Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

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Probably more remarkable is that it is the first time outside a national championship that van Aert and Evenepoel are riding the same race. On the 2 previous occasions van Aert won while Evenepoel finished 3rd. I'm guessing the Belgian team could live with the same result.
IMO they should have selected Teuns as well.

Evenepoel and Van Aert only have an outside chance in the road race IMO. They have never performed with the best on a climb as hard as Mikuni Pass IIRC.

Would have been better to have a third option to play with.
 
They'll climb it in ~22' I guess? I think he'll do it less than a minute slower than the fastest rider there, maybe as close as 30'' at the top. Given his sprint and the finish, I have him as the top favourite too. I mean, I can just as easily imagine a plausible scenario where he wins as one where Valverde wins, who's the other main favourite. I think it's difficult to judge the Slovenians as both crash and winning the Tour is less than ideal preparation. If it was a week later, Pogi would be my number one favourite.
 
I would love WvA to win but I think Mikuni is just too steep for him. Nobody would want to drag him and there are teams with 2 leaders who can afford one to go into attack. Mikuni is placed in a good position to drop any guys with a decent sprint that can climb decently.
Sure he beat Elissonde on Ventoux but the field is just much stronger..
Pogacar with his TdF form would smoke everyone normally but I have my doubts regarding his national performances... :rolleyes:
 
IMO they should have selected Teuns as well.

Evenepoel and Van Aert only have an outside chance in the road race IMO. They have never performed with the best on a climb as hard as Mikuni Pass IIRC.

Would have been better to have a third option to play with.
It's steep, but it's also 34 km from the finish. It won't necessarily be the best climber who wins the race.
 
What's the reason Mohoric is not riding in Tokyo?
I guess it must be the incredible stupidity of the National coach! I can't find any other reason...
Is it a Bahrain thing? No Mohoric, no Teuns, no Padun, no Poels, no Bilbao, no Colbrelli - although Caruso is going.
No it's not. It's just as much Mohorič's decision. He has ridden both Giro and Tour and he needs time off. He doesn't think the route is suitable enough to him, so it would be too much to go there strictly as a domestique. Polanc and Tratnik should do a good enough job at that.

On the other hand Mohorič sees the WC RR as a bigger opportunity, so I expect him to take some time to recover after the Tour and then start building form towards the Worlds.
 
S.Yates has been in Tokyo since Monday - Weather will have an impact on their results and lack of race days - A.Yates should be the leader but he hasn't raced since LBL and he can struggle in the heat - S.Yates is good in hot weather but has no one day pedigree and may have trouble with the distance.
 
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bNator mentioned the betting odds for the ITT in another thread. Looks like WVA, Roglic, Evenepoel, Dennis, Ganna are the bookies' favorites to win. In that order (Betfair)

Followed by Almeida, Dumoulin and Asgreen. With Cavagna and McNulty further behind.

Küng not even in the top-10 on Betfair.


I think Ganna, Evenepoel, Van Aert , Dennis and Dumoulin will duke it out. What do you all think?
 
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bNator mentioned the betting odds for the ITT in another thread. Looks like WVA, Roglic, Evenepoel, Dennis, Ganna are the bookies' favorites to win. In that order (Betfair)

Followed by Almeida, Dumoulin and Asgreen. With Cavagna and McNulty further behind.

Küng not even in the top-10 on Betfair.


I think Ganna, Evenepoel, Van Aert , Dennis and Dumoulin will duke it out. What do you all think?
I find it almost impossible to say what effect the Tour / the short time between/ the jet-lag will have. Will the guys who went to the Tour have a huge disadvantage or will they have an advantage after all with the hard racing in their legs?
And then apart from the adapting, who will deal best with hot, humid conditions?
Then there's the fact that we haven't seen some of these guys racing for a while, who knows for instance if Dennis is just not on that level of last year's fall anymore, or if he simply put everything into the Olympic's basket and is now in top form?
In general I think van Aert should be the favourite, obviously in form now and the route suits him well. But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets surpassed by someone who peaked for this and only this race and had the best preparation - someone like Dennis.
 
Ganna, Van Aert, and Roglič. I don't see anyone else winning gold, but Evenepoel is more likely to medal than Roglič. But really, the first two are difficult to look past. Ganna will be fresh (not even riding the RR), but maybe too heavy (esp. with track in mind), while Van Aert seems to have found top form just in time, but may be too tired (after the RR).
 

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