Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

[SafeBet]

Who's the leader, or the most likely medalist, of the Italian team?

I don't think they're going in with a leader. Flexible approach, try to be in every meaningful move and let the road decide.

The most likely medalist to me is Moscon.

 

[Blanco]

Two questions for Saturday:

Who's the leader, or the most likely medalist, of the Italian team?

If Roglic and Pogacar are both in the leading group after the climb, and Van Aert is in the chasing group, is Roglic going to work?

Of course he will, unless he wants to move from Slovenia

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Would I be mad doing an each way on Mollema?

 

[SafeBet]

Would I be mad doing an each way on Mollema?

I like his chances. His shape looked on the rise during TDF and he's very good at reading races.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I don't think they're going in with a leader. Flexible approach, try to be in every meaningful move and let the road decide.

The most likely medalist to me is Moscon.

Yeah, Moscon is the most solid pick, when Cassani has taken him to a WC he was always up there. Bettiol would need to have one of his magic days.

 

[Pantani_lives]

It will be 32°C in Tokyo, ideal weather for watermelons.

Pogacar, Van Aert

Roglic, Carapaz

S. Yates, Valverde, Mollema

Bettiol, Vlasov, Lutsenko, Hirschi, Schachmann

Nibali, Moscon, Fuglsang, Woods, Almeida, Evenepoel, A. Yates, Porte, Majka, Gaudu

The first four are rather obvious, but after that there are lots of names who might do well - or not play any role at all.

 

[GuntherL1]

However impressive Van Aerts performances were in the TdF, I don't see him as a 5 melon favourite. I still expect him to be dropped on the Mikuni pass, because that's where the race has to come alive. He can win due to tactical errors by opponents though.

 

[Vesica]

It will be 32°C in Tokyo, ideal weather for watermelons.

Pogacar, Van Aert

Roglic, Carapaz

S. Yates, Valverde, Mollema

Bettiol, Vlasov, Lutsenko, Hirschi, Schachmann

Nibali, Moscon, Fuglsang, Woods, Almeida, Evenepoel, A. Yates, Porte, Majka, Gaudu

The first four are rather obvious, but after that there are lots of names who might do well - or not play any role at all.

I think Carapaz is not very obvious. His results in one-day-races are far from being named a favourite in Tokyo. His best (recent) result in a one-day-race is a 2nd place in GP Industria 2017 and a 9th in Flèche Wallonne this year.

 

[Vesica]

I'll go with countries as the favourites (+names)
Slovenia (Pog + Rog) vs. Belgium (WvA + Evenepoel)

Valverde, Moscon, Mollema
Schachmann, Martin (Dan), Woods
Bennett, Kwiatkowski, Stybar

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Scenario's in which i see van Aert win are few. I can see him take a medal from a chasing group. Hopefully the length of the race plays to his favor, but if a true climber is having his day, then that 'll be that.

 

[Bonimenier]

The one thing van Aert has going for him is that in contrary to other 1 day races the 3 first places count so riders will have more incentive to work with him in a chase.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

I like his chances. His shape looked on the rise during TDF and he's very good at reading races.

That’s what I was thinking yet the bookies are offering 50/1 or 12/1 for a medal.
Also, he doesn’t have to deal with Trek tactics.

 

[Red Rick]

Scenario's in which i see van Aert win are few. I can see him take a medal from a chasing group. Hopefully the length of the race plays to his favor, but if a true climber is having his day, then that 'll be that.

Tbh the most similar race profile to Tokyo is stage 18 of the last TdF where he came back to beat the GC guys for 3rd.

The big question is simply how big gaps are gonna be on Mikuni pass.

 

[spalco]

That’s what I was thinking yet the bookies are offering 50/1 or 12/1 for a medal.
Also, he doesn’t have to deal with Trek tactics.

I would expect the odds for the Olympic road race to be skewed by non-cycling fans betting on big name riders without fully understanding the sport.

I don't think Pogacar and Roglic will be a big factor. This isn't LBL and Mikuni pass isn't the Ventoux. And I also don't think Evenepoel will win a medal unless he trained hard at descending (which I doubt).

For me, Van Aert is the lone top favourite, but many others have a chance too, whether it's Mollema, Fuglsang, Kwiatkowsi, Yates-s, etc.

Scenario's in which i see van Aert win are few. I can see him take a medal from a chasing group. Hopefully the length of the race plays to his favor, but if a true climber is having his day, then that 'll be that.

Easy: He sticks with the selection on Mikuni and wins the sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

I would expect the odds for the Olympic road race to be skewed by non-cycling fans betting on big name riders without fully understanding the sport.

I don't think Pogacar and Roglic will be a big factor. This isn't LBL and Mikuni pass isn't the Ventoux. And I also don't think Evenepoel will win a medal unless he trained hard at descending (which I doubt).

For me, Van Aert is the lone top favourite, but many others have a chance too, whether it's Mollema, Fuglsang, Kwiatkowsi, Yates-s, etc.



Easy: He sticks with the selection on Mikuni and wins the sprint.

Uh, isn't the descent like 4% average?

There is no doubt that Mikuni pass favors pure climbers much more than any hill in LBL. I think whether the race is controlled enough up until that point is the much bigger question.

 

[gregrowlerson]

For the biggest underdog in the men's road race, I don't mind Jan Tratnik, since everyone will be watching his teammates, plus he's not too bad a climber and maybe doing Giro rather than Tour will benefit riders.

As a mid range favourite I like Adam Yates; he's fresh, and has shown great form earlier in the season.

Of the main favourites I'd pick WVA.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't see any real reason how Slovenia doesn't just ride to get Roglic and Pogacar to Mikuni and let the road decide?

Meanwhile I wonder if Evenepoel will attack before Mikuni.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Easy: He sticks with the selection on Mikuni and wins the sprint.

Good variation on "crossing the finishline first".

 

[will-10]

Really excited for this one. Mikuni is more than hard enough that the final will start long before then with small teams.

 

[limak_]

The one thing van Aert has going for him is that in contrary to other 1 day races the 3 first places count so riders will have more incentive to work with him in a chase.

Exactly, just like in Rio - Fuglsang working with (for) GvA.

Also I expect quite similar scenario to Rio - a group of the best climbers in the race (Pogacar, Roglic, Woods(?), Carapaz(?)) going clear on Mikuni with van Aert and others left behind and trying to catch them afterwards.

At this point, we can't forget about the presence of Evenepoel. He'll probably try to follow any moves on the last climb from the mentioned riders (I expect his climbing form to be very well - he was already able to follow Bernal at the beginning of the Giro, he's fresh and has been in Japan for longer than guys coming from the Tour, which is also his advantage).
If he manages to do so, let's assume we have Remco together with Pogacar, Roglic and Woods at the front. In that case, with his sprinting abilities, and if they all come together to the finish, the best he could do is taking 3rd.

So if the advantage of the first group on the top of Mikuni is not that big (let's say less than 40-50s), it could be beneficial for Belgians to put evertything on van Aert, make Remco stay with him, so they can work together (with one other guy like maybe Kwiato or Moscon), catch the break and win the race with van Aert. The problem is, most of the kms after the top of the last climb is a descent + I don't think Evenepoel&WvA have that much of an advantage over Pog&Rog on that last downhill/flat section + it's probably impossible to make Remco wait for WvA if he's at the front (do we have radios?).

Apart from that, as an analogy to Rio, I expect the climate conditions to have a strong impact on the race with some of the top favuorites (like Pogacar maybe) being unexpectedly dropped quite early.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Exactly, just like in Rio - Fuglsang working with (for) GvA.

To be fair to Fuglsang, he would probably have done the same in other races back then, too, considering how his career was going at the time.
Also if he hadn't worked with GVA, his chances of winning the gold would most likely have been even worse. Taking the front inside the final kilometer was obviously the wrong choice, but I doubt it had any impact on the final outcome.

But I do agree that many riders would settle for a medal, even if it means it'll be harder/impossible for them to win.

 

[hayneplane]

Rio was great and this looks like an even tougher course in conditions just as energy sapping with small teams leading to different tactical shenanigans than regular big classics. Should be fabulous and so many different factors at play like race tuned from TDF or tired vs rested from Giro/early season and acclimatised to Japan or rusty from low volume of racing in last 6 weeks.

 

[Boes]

Remco to attack on decent of the Mukini and to solo to victory.
WVA to hold the weel of pogacar on the climbs only to be beaten by him in the sprint for 2nd place.

Wouldn't that be something else.

 

[Red Rick]

Guys, in Rio, how many of the top 10 did not do the Tour beforehand?

Actually it looks like Zeits was the only one in the top 20 not coming off the Tour.

 

[Bonimenier]

Remco to attack on decent

That's a good one.