Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

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Regarding Pog's bike:

I notice it still has the UAE logo on it, and things like wheels etc. have big logos.

AFAIK, bikes used in the Olympics should be as logo-free as possible, and only one time (on the downtube) can the name of the frame brand be shown (like Roglic' bike)?

About the parcours and the favourites; I honestly don't see anyone beating the Slovenians. Any rider with more than 6W/kg on that climb and a good sprint has the best chance to win just by virtue of skills matching the parcours, so I don't see WvA (lower W/kg) or Evenepoel (no sprint) as favourites. If the race is more tactical, Belgium could have a chance, but they are the clear underdog.
 
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Regarding Pog's bike:

I notice it still has the UAE logo on it, and things like wheels etc. have big logos.

AFAIK, bikes used in the Olympics should be as logo-free as possible, and only one time (on the downtube) can the name of the frame brand be shown (like Roglic' bike)?

About the parcours and the favourites; I honestly don't see anyone beating the Slovenians. Any rider with more than 6W/kg on that climb and a good sprint has the best chance to win just by virtue of skills matching the parcours, so I don't see WvA (lower W/kg) or Evenepoel (no sprint) as favourites. If the race is more tactical, Belgium could have a chance, but they are the clear underdog.
Who did you think could win in Rio? Henao, Majka, Fuglsang, Van Avermaet?

While this route is more closed than the previous one (I would much rather have no Mikuni and Fuji twice instead before the final circuit), the race can be decided both before and well after Mikuni.
 
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Regarding Pog's bike:

I notice it still has the UAE logo on it, and things like wheels etc. have big logos.

AFAIK, bikes used in the Olympics should be as logo-free as possible, and only one time (on the downtube) can the name of the frame brand be shown (like Roglic' bike)?
I think they're not very strict about the logos on the bikes. I flipped through some photos from Rio and there were many bikes with the logos on the wheels, handlebars, toptubes etc. They'll just tape that UAE and Emirates logos for the race and they'll be fine.

In Roglic case, Cervelo (and some other brands like Trek or Pinarello) prepared a special frame paintings for the Olympics, so they might have reduced the number of the logos intentionally. Other riders just use their standard team-coloured bikes.
As for the wheels, Roglic is probably using the same logo-free protoype Vision set, that JV used during TdF. So it's not like they removed any logos from it purposely for Olympics. ;)
 
Who did you think could win in Rio? Henao, Majka, Fuglsang, Van Avermaet?

While this route is more closed than the previous one (I would much rather have no Mikuni and Fuji twice instead before the final circuit), the race can be decided both before and well after Mikuni.
All except GvA. And for the same reasons, Wva won’t win unless it’s a tactical affair. Logic dictates it’s the climbers’s race to dictate on Mikuni and only if the mess up afterwards, WvA has a chance to come back.
 
He has max. 5.5-5.6 W/kg on that climb while Pogacar and Roglic have >6W/kg. And based on Tirreno, Pog is more than capable of conserving a 30-60s gap on WvA after dropping him on a steep climb.
Van Aert did 6.0 W/kg on Port de Bales last year IIRC. Pretty sure his Plateau de Glieres climb was also in the range of 6.0W/kg.

Problem is that when fresh Pog & Rog will do 6.6+ on Kimuni.

However, heat should absolutely depress climbing speeds normally.
 
He has max. 5.5-5.6 W/kg on that climb while Pogacar and Roglic have >6W/kg. And based on Tirreno, Pog is more than capable of conserving a 30-60s gap on WvA after dropping him on a steep climb.

numbers when riding around in the peloton and tearing up a last climb

The Olympic road race is a different kettle of fish... what are the numbers after 7 hours of hard graft with a few teammates ..most probably dropped
 
numbers when riding around in the peloton and tearing up a last climb

The Olympic road race is a different kettle of fish... what are the numbers after 7 hours of hard graft with a few teammates ..most probably dropped
I estimated around 90% of max numbers, because I kept the humidity and heat in mind. In optimal circumstances, WvA is probably capable of 6.0W/kg but you can’t neglect that Pog always will have 0.3-0.4 W/kg more.
Do you think they all had a sprint, or why is it a criterium this year but not back then? And what did logic dictate about London?
Ofcourse logic isn’t always applied in the race, but it’s the only scenario that can be applied if wanted. All other scenarios are possible but so hard to predict and discuss beforehand. Like, if a good breakaway is up the road and survives after Mikuni, or if after Mikuni there is no cohesion / cooperation. And ofcourse we have to hope for a non-textbook scenario because it’s much more exciting. But all I’m saying is that the Mikuni climb is very easy by the numbers: too hard for WvA, perfect for (guys like). If they drop WvA there, they have to keep him at a distance.
 
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Wout’s best chance is that Evenpoel is out front over the top of Mikuni. I hope this is the scenario as I have them both on my cq team…

Just occurred to me that if Evenpoel and WvA are able to work together, they could win a lot of races when riding for the national team. Evenpoel is best attacking from distance, and anyone who tows WvA back to remco, does so at their own peril.
 
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Wout’s best chance is that Evenpoel is out front over the top of Mikuni. I hope this is the scenario as I have them both on my cq team…

Just occurred to me that if Evenpoel and WvA are able to work together, they could win a lot of races when riding for the national team. Evenpoel is best attacking from distance, and anyone who tows WvA back to remco, does so at their own peril.
Please no! I have neither of them!

What I really need is a podium of Schachmann, Higuita and Hirschi...
 
Came to the same conclusion. Apart from Pog and Rog nobody wants to start Mikuni in the front group with Pog and Rog.
Big question for me is simply how much time can an attacking group gain from Fuju before Mikuni, but then there's a chance everyone reacts anyway and you just end up with the strongest on the front waiting for splits to happen in the 40km in between.

Slovenia should just not let a group get away without Roglic or Pogacar
 
In these kind of hot and humid condition. going hard from far out can cost you. There's just no way to cool down anymore, in the same way as Strade bianche last year. Wout won there trying to keep his powder dry as long as possible.

I am looking at those results for people who can manage heat well, and i spotted Bettiol there doing a good result. He's my bet for an outsider to win here. But i wouldn't be surprised to see attackers on fuji cracking later and even if you do mikuni pass full gas from the bottom you can crack after that, it's still quite long to the finish.
 
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In these kind of hot and humid condition. going hard from far out can cost you. There's just no way to cool down anymore, in the same way as Strade bianche last year. Wout won there trying to keep his powder dry as long as possible.

I am looking at those results for people who can manage heat well, and i spotted Bettiol there doing a good result. He's my bet for an outsider to win here. But i wouldn't be surprised to see attackers on fuji cracking later and even if you do mikuni pass full gas from the bottom you can crack after that, it's still quite long to the finish.
Yeah Bettiol is my favorite long shot as well.
 

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