Although
Pogacar should rule this if in best form I actually can't see him winning here. He's very ambitious, yes, but he just won the Tour. There will have been so much around him, then the short preparation and everything... he couldn't take it easy on some stages like the stage hunters, and the adrenaline, the absolute will to win this won't be there. 7/10
About
Roglic, everything will depend on how well he has healed. Just in general I don't think a really hard race suits him as well as some others, although the route profile is pretty perfect for him. 7/10
I don't think
Fuglsang will be resurrected here, not enough for a medal at least. That would be sudden and with the difficult conditions I can't see it happening. The best bet for him would be a surprising tactical situation he can take advantage of. 5/10
Valverde - I would not have thought this, but at this point he has to be considered one of the top, top favourites. He was in good form this season again, he can deal with heat, he didn't have to go all out in the Tour, he's healthy, the profile is absolutely perfect for him, he still packs a good sprint and he has a team that looks one of the best for this route. The only thing against him on paper is when van Aert doesn't get distanced enough on the Mikuni Pass and out-time-trials or outsprints him afterwards. 9/10
Schachmann: He gave up the Tour for this, with permission of his team, although there were many stages in the Tour that would have suited him well, so I think he put everything in for this. I don't see how he could outsprint van Aert, but other than that I imagine him to be a good candidate for a medal, since the route does suit him and he has been in Japan for longer than most. Of course he won't have the strongest team, so tactics might also be against him. 8/10
Then there's
Higuita, who didn't shine this season, but occasionally he has looked pretty good in the Tour nonetheless. He can climb a bit, he's punchy, he's a good descender and maybe I'm totally wrong, but I imagine the climate to be not so bad for a Colombian. His team ain't bad, either. 7/10
Dan
Martin and Michael
Woods should be really good here on paper but I can't get over the fact that both have looked out of depths at times during the Tour. Depends on how much they held back in order to be good for the games and how much they really couldn't do better. 6/10
Lutsenko should be tired after this Tour. 4/10
Adam Yates: The surprise package, no idea in which form he is. I can see him get beaten in a sprint by a few, though. 6/10
Simon Yates: Still broken, I suppose? 3/10
Evenepoel: If he's in good form I'm giving him many stars for the time trial, but here the only way to win would be when others sit back with him when van Aert attacks. But why would van Aert attack? With his sprint he has no reason to and after his Tour I doubt he's below Remco in the Belgian hierarchy. 4/10
Gaudu: Looked better and better towards the last stages, if he didn't give everything in those days he's a good bet for a medal in my eyes, also a really good team, although I don't know what Cosnefroy (who I really like, as you might know) is doing there. 7/10
Mollema: No, nobody will allow you to go solo with 20k to go this time, Bauke

6/10
Kwiatkowski: There's no rider I would wish to win more. He wasn't at his imperious best in the Tour, but climbed well and he's a smart rider. Unfortunately what he said sounded like he will work for Majka again - unfortunately because he already did that the last time. I don't think he'll be on the podium, but I still hope it all works out for him somehow. 4/10
Almeida has a chance for a good result. 3/10
Konrad as well and he won't focus on the time trial. 4/10
Naravaez and
Carapaz: Actually a cool duo for a race like this, interesting to see how it will go for them. Too much climbing for Narvaez though, Carapaz too tired. 4/10
Gino
Mäder: Didn't he already have his revenge on Roglic? 3/10
Van Aert: We all know by now there's nothing this man can't do. Will the climbers drop him? I have no idea. Belgium as a team, tactically, was disappointing in the last WCs, but they have produced the current Olympic champion, so it's impossible to say they aren't able to do this. His focus should be on the time trial, but then again, what does Wout need a focus for? 8/10
Italian additions:
Ciccone is my best Italian bet because he's willing to take chances, which could be the key to beat some favourites. 6/10
Bettiol: After his impressive win in the Giro he can't be overlooked. Uhm.

But he won't get away on his own, I'm sure. 5/10
Moscon: Good bet for a good place, but somehow I don't see him winning. Maybe that's because despite his good WC placings I'm just unable to see him as a true one-day racer. Or maybe I just don't want to see an Olympic champion in him. 5/10
I would never dare to not mention
Nibali here, but I haven't seen anything from him this season that would make me count him among the favourites. 2/10