Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

[Samu Cuenca]

Guys, in Rio, how many of the top 10 did not do the Tour beforehand?

Only Zeits in 8th place.

 

[Bonimenier]

Guys, in Rio, how many of the top 10 did not do the Tour beforehand?

Actually it looks like Zeits was the only one in the top 20 not coming off the Tour.

Olympics were 2 weeks after the Tour in 2016 though. In general it's also easier to adapt to jetlag moving west than it is moving east.

 

[Red Rick]

Olympics were 2 weeks after the Tour in 2016 though. In general it's also easier to adapt to jetlag moving west than it is moving east.

I think 1 week difference is better for Tour riders cause you kinda only need to recover and you don't even need to extend your form much.

The 2020 Worlds was dominated by TdF riders, and and the non TdF riders even had a perfect prep race in the form of Tirreno.

 

[Bonimenier]

I think 1 week difference is better for Tour riders cause you kinda only need to recover and you don't even need to extend your form much.

The 2020 Worlds was dominated by TdF riders, and and the non TdF riders even had a perfect prep race in the form of Tirreno.

I agree that formwise it should be easier for TdF riders to be in good/perfect shape. That's also not what I would worry about as a TdF rider. I'd worry more about the 7 hour time and weather difference.

 

[BlueRoads]

Although Pogacar should rule this if in best form I actually can't see him winning here. He's very ambitious, yes, but he just won the Tour. There will have been so much around him, then the short preparation and everything... he couldn't take it easy on some stages like the stage hunters, and the adrenaline, the absolute will to win this won't be there. 7/10

About Roglic, everything will depend on how well he has healed. Just in general I don't think a really hard race suits him as well as some others, although the route profile is pretty perfect for him. 7/10

I don't think Fuglsang will be resurrected here, not enough for a medal at least. That would be sudden and with the difficult conditions I can't see it happening. The best bet for him would be a surprising tactical situation he can take advantage of. 5/10

Valverde - I would not have thought this, but at this point he has to be considered one of the top, top favourites. He was in good form this season again, he can deal with heat, he didn't have to go all out in the Tour, he's healthy, the profile is absolutely perfect for him, he still packs a good sprint and he has a team that looks one of the best for this route. The only thing against him on paper is when van Aert doesn't get distanced enough on the Mikuni Pass and out-time-trials or outsprints him afterwards. 9/10

Schachmann: He gave up the Tour for this, with permission of his team, although there were many stages in the Tour that would have suited him well, so I think he put everything in for this. I don't see how he could outsprint van Aert, but other than that I imagine him to be a good candidate for a medal, since the route does suit him and he has been in Japan for longer than most. Of course he won't have the strongest team, so tactics might also be against him. 8/10

Then there's Higuita, who didn't shine this season, but occasionally he has looked pretty good in the Tour nonetheless. He can climb a bit, he's punchy, he's a good descender and maybe I'm totally wrong, but I imagine the climate to be not so bad for a Colombian. His team ain't bad, either. 7/10

Dan Martin and Michael Woods should be really good here on paper but I can't get over the fact that both have looked out of depths at times during the Tour. Depends on how much they held back in order to be good for the games and how much they really couldn't do better. 6/10

Lutsenko should be tired after this Tour. 4/10

Adam Yates: The surprise package, no idea in which form he is. I can see him get beaten in a sprint by a few, though. 6/10
Simon Yates: Still broken, I suppose? 3/10

Evenepoel: If he's in good form I'm giving him many stars for the time trial, but here the only way to win would be when others sit back with him when van Aert attacks. But why would van Aert attack? With his sprint he has no reason to and after his Tour I doubt he's below Remco in the Belgian hierarchy. 4/10

Gaudu: Looked better and better towards the last stages, if he didn't give everything in those days he's a good bet for a medal in my eyes, also a really good team, although I don't know what Cosnefroy (who I really like, as you might know) is doing there. 7/10

Mollema: No, nobody will allow you to go solo with 20k to go this time, Bauke 6/10

Kwiatkowski: There's no rider I would wish to win more. He wasn't at his imperious best in the Tour, but climbed well and he's a smart rider. Unfortunately what he said sounded like he will work for Majka again - unfortunately because he already did that the last time. I don't think he'll be on the podium, but I still hope it all works out for him somehow. 4/10

Almeida has a chance for a good result. 3/10

Konrad as well and he won't focus on the time trial. 4/10

Naravaez and Carapaz: Actually a cool duo for a race like this, interesting to see how it will go for them. Too much climbing for Narvaez though, Carapaz too tired. 4/10

Gino Mäder: Didn't he already have his revenge on Roglic? 3/10

Van Aert: We all know by now there's nothing this man can't do. Will the climbers drop him? I have no idea. Belgium as a team, tactically, was disappointing in the last WCs, but they have produced the current Olympic champion, so it's impossible to say they aren't able to do this. His focus should be on the time trial, but then again, what does Wout need a focus for? 8/10


Italian additions:

Ciccone is my best Italian bet because he's willing to take chances, which could be the key to beat some favourites. 6/10

Bettiol: After his impressive win in the Giro he can't be overlooked. Uhm. But he won't get away on his own, I'm sure. 5/10

Moscon: Good bet for a good place, but somehow I don't see him winning. Maybe that's because despite his good WC placings I'm just unable to see him as a true one-day racer. Or maybe I just don't want to see an Olympic champion in him. 5/10

I would never dare to not mention Nibali here, but I haven't seen anything from him this season that would make me count him among the favourites. 2/10

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Olympics were 2 weeks after the Tour in 2016 though. In general it's also easier to adapt to jetlag moving west than it is moving east.

Are you saying it would be better to take a longer, westbound flight to Tokyo?

 

[RedheadDane]

(I suppose this might fit better in the "Kits Thread", but ehh... couldn't find it...)

Guys! You forgot to put colour on your kit...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417410755914354716

Also weird to see Elissonde looking normally-sized. I'm so used to thinking of him as basically a midget, due to seeing him next to guys like Pedersen and Stuyven. Of course, Gaudu isn't exactly known for being a giant either...

 

[BlueRoads]

(I suppose this might fit better in the "Kits Thread", but ehh... couldn't find it...)

Guys! You forgot to put colour on your kit...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417410755914354716

Also weird to see Elissonde looking normally-sized. I'm so used to thinking of him as basically a midget, due to seeing him next to guys like Pedersen and Stuyven. Of course, Gaudu isn't exactly known for being a giant either...

You're right, this is a small team. Martin actually looks tall here.

The kit is ugly and looks like FDJ, is this the one they are going to race in? Why didn't they stick to the dark-blue they lately had, I really liked that.

 

[SafeBet]

Pogacar
Roglic, Van Aert
Schachmann, Valverde, A. Yates, Moscon
Evenepoel, Almeida, Mollema, Carapaz, Lutsenko, Gaudu
Bettiol, Higuita, Woods, Fuglsang, Nibali, Hirschi, Kwiatkowski, Konrad, S. Yates

Joker: Omar Fraile

 

[BlueRoads]

Pogacar
Roglic, Van Aert
Schachmann, Valverde, A. Yates, Moscon
Evenepoel, Almeida, Mollema, Carapaz, Lutsenko, Gaudu
Bettiol, Higuita, Woods, Fuglsang, Nibali, Hirschi, Kwiatkowski, Konrad, S. Yates

Joker: Omar Fraile

You make me realize I overlooked the whole Italian team.

 

[SafeBet]

You make me realize I overlooked the whole Italian team.

Hopefully you're not the only one.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

(I suppose this might fit better in the "Kits Thread", but ehh... couldn't find it...)

Guys! You forgot to put colour on your kit...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417410755914354716

Also weird to see Elissonde looking normally-sized. I'm so used to thinking of him as basically a midget, due to seeing him next to guys like Pedersen and Stuyven. Of course, Gaudu isn't exactly known for being a giant either...

Maybe you should have posted it in the "Kids Thread"?

Voeckler seems smaller than Elissonde here, and he's supposed to be 5 cm taller.
Martin also looks taller than Cosnefroy. It's clearly optical illusions



These guys make it hard to play a game of "Guess Who?"

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CRe5AlKHlAq/

 

[BlueRoads]

Maybe you should have posted it in the "Kids Thread"?

Voeckler seems smaller than Elissonde here, and he's supposed to be 5 cm taller.
Martin also looks taller than Cosnefroy. It's clearly optical illusions



These guys make it hard to play a game of "Guess Who?"

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CRe5AlKHlAq/

That's a weird way of scouting your national team: "Do you wear glasses? No? Well, okay, stay at home." What about Kenny, though?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Cavagna doesn't wear glasses off the bike either, so perhaps the shortest and the tallest don't have to?
Now we know the real reason for Ala staying at home.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

That's a weird way of scouting your national team: "Do you wear glasses? No? Well, okay, stay at home." What about Kenny, though?

Cavagna doesn't wear glasses off the bike either, so perhaps the shortest and the tallest don't have to?
Now we know the real reason for Ala staying at home.

 

[Dk one]

Vamos Cille and Norsgaard! Some of the more talented riders in the women peloton with my limited knowledge!

Indeed, quite the mini team! Denmark was offered a third spot very recently, but could only choose a rider from the 1.5 year old olympic pre nom. list, and no one on that list are still active/fit the course/ in form, according to the Danish fed so they said no. There were riders outside the list they wanted to nominate but were not allowed to. Lesson must be,, longer list next time!

 

[RedheadDane]

The kit is ugly and looks like FDJ, is this the one they are going to race in? Why didn't they stick to the dark-blue they lately had, I really liked that.

That was my thought too. It's basically FDJ... without the colours.

 

[SafeBet]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417445673293783043

View: https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1417445673293783043?s=20

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Indeed, quite the mini team! Denmark was offered a third spot very recently, but could only choose a rider from the 1.5 year old olympic pre nom. list, and no one on that list are still active/fit the course/ in form, according to the Danish fed so they said no. There were riders outside the list they wanted to nominate but were not allowed to. Lesson must be,, longer list next time!

Hopefully the next Olympics will take place as originally scheduled, so it won't be a problem. But they could still have given the spot to Dideriksen or Leth, who don't have to ride on the track until a week after the RR. Maybe not the ideal preparation for them, but it could be done.

At least it's better than in Rio, where they weren't any Danish women in the peloton, because the only Great Dane was a Kiwi.

 

[Red Rick]

"let's host the Olympics to show off how great we're doing"

 

[ice&fire]

So... if they cancel, do they reschedule next year or do we have Nibali and Valverde riding until 2024?

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

So... if they cancel, do they reschedule next year or do we have Nibali and Valverde riding until 2024?

Worst part is that we will be forced to consider Valverde a favorite even in 2024.

 

[Dk one]

Hopefully the next Olympics will take place as originally scheduled, so it won't be a problem. But they could still have given the spot to Dideriksen or Leth, who don't have to ride on the track until a week after the RR. Maybe not the ideal preparation for them, but it could be done.

At least it's better than in Rio, where they weren't any Danish women in the peloton, because the only Great Dane was a Kiwi.

Leth and Dideriksen were not on the rr list, so could not be selected.
https://sport.tv2.dk/cykling/2021-07-16-danmark-tilbudt-ekstra-ol-plads-men-takker-nej
Maybe it was Fahlin’s spot they were offered, she has withdrawn due to poor form.

 

[dusty red roads]

Can't see it being cancelled. Bach is in town, after all and he calls the shots!

 

[limak_]

Finale di Gara | Strava

View Alberto Bettiol's ride on July 20, 2021 | Strava

www.strava.com

Italians did a final recon of the route today.

Bettiol produced a nice effort on the Mikuni climb, taking the strava KOM with the time of 24:05, averaging 427W (~6W/kg).
For the reference, Nans Peters during the Tokyo Test Event in '19, where he placed 3rd, did this climb in 27:01.