The four best TTers from the GC guys are the four best climbers as well. Very strange! What are the pure climbers doing?
The level is very high as well, if we look at the climbing times.
As for Tom, he has a fantastic race and without the stage 6 problem he would be in pole position now. As for the rest of the race how can he win?
In my opinion, Thomas, Froome and Roglic are on a very similar level for the upcoming TT, and Tom can beat all of them by an approximately 30 sec margin. That means that he needs to find 1:20 on Thomas while he can't lose more than 20 sec to Froome and more than 1:20 to Roglic.
We have three stages with downhill finishes left: Carcassone, Bagnéres-de-Luchon and Laruns. Tom is a great descender and he can try another attack in one of these descents but Froome is damn good too and Thomas is not bad either. I don't really think that he can win the race with a big attack downhill. Stage 15 and 16 are not that hard, I don't expect differences between the 4 leaders in those stages. Stage 19 could be a different story, but still not that big of a chance there. So the big chance for Tom is obviously Stage 17 with the Portet mountain top finish. Dumolin showed that he is in excellent form and is one of the best climbers in the peloton. Still, winning the time needed on such a hard stage after 2 and a half weeks of racing with the Giro already in his legs. I would love to be optimistic but I don't really see it happening.
In my opininon the only realistic way for Tom to win the Tour is Thomas cracking big time on stage 17 or 19. in that case all he needs to do is follow Froomey's wheel. Not that that is such an easy thing to do. Anyway, if this won't happen I still hope Tom won't crack and he can finish on the podium. That would be a super great result for him. He would be a big favourite to win next year even if he won't progress further which I very much doubt.
An interesting note: Geschke almost got within the TOP20 with his break today and with some luck he cen be in the TOP20 comes Stage 17 so maybe he can start from the same group as the leaders. Not that I think that has big importance but it wouldn't hurt for sure.