Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[SafeBet]

Jumbo looked perfectly fine without Dumoulin working.
Looking at the profiles I don't see this changing until stage 15. Which team can make Kuss (or even Van Aert) suffer? And that's without G. Bennett, who might recover sooner than later.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm pretty sure yesterday van Aert and Gesink were supposed to take it easy and Bennett and Kuss should've controlled the climb. Van Aert didn't see Bennett and Kuss so he stuck around, which was the right decision cause Bennett is still recovering and got dropped.

Dumoulin and Roglic were communicating a lot in the final 3km, and I think when Roglic got out of the train like twice to look around he was looking for Dumoulin. Dumoulin told Roglic he wasn't good but not in a way that said 'please don't go too fast' but probably more in a way like 'if you rip it now I can't help you in the last km.'

I'm very sure Dumoulin and Roglic see eye to eye and that Dumoulin will work for Roglic if it comes down to it. However, the sheer strength of Kuss makes it rather unlikely to be necessary early, especially if Kuss is simply better than Dumoulin, in which case it becomes a question of whether they already want to go all in on Roglic or if they desperately want to keep Dumoulin around.

Dumoulin felt bad yesterday and finished 11th on a climb that ridden in a negative split which doesn't suit him. He's also one of the most consistent guys over 3 weeks in a GT, and you can probably be sure that his worst day is still a lot better than almost everyone else, so I think that's a good reason for keeping him around.

Literally the only downside for Dumoulin is yesterday was a stage that suited van Aert very well, and he can't really be expected to do as much work or be there as late in a mountain stage if there's 3 hard climbs or if there's HCs out there. But then the big hope would be Bennett is a lot better by the Pyrenees or especially the Alps.

 

[Berflamand]

I'm pretty sure yesterday van Aert and Gesink were supposed to take it easy and Bennett and Kuss should've controlled the climb. Van Aert didn't see Bennett and Kuss so he stuck around, which was the right decision cause Bennett is still recovering and got dropped.

Yes, that is exactly what van Aert told Belgian media afterwards. The plan was for Bennett and Kuss to control the climb but they were nowhere to be seen once the climb started. Apparently they always struggle with positioning and easily get pushed away so van Aert decided to stay with Roglic and Dumoulin. When Jungels and Nieve were done pulling, he felt that he still had a few minutes of pushing 500 watts left so he started pulling. In the end Kuss made it to the front and could take over when van Aert was done.

Please forgive my ignorance but what does it mean when you say that the climb was ridden in a negative split?

 

[bajbar]

Yes, that is exactly what van Aert told Belgian media afterwards. The plan was for Bennett and Kuss to control the climb but they were nowhere to be seen once the climb started. Apparently they always struggle with positioning and easily get pushed away so van Aert decided to stay with Roglic and Dumoulin. When Jungels and Nieve were done pulling, he felt that he still had a few minutes of pushing 500 watts left so he started pulling. In the end Kuss made it to the front and could take over when van Aert was done.

Please forgive my ignorance but what does it mean when you say that the climb was ridden in a negative split?

Negative split usually means starting slow, finishing fast - basically doing the second part quicker than the first.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes, that is exactly what van Aert told Belgian media afterwards. The plan was for Bennett and Kuss to control the climb but they were nowhere to be seen once the climb started. Apparently they always struggle with positioning and easily get pushed away so van Aert decided to stay with Roglic and Dumoulin. When Jungels and Nieve were done pulling, he felt that he still had a few minutes of pushing 500 watts left so he started pulling. In the end Kuss made it to the front and could take over when van Aert was done.

Please forgive my ignorance but what does it mean when you say that the climb was ridden in a negative split?

They did the end of the climb at a higher power than the start. I think this is an underrated tactical aspect especially in terms of when gaps are big and when they're really small. I think Dumoulin does best with a consistent pace or when they just throws themselves at a climb, he gets dropped early then he drives himself back. Negative splits really favor riderse who have a huge 1 minute power after going most of the climb at or just below their limit.

 

[webvan]

How do we know they did a negative split on the climb, has there been an article written about that or a Strava file analysis ?

 

[Red Rick]

How do we know they did a negative split on the climb, has there been an article written about that or a Strava file analysis ?

Just by interviews and when riders drop and stop dropping etc. Strava files are incredibly inconsistent, cause it has Pinot averaging 700W on the final climb.

 

[Gigs_98]

So I'm not super convinced in Dumoulin's shape but yesterday really wasn't ridden in a way that suits him.
Dumoulin isn't good at following fast accelerations, he never was. The way he rides big climbs is that he watches the climbers getting a gap, doesn't care, sets his own pace and usually catches the climbers sooner or later. When there is basically an uphill sprint he cannot do that though as there is no road left to reel in the climbers. Just look back at his results in the past.

He only finished 8th in the Gran Sasso mtf in the 2018 giro which came down to very late acceleration by Yates, which he couldn't follow. A few stages later Yates attacks right at the beginning of a two kilometre ramp, which on paper looks even worse for Dumoulin, gets a similar gap immediately but once Tom finds his rhythm the gap only got smaller.

The main reason why he won the Oropa stage in 2017 was because Quintana attacked early, got a gap and went too deep trying to maintain it. I'm pretty sure if Quintana attacks with 1 km to go that stage ends very differently. In fact, funnily enough, if Dumoulin wants to gain time on climbs he is basically relying on the climbers to go too early as that allows him to make the climb into a mountain time trial and that's where he can beat them.

What that means in terms of "should Dumoulin just commit to helping Roglic" is that I still don't think he should. Dumoulin is still in a position where everything is possible for him and as cycling is a sport where everything can happen any minute I still think having a 2nd card to play is the right decision for JV. What if Roglic crashes? What if he fades in the 3rd week (which, just saying, he has before), hell what if he leads by 5 minutes, catches covid on stage 20 and has to abandon. You never know and I feel like it's nonsense to give up on Dumoulin when there is no need for it. Where the f*ck is the benefit for Roglic if Dumoulin does the dirty work for him if Kuss could have done it as well.
Also, in case someone attacks Roglic when the group is already reduced Dumoulin will probably just ride tempo to close the gap anyway, cause that's how Dumoulin rides gt's.

 

[Gigs_98]

They did the end of the climb at a higher power than the start. I think this is an underrated tactical aspect especially in terms of when gaps are big and when they're really small. I think Dumoulin does best with a consistent pace or when they just throws themselves at a climb, he gets dropped early then he drives himself back. Negative splits really favor riderse who have a huge 1 minute power after going most of the climb at or just below their limit.

It's actually a pretty weird situation for JV as they have two gc riders who prefer climbs to be ridden very differently. Dumoulin will never beat Roglic if they climb like yesterday but I'm not sure if Roglic could pace himself up a mountain as well as Dumoulin.

How do we know they did a negative split on the climb, has there been an article written about that or a Strava file analysis ?

I think the whole "negative split" thing often isn't really meant literally. It's mostly about how the climb is approached and if the riders drop out of the group slowly but surely we are inclined to think it was a negative split. Meanwhile if the peloton explodes right at the beginning of the climb we are inclined to think it was a positive split. I've never actually looked at the exact numbers before claiming one or the other cause it doesn't change the way a climb was ridden and at the end that's the only thing that matters. If the pace steadily seems to increase I call it a negative split, if it's super high right from the start I call it a positive split.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He's struggling a bit now, but i still see him improve over the next two weeks. As long as he doesn't lose time now, who knows.

 

[Red Rick]

It's actually a pretty weird situation for JV as they have two gc riders who prefer climbs to be ridden very differently. Dumoulin will never beat Roglic if they climb like yesterday but I'm not sure if Roglic could pace himself up a mountain as well as Dumoulin.


I think the whole "negative split" thing often isn't really meant literally. It's mostly about how the climb is approached and if the riders drop out of the group slowly but surely we are inclined to think it was a negative split. Meanwhile if the peloton explodes right at the beginning of the climb we are inclined to think it was a positive split. I've never actually looked at the exact numbers before claiming one or the other cause it doesn't change the way a climb was ridden and at the end that's the only thing that matters. If the pace steadily seems to increase I call it a negative split, if it's super high right from the start I call it a positive split.

I think they can actually do pretty negative splits literally, but it will largely depend on the climb itself being steeper all the way to the end, or the team leader doing a final km attack or something. Mostly makes sense when sheer numberical advantage already discourages attacks on a flatter gradient, like Sierra Nevada 2017.

Anyway the crazy happens when they just throw the domestiques against the wall early, which has made me think about the potential importance of an easier start of the climb, cause if they're clearly starting a climb above threshold then a 5-6% gradient makes drafting so important it's debatable/potentially just better to take the blow up later.

They also often talk about the transition from flat to climbing and how hard that is and how that's why you sometimes see big gaps but it's a bit of a weird thing and I'm not sure how to intepret that physiologically.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Current fav yeah, but only shot? Dumoulin remains one of the best third week riders with a great TT. Plus these kind of finishes are made for Roglic.

Roglic wasn't the only one who smoked him, though. He got dropped by about 10 GC guys when Kuss was at the front.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVM73NgGCuc


Dumoulin is actually pretty punchy himself when he's on. Definitely more so than some of the riders who finished in front of him.

 

[Lequack]

Wasn't that always his style though? Even when he was racing Aru or Froome back when, he would always not react immediately and just TT his way back.

 

[dercuforever]

Wasn't that always his style though? Even when he was racing Aru or Froome back when, he would always not react immediately and just TT his way back.

I recall his early 1v1 with Chaves in the vuelta. He seemed quite punchy at that time. But he was very young. Longer climbs with a higher pace should suit it better now.

 

[Red Rick]

His punch has probably suffered more from training for GTs than his ITT. Also, bad days just happen.

 

[JosephK]

I think Dumoulin's doing well to be where he is, considering the length of time he was completely away from racing and the way his initial care/recovery from that nasty knee injury at the Giro was botched. He's not 100% on form and may not get there in this TDF, but I think he'll be there for 2021 (if not by this season's end).

 

[Big Doopie]

Which team can make Kuss (or even Van Aert) suffer? And that's without G. Bennett, who might recover sooner than later.

totally agree with this.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So, from what i understand, it was Tom's own decision to start working for Roglic, because he felt he wasn't going to be able to win the Tour...

Well Tom, you're a dumbass. Even if it were true, that you could feel that you would not be able to win the Tour, even if you could sense your legs wouldn't improve over the next two weeks... Roglic's rivals don't know that, not for sure. It would have been a huge tactical advantage, being able to bluff having two leaders. If you don't start pulling the peloton, you might have bridged (or not even have dropped at all).

(Or, you're a genius. Nobody expects much from you in GC anymore, and you can start ninja'ing the next two weeks, and then BAM... blow eveybody away in the ITT.)

 

[MADRAZO]

So, from what i understand, it was Tom's own decision to start working for Roglic, because he felt he wasn't going to be able to win the Tour...

Well Tom, you're a dumbass. Even if it were true, that you could feel that you would not be able to win the Tour, even if you could sense your legs wouldn't improve over the next two weeks... Roglic's rivals don't know that, not for sure. It would have been a huge tactical advantage, being able to bluff having two leaders. If you don't start pulling the peloton, you might have bridged (or not even have dropped at all).

(Or, you're a genius. Nobody expects much from you in GC anymore, and you can start ninja'ing the next two weeks, and then BAM... blow eveybody away in the ITT.)

Before someone might have attacked thinking Dumoulin would not help pull, now the Jumbo-train looks even more scary, especially if Kuss just had a bad day today. I think Dumoulin showing he is willing to sacrifice himself is more of a advantage for the team , than a bluff with 2 leaders, that would work much better if the 2 leaders were both attacking rydertypes, unlike Dumoulin.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Likely Dumoulin knew what the team plan for the day was, had realized Kuss couldn't deliver today and had decided he will step up, or the plan will fall apart. He might have realized, during the first week, this year it would be hard for him to win. Hence if he can't win, he would still want to be in the winning team. And will do whatever he can, to help the team in achieving that goal.

Hats off.

 

[IndianCyclist]

He can still do a long ranger as he is within 3 mins like he did in 2018

 

[Bardamu]

With this weak mentality he will probably never win a bike race in his life again.

 

[savornin]

Dumoulin fan here. Dumoulin has got a self-defeating mindset here. Publicly saying he does not feel strong, sacrificing his chances... for what?!? Publicly saying he's not going to win the Tour and he's going to ride for Roglic from now on...
Dutch bluntness is not helping him here, and he does not believe in himself. Bernal shows how it's supposed to be done, hasn't been looking strong as well, but is not commenting on this and silently following wheels, waiting for the day he feels strong again. Tom can't play the poker game needed for three weeks Tour and has thrown his cards out of the window. He has beaten himself.

 

[Lequack]

But that's just Tom and that's why we love him.

 

[savornin]

Nica and all, but I want him to win the Tour. His moment may have passed after 2018. Remains to be seen if he can come back at 17 18 level. And there are new contenders now.