Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

[Samu Cuenca]

Leth and Dideriksen were not on the rr list, so could not be selected.
https://sport.tv2.dk/cykling/2021-07-16-danmark-tilbudt-ekstra-ol-plads-men-takker-nej
Maybe it was Fahlin’s spot they were offered, she has withdrawn due to poor form.

Since they were already selected for the Olympics for a different cycling event they would have been eligible.

https://www.uci.org/docs/default-source/official-documents/tokyo-2020---olympic-games/final---2020-05-11---tokyo-2020---revised-qualification-system---cycling-road---eng.pdf

 

[houtdffan]

Why is Van Aert even being considered for a win? He is not getting up a 6km climb at 10 percent unless he's in the breakaway as he was on Ventoux. He'll probably lose a couple of minutes on that climb

 

[Big Doopie]

Why is Van Aert even being considered for a win? He is not getting up a 6km climb at 10 percent unless he's in the breakaway as he was on Ventoux. He'll probably lose a couple of minutes on that climb

c’mon who else do the Belgians have!?

I mean we all know evenpoel can’t climb.

 

[Salvarani]

Why is Van Aert even being considered for a win? He is not getting up a 6km climb at 10 percent unless he's in the breakaway as he was on Ventoux. He'll probably lose a couple of minutes on that climb

He is most likely considered for a win because he is one of the best riders in the world. Good on any terrain.

It will most likely not be a race that is easy to control for anyone, anything is possible.

Van Aert has one of the biggest engines and is one of the best one-day racers in the world. He is great form atm.

There not just racing that 6km climb.

So, I wouldnt write him off. He is one of many that could win.

 

[DenisMenchov]

I'll give rating for chance of medal only:

**** * Slovenia, Italy, Belgium
**** Netherlands, Poland, Denmark, Spain
*** France, Switzerland, Russia, Portugal, Germany
** Canada, Ireland, Colombia,
* GBR, Australia, Ecuador

1. Pogačar
2. Caruso
3. Remco

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Looks like we are in for a cracker. Normally I would regard Pog & Rog as heavy favourites for the olympic title (given their climbing and explosivity) but the circumstances are not favourable for them. In case of Pogacar: tiredness after the Tour, time-zone change shortly before the race, hot weather in Japan. In case of Roglic: form after the crash. However, even if only one of them is in winning-form the other may still be helpful. My guess is that it's Roglic who's more likely to be in a very good form (I assume he's had enough time to recover, freshness is the key and he surely prepared a great form for the Tour). Other than them, obviously Evenepoel & Van Aert tandem is very dangerous. I'm very curious how Evenepoel performs there, he's surely capable of an impressive ride (maybe he'll try a solo breakaway?), he didn't do the Tour so should be fresh and he's peaking for this event. He's more likely (out of two Belgians) to fight for medals if the tempo on the last climb is very high. Van Aert (who will likely lose at least a minute on the last steep climb) will need a strong chase afterwards (he's capable of it given his form and TT skills), maybe Evenepoel will help him there (if he himself is not capapable of matching top climbers). There are some interesting scenarios possible. Other top climbers (like Carapaz) are more likely to win if they separate from all faster riders (which can be difficult). Obviously grandpa Valverde can't be overlooked - old but still fast and still can climb. A few months back I predicted Evenepoel's victory. Not sure whom to predict now, I'll need some time to think.

 

[RedheadDane]

They forgot their colours too? What the heck is going on? Does Southern Europe have a colour shortage?

 

[Boes]

Why is Van Aert even being considered for a win? He is not getting up a 6km climb at 10 percent unless he's in the breakaway as he was on Ventoux. He'll probably lose a couple of minutes on that climb

Well if the race was to finish on that climb, then yes. But there's another 30k after that climbs, so you kind of completely miss the point of the last 11 pages of this thread...
Obviously if the real climbers want to, they'll make a gap on the big climb, the question is; will they go for it with 30k's out and if they do, will they stay away?

If not, it'll be the classic riders that get the victory, like WVA or Bettiol.

 

[BlueRoads]

They forgot their colours too? What the heck is going on? Does Southern Europe have a colour shortage?

I think after having a discussion whether Slovenia is Eastern Europe we could have one now if France is Southern Europe... I mean, yes, for a Dane of course...

 

[Red Rick]

I think it's very likely the riders that did the Tour have a big, big advantage over those that didn't, but that those that didn't go all out probably have a slightly better time than those that did.

I think the final 40km are very similar to stage 18 of last years TdF. On Plateau de Glieres, Van Aert dropped 38s, and this time they won't be so hesitant to ride on without him behind him.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think it's very likely the riders that did the Tour have a big, big advantage over those that didn't, but that those that didn't go all out probably have a slightly better time than those that did.

I think the final 40km are very similar to stage 18 of last years TdF. On Plateau de Glieres, Van Aert dropped 38s, and this time they won't be so hesitant to ride on without him behind him.

The only disadvantage that comes with the Tour could be dealing with the Jetlag and heat + high humidity in a short timeframe. Those who skipped the Tour and came over a few days earlier should have an advantage in the RR (like Italy, they already departed on Saturday).

 

[BlueRoads]

Schachmann names Evenepoel as top favourite.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Schachmann names Evenepoel as top favourite.

He probably still has nightmares about Alto da Fóia.

 

[memyselfandI]

I'll give rating for chance of medal only:

I'll give them nice flight tickets back home as just heard from news that risk for cancellation of OG is very high. Just great.

 

[Dk one]

Since they were already selected for the Olympics for a different cycling event they would have been eligible.

https://www.uci.org/docs/default-source/official-documents/tokyo-2020---olympic-games/final---2020-05-11---tokyo-2020---revised-qualification-system---cycling-road---eng.pdf

Well, it would be typical of the Danish fed. to mess it up, just like when they got the offer last olympics and a young Uttrup Ludwig was ready to travel, but they said no.

 

[Amazinmets87]

So... Length and average gradient for the Mikuni and Kagosaka passes?

 

[Danskebjerge]

With these odds on Fuglsang, they must be thinking he's bluffing:

https://www.gamblingsites.org/blog/tokyo-olympics-cycling-road-race-odds-can-pogacar-win-the-gold-medal/

Lower odds than Gaudu, Lutsenko, Mollema, Konrad, Nibali ...

 

[jmdirt]

Sorry if this has already been said, but cyclists might be lucky to get their events out of the way this weekend before they/their team get SARS-CoV-2, or the whole things gets pulled.

 

[Cookster15]

Just as riders who do the Vuelta are usually in best form for the worlds, riders who just did the TdF should be in peak form for the Olympics.

But it sounds like this is going to be a moot point. Sadly it’s seems the games are about to be cancelled due to this scourge called Covid-19.

I feel sorry for the organisers and every athlete who prepared only to have this opportunity taken from them through no fault of their own.

 

[houtdffan]

May actually be a second reason that could derail the games

A likely typhoon in the vicinity. Latest model guidance is keeping it north of Tokyo, but the guidance has been all over the place with it this week

 

[Koronin]

Just as riders who do the Vuelta are usually in best form for the worlds, riders who just did the TdF should be in peak form for the Olympics.

But it sounds like this is going to be a moot point. Sadly it’s seems the games are about to be cancelled due to this scourge called Covid-19.

I feel sorry for the organisers and every athlete who prepared only to have this opportunity taken from them through no fault of their own.

If they pull/cancel the Olympics last second they need to be fully cancelled as in no rescheduling. They also need to put the host organizers on the hook for ALL expenses for ALL athletes who are already there. There should have been a date a month ago that should have been the final date in which they could cancel outside of something like a typhoon, hurricane or earthquake. I have zero sympathy at this point for the organizers. Because they didn't do this several months ago they can't just move them elsewhere. If these Olympics were taking place in the US they'd be going ahead with fans. Basically the organizers are saying F U to the athletes.

The NFL is planning to play with full capacity stadiums in the fall. The SEC has just announced that if a team doesn't have enough players to play due to not enough players vaccinated and thus a covid outbreak there won't be rescheduled games those games will be forfeited like NC State had to forfeit the college world series baseball game.

 

[BlueRoads]

Why do you guys think they get cancelled? I'm sure they won't. It's just someone saying they are not ruling it out... I'm pretty sure that is to avoid the already existing suspicion (after Bach's comments especially) that they will go through with it at all costs.

 

[dusty red roads]

Video of the RR route (apologies if already posted previously):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ri5VKDMx04o

 

[Pinot's goat]

Higuita and Valverde seem to fit the profile of riders who should go well since they did the TDF, ended in good form and did not go for GC. This is similar to the podium from Rio 2016 and also those who were in a good position before crashing like Nibali and Henao.

 

[Netserk]

Higuita and Valverde seem to fit the profile of riders who should go well since they did the TDF, ended in good form and did not go for GC. This is similar to the podium from Rio 2016 and also those who were in a good position before crashing like Nibali and Henao.

And Alaphilippe and Purito, iirc the two strongest from the peloton.

I think after having a discussion whether Slovenia is Eastern Europe we could have one now if France is Southern Europe... I mean, yes, for a Dane of course...

All countries with a Mediterranean coast suffer from the Southern Syndrome