I don't remember them as good TT's. Maybe just like Sastre they had an excepcional TT of their life during their respective wins. Bur that's it. Being in form help. At least for Quintana.
 
Quintana was 2nd in the 2013 Tour that had a couple of TT. MTT is not the problems for climbers either. You have to exclude that. And Vanimpe, Pantani and Delgado I don't remember them as good TT's. Maybe just like Sastre they had an excepcional TT of their life during their respective wins. Bur that's it. Being in form help. At least for Quintana.
In Delgado's 88 TdeF win, of the top 10 in the long TT Visentini was best placed in Paris at 22nd. Next was winner of the TT Sean Yates who finished 59th on GC!

No doubt funny weather on the day, but a lot of the top TTing GC candidates were absent either injured - Lemond, Roche, had retired by then - Hinault, abandoned the race (all after the TT) - Fignon, Bernard & Mottet, or hadn't found the magic formula yet - Indurain, Bugno & Rominger.

Delgado's climbing basically crushed the field - he won by 7 minutes.
 
In Delgado's 88 TdeF win, of the top 10 in the long TT Visentini was best placed in Paris at 22nd. Next was winner of the TT Sean Yates who finished 59th on GC!

No doubt funny weather on the day, but a lot of the top TTing GC candidates were absent either injured - Lemond, Roche, had retired by then - Hinault, abandoned the race (all after the TT) - Fignon, Bernard & Mottet, or hadn't found the magic formula yet - Indurain, Bugno & Rominger.

Delgado's climbing basically crushed the field - he won by 7 minutes.
That is the infamous TT for Delgado. But he wasn't as good.
 
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The bolded bit is an interesting point - if we started putting in 100km + of TTs into Grand Tours again, would we still have competitive races, but simply between a different group of riders?
Obviously the Quintanas & Landas of this world wouldn't be competing for GT podiums anymore and would be consigned to stage wins & mountain jerseys. But we perhaps would see Froome, Dumoulin, Roglic & Thomas nullify each other in the TTs and then be forced to race against each other more aggresively in the mountains. Over time, perhaps we would see a larger number of TT-gifted riders (such as Dennis, Evenepoel, even Kangert) develop and enter the fray, resulting in a highly competitive GC battle among true all-rounders...?
I think this is a point I was trying to make. Different routes would lead to different gc contenders. A rider like Kiriyenka might have been a gc leader for a few years rather than a road captain. Tony Martin was talked about as a gc contender in his younger years. Geraint Thomas might have been pushed towards the GC option earlier in his career, rather than trying to win classics.

At the same time, I don’t think it would make a difference to a rider like Kwiatkowski, whose main issue seems to be day-to-day recovery rather than getting over climbs.
 
I think this is a point I was trying to make. Different routes would lead to different gc contenders. A rider like Kiriyenka might have been a gc leader for a few years rather than a road captain. Tony Martin was talked about as a gc contender in his younger years. Geraint Thomas might have been pushed towards the GC option earlier in his career, rather than trying to win classics.

At the same time, I don’t think it would make a difference to a rider like Kwiatkowski, whose main issue seems to be day-to-day recovery rather than getting over climbs.
Nah man these guys never had the climbing chops.
 

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