Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

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Italians did a final recon of the route today.

Bettiol produced a nice effort on the Mikuni climb, taking the strava KOM with the time of 24:05, averaging 427W (~6W/kg).
For the reference, Nans Peters during the Tokyo Test Event in '19, where he placed 3rd, did this climb in 27:01.
 
Why is Van Aert even being considered for a win? He is not getting up a 6km climb at 10 percent unless he's in the breakaway as he was on Ventoux. He'll probably lose a couple of minutes on that climb
He is most likely considered for a win because he is one of the best riders in the world. Good on any terrain.

It will most likely not be a race that is easy to control for anyone, anything is possible.

Van Aert has one of the biggest engines and is one of the best one-day racers in the world. He is great form atm.

There not just racing that 6km climb.

So, I wouldnt write him off. He is one of many that could win.
 
Looks like we are in for a cracker. Normally I would regard Pog & Rog as heavy favourites for the olympic title (given their climbing and explosivity) but the circumstances are not favourable for them. In case of Pogacar: tiredness after the Tour, time-zone change shortly before the race, hot weather in Japan. In case of Roglic: form after the crash. However, even if only one of them is in winning-form the other may still be helpful. My guess is that it's Roglic who's more likely to be in a very good form (I assume he's had enough time to recover, freshness is the key and he surely prepared a great form for the Tour). Other than them, obviously Evenepoel & Van Aert tandem is very dangerous. I'm very curious how Evenepoel performs there, he's surely capable of an impressive ride (maybe he'll try a solo breakaway?), he didn't do the Tour so should be fresh and he's peaking for this event. He's more likely (out of two Belgians) to fight for medals if the tempo on the last climb is very high. Van Aert (who will likely lose at least a minute on the last steep climb) will need a strong chase afterwards (he's capable of it given his form and TT skills), maybe Evenepoel will help him there (if he himself is not capapable of matching top climbers). There are some interesting scenarios possible. Other top climbers (like Carapaz) are more likely to win if they separate from all faster riders (which can be difficult). Obviously grandpa Valverde can't be overlooked - old but still fast and still can climb. A few months back I predicted Evenepoel's victory. Not sure whom to predict now, I'll need some time to think.
 
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Why is Van Aert even being considered for a win? He is not getting up a 6km climb at 10 percent unless he's in the breakaway as he was on Ventoux. He'll probably lose a couple of minutes on that climb
Well if the race was to finish on that climb, then yes. But there's another 30k after that climbs, so you kind of completely miss the point of the last 11 pages of this thread...
Obviously if the real climbers want to, they'll make a gap on the big climb, the question is; will they go for it with 30k's out and if they do, will they stay away?

If not, it'll be the classic riders that get the victory, like WVA or Bettiol.
 
I think it's very likely the riders that did the Tour have a big, big advantage over those that didn't, but that those that didn't go all out probably have a slightly better time than those that did.

I think the final 40km are very similar to stage 18 of last years TdF. On Plateau de Glieres, Van Aert dropped 38s, and this time they won't be so hesitant to ride on without him behind him.
 
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I think it's very likely the riders that did the Tour have a big, big advantage over those that didn't, but that those that didn't go all out probably have a slightly better time than those that did.

I think the final 40km are very similar to stage 18 of last years TdF. On Plateau de Glieres, Van Aert dropped 38s, and this time they won't be so hesitant to ride on without him behind him.
The only disadvantage that comes with the Tour could be dealing with the Jetlag and heat + high humidity in a short timeframe. Those who skipped the Tour and came over a few days earlier should have an advantage in the RR (like Italy, they already departed on Saturday).
 
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Just as riders who do the Vuelta are usually in best form for the worlds, riders who just did the TdF should be in peak form for the Olympics.

But it sounds like this is going to be a moot point. Sadly it’s seems the games are about to be cancelled due to this scourge called Covid-19.

I feel sorry for the organisers and every athlete who prepared only to have this opportunity taken from them through no fault of their own.
 
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Just as riders who do the Vuelta are usually in best form for the worlds, riders who just did the TdF should be in peak form for the Olympics.

But it sounds like this is going to be a moot point. Sadly it’s seems the games are about to be cancelled due to this scourge called Covid-19.

I feel sorry for the organisers and every athlete who prepared only to have this opportunity taken from them through no fault of their own.

If they pull/cancel the Olympics last second they need to be fully cancelled as in no rescheduling. They also need to put the host organizers on the hook for ALL expenses for ALL athletes who are already there. There should have been a date a month ago that should have been the final date in which they could cancel outside of something like a typhoon, hurricane or earthquake. I have zero sympathy at this point for the organizers. Because they didn't do this several months ago they can't just move them elsewhere. If these Olympics were taking place in the US they'd be going ahead with fans. Basically the organizers are saying F U to the athletes.

The NFL is planning to play with full capacity stadiums in the fall. The SEC has just announced that if a team doesn't have enough players to play due to not enough players vaccinated and thus a covid outbreak there won't be rescheduled games those games will be forfeited like NC State had to forfeit the college world series baseball game.
 

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