As a Dutchman I am really really rooting for Tom. At the same time, I would be surprised if he wins this year. Or if he ever will win. Tom was world class in 17 and 18, since then Froome and Thomas have fallen away but Bernal and Roglic have risen and riders like Pogacar and Evenepoel are on their way. Also, the diminishing of ITT's in the Tour in order to help the French riders is a disadvantage for ITT specialist Tom.
Taking into account that Tom is coming back from a long period of inactivity, yesterday wasn't bad, these short climbs do not pander to his strengths. All in all, it remains to be seen whether Tom will be back at his 17 and 18 level, this Tour or ever.