Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

[Krzysztof_O]

Roglič in Pogačar to go solo on the Mikuno pass and finish together Kwiato/Carapaz style. And this time they would actualy work together not just look at eachother.

Yes, the road race favour Pog&Rog so much. They even don't need to drop everyone on Mikuno as they will easily outplay climbers at the finish from a small group. The only question is their form: crash influence (Rog) and tiredness (Pog).

 

[Valanga]

Yes, the road race favour Pog&Rog so much. They even don't need to drop everyone on Mikuno as they will easily outplay climbers at the finish from a small group. The only question is their form: crash influence (Rog) and tiredness (Pog).

Agreed, they pretty much only need to get rid of Van Aert I'd say. All other (semi-)favorites are manageable in the sprint.
And that should be no problem on the Mikuni pass.

 

[Vesica]

Why on earth is Kelderman selected for the Dutchies? He got no experience in one-day races, he's not well known for domestic duties and will most likely crash anyway. I can think of Poels, Gesink (i know he's injured, but was not selected), Schelling..

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Agreed, they pretty much only need to get rid of Van Aert I'd say. All other (semi-)favorites are manageable in the sprint.
And that should be no problem on the Mikuni pass.

If the Slovenians are in at least decent form they will easily drop Van Aert on that 7 km long muro. Wout is great but come on, it's not their climbing level. And he (or others) will have problems with chasing them down afterwards if they cooperate well (they are great TT-ists as well).

 

[Netserk]

The climb is similar to Glières and with a similar distance to the finish (as stage 18 in 2020), but with no proper descent afterwards I don't think they can afford to hesitate if they want to keep him at bay.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I have added startlists, or rather links to them, to the OP.

For the women's RR some teams have been offered additional spots. Denmark turned down the opportunity to get a third rider, because their submitted long/shortlist from 2019/20 was now out of date and didn't feature any suited candidates.

The Poles didn't have the same problem, so Niewiadoma now has an extra helper in Marta Lach, and Alison Jackson will also represent Canada.

 

[yaco]

Dennis is a lock for a podium in the ITT.

 

[Bonimenier]

If he's not comfortable with it, then who of the time trialers could be?

He said that it should fit GC riders with a good TT more. Mentioned Evenepoel (well, the interviewer did) and Roglic as riders who it should fit better.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Dennis is a lock for a podium in the ITT.

While i asume his chances are good to be on the podium, it's not a done deal at all.
Evenepoel, van Aert, Dumoulin (?), Roglic should all be an equal or better match for this course. I'm not putting a lot of stock in Ganna, even less in Küng, but they can't be overlooked either.

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic, Evenepoel, Almeida, Dumoulin?

But yeah, after what he did on Ventoux it's hard to argue against Wout.

Tbh if it's a 50kph TT then you don't pick Van Aert over Ganna anyway.

 

[Bonimenier]

Tbh if it's a 50kph TT then you don't pick Van Aert over Ganna anyway.

Unless it is Tirreno-Adriatico

 

[Valv.Piti]

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Vamos Cille and Norsgaard! Some of the more talented riders in the women peloton with my limited knowledge!

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Van Aert says it's not well suited for him, because it has more than 700 meters of altitude, but although that is actually more than the second ITT in Tour de Suisse had for instance, it's not as hard (though it is also longer, of course). He also finished fourth on La Planche des Belles Filles last year, and he won't face Pogacar here, so I think it's a weak argument in itself. He might not be the top favourite, but he can definitely win a medal.

Speaking of that TdS ITT, I see that Mäder has been given the second Suisse spot. It'll be interesting to see if he can also outdo Küng on a course like this, if he's still in good shape.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Tbh if it's a 50kph TT then you don't pick Van Aert over Ganna anyway.

At the WCC Ganna had been preparing for weeks/months, while van Aert was towing Roglic all over France, and he beat him with one of the smallest margins of past editions.
Regardless, with these uphill sections, i don't see Ganna as the big favorite here.

 

[Red Rick]

At the WCC Ganna had been preparing for weeks/months, while van Aert was towing Roglic all over France, and he beat him with one of the smallest margins of past editions.
Regardless, with these uphill sections, i don't see Ganna as the big favorite here.

It was about half the duration of 2018 and 2019. And do we really wanna pretend Van Aert was in poor shape?

I'm pretty sure most of the riders who did well at the road race were coming off the Tour.

 

[SafeBet]

It was about half the duration of 2018 and 2019. And do we really wanna pretend Van Aert was in poor shape?

I'm pretty sure most of the riders who did well at the road race were coming off the Tour.

8 out of the top10 if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It was about half the duration of 2018 and 2019. And do we really wanna pretend Van Aert was in poor shape?

I'm pretty sure most of the riders who did well at the road race were coming off the Tour.

Pretend what you will, there is a huge difference between "riding the Tour", and busting your balls for 3 weeks, every day. When Roglic won the 2019 Vuelta, was he in poor shape? Because he got absolutely blown away on the WCC ITT. There is something called fatigue.

It was shorter than previous editions so it should have suited Ganna more in comparison. Just looking at s/km it was still a relatively small gap compared to other recent editions.

8 out of the top10 if I'm not mistaken.

But the winner did not ride a great Tour and didn't go all out every day. In fact, he wasn't considered the biggest favorite despite the course having his name written all over it, based on his Tour.

 

[cen]

WvA is in peak form after TdF, clean slate.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Two questions for Saturday:

Who's the leader, or the most likely medalist, of the Italian team?

If Roglic and Pogacar are both in the leading group after the climb, and Van Aert is in the chasing group, is Roglic going to work?

 

[Asero831]

will there be race radios?

 

[Monte Serra]

Two questions for Saturday:

Who's the leader, or the most likely medalist, of the Italian team?

If Roglic and Pogacar are both in the leading group after the climb, and Van Aert is in the chasing group, is Roglic going to work?

Why shouldn't Roglič work with Pogačar? It would be pretty odd if he willingly lets Van Aert come back to the race lead in such a situation.

 

[topcat]

Two questions for Saturday:

Who's the leader, or the most likely medalist, of the Italian team?

If Roglic and Pogacar are both in the leading group after the climb, and Van Aert is in the chasing group, is Roglic going to work?

Bettiol. (I still have the unrealistic hope that Nibali can do something.)
Roglic will not help Wout but it probably won't come to that (although another Belgian *** storm would be funny).

 

[Anderis]

Why on earth is Kelderman selected for the Dutchies?

Kelderman?

I'm puzzled 438534897 times more by Yoeri Havik. Who the hell is he?

 

[Bonimenier]

Kelderman?

I'm puzzled 438534897 times more by Yoeri Havik. Who the hell is he?

Track cyclist. IOC wants to limit the amount of athletes participating. That's why the Netherlands can only bring 4 "real" road cyclists. Also the reason that the riders doing the TT, have to do the road race as well. Exception being Ganna because he also participates on the track.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Kelderman?

I'm puzzled 438534897 times more by Yoeri Havik. Who the hell is he?

They wanted to give the spot to a track rider, so the federation is allowed to bring an extra sprinter for the track, and Van Schip said no, so Havik took the spot instead.