Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

[Mayomaniac]

Italy will 100% try to ambush the top favourites early on.

 

[HelloDolly]

Must have been looking at the wrong info on the descent ??

However it still allows for an non climbing group to get back on

 

[Red Rick]

Italy will 100% try to ambush the top favourites early on.

Nibali to once again lose the race for someone else?

 

[SafeBet]

Bettiol on his day can be a great climber. Problem is that day comes once in a year (and I'm afraid that day has already come this year: Sega di Ala).

He also says he likes hot weather. For instance last year he already said before Strade Bianche he would perform well because of the extreme heat.
Must be said he has a few great performances in terrible weather too.

 

[Escarabajo]

It was dry.

Slamy!

 

[Escarabajo]

Wasn't the crash in Rio because of small rocks/rubble on the road?

In South America, there are many roads that do not catch the sun because of many trees with leaves that never go away because of the type of weather system. This humid and hot type of weather helps proliferate the mold on the roads. That is very slippery.

 

[Rollthedice]

Some will definitely try but whoever gets away really will have to work perfectly together on that 40km flat between Fuji and Mikuni because Tratnik and Polanc + at least 1-2 nations that have missed the move (e.g. GB with Tao and GT working for the Yates brothers) will work behind. And I don't think that's gonna happen if the group is not massive.

Well, it's not quite flat, the only flat part is around the lake and the chase will depend on who makes the break or breaks and what team has capable and willing gregarios.

The race conditions will be difficult, probably hot certainly humid, 230km, no race radios, max 5 men teams. There will be a morning break, depends who's there, who will chase. I've seen a list with the order of team cars, first Belgium then Italy, maybe it's important (Cassani and Moscon have some experience in this regard).

The ingredients are there for a chaotic race and unpredictable results. What I think is that at least two strong teams, Belgium and Italy will not place all their bets on Mikuni.

 

[Publiuszam]

Nibali to once again lose the race for someone else?

Italy to lose again is a given...they will be there and everyone will say they did great. I dont want them to do great, i want them to win.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Wasn't the crash in Rio because of small rocks/rubble on the road?

i was there, it wasn't wet nor had rubble.. it was just technical..
and the conditions were the same all week where they trained AND passed twice before in the race.. they just risked it too much..
Nibali went down in the most technical turn of all, a turn with 2 "parts"..
AvVlueten+Thomas turn is basically the last turn and is NOT difficult..

 

[Mayomaniac]

Bettiol on his day can be a great climber. Problem is that day comes once in a year (and I'm afraid that day has already come this year: Sega di Ala).

He also says he likes hot weather. For instance last year he already said before Strade Bianche he would perform well because of the extreme heat.
Must be said he has a few great performances in terrible weather too.

Same with Formolo, great in the heat (Strade Bianche last year and when he won the Italian NC) and great when it's cold and rainy (2019 LBL and the Grand Bonard stage)

 

[Rollthedice]

Actually there's 13 climbs says Italy's Cassani, of course the 3 big ones are those important culminating with Mikuni but before the entrance to the racetrack there's a 1500m climb half of which is at 10%, from there it's only 4km to the finish.

 

[houtdffan]

The potential typhoon is Monday into Tuesday (it is not In-fa, this is another developing system). The road race is OK. What day is the TT?

 

[markene2]

I have money on both Bettiol and Lutsenko, i feel like both of them will fly

 

[SafeBet]

The potential typhoon is Monday into Tuesday (it is not In-fa, this is another developing system). The road race is OK. What day is the TT?

Wednesday.

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

Italy has a team that reminds me of the football euro champs: strong and dependable members without the biggest favorites. My longshots come from there: Ciccone & Bettiol (and... no, okay, let's not say it in this thread).

I don't think VA will be there to contest the finish, for Belgium I like Remco's chances more.

Slovenia will have a medal. It's just hard to imagine a scenario where both Pog and Rog are distanced, unless they are way off their best shape.

 

[Bonimenier]

I'm expecting Van Avermaet to ride Roglic on 9 mins again just as in Rio.

 

[Rollthedice]

Italy has a team that reminds me of the football euro champs: strong and dependable members without the biggest favorites. My longshots come from there: Ciccone & Bettiol (and... no, okay, let's not say it in this thread).

I don't think VA will be there to contest the finish, for Belgium I like Remco's chances more.

Slovenia will have a medal. It's just hard to imagine a scenario where both Pog and Rog are distanced, unless they are way off their best shape.

Pog will sacrifice himself for Rog, he is younger still has time to win, bag full of Tours already and feels sorry Rog crashed out of the Tour. Problem is Rog will not be able to bag the Olympic gold. In fact I don't think he'll be on the podium.

 

[Netserk]

Quite tiring response. The descent in Rio wasn't dry. It was damp. To make this very clear: damp is not the same as dry, and has, technically / from a bicycle point of view, more in common with a wet descent, as it is slippery. I saved you the comprehensive - between the lines - reading.

Is this how you say thank you for correcting an honest(?) mistake? (And how difficult can it be to own up to it?) Would you rather that your misinformation polluted the conversation?

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

Pog will sacrifice himself for Rog, he is younger still has time to win, bag full of Tours already and feels sorry Rog crashed out of the Tour. Problem is Rog will not be able to bag the Olympic gold. In fact I don't think he'll be on the podium.

Pog only sacrifices himself if they know Rog can be competitive (I'm assuming you are referring to the lingering effects of his crash). Otherwise it doesn't matter how full a bag is, there is always room for more. Especially for races that only come once every four years, you never know what is going to change in so much time (maybe by 2024 Evenepoel will have learned to ride a bike and will beat the sh*t out of Pog at the Tour).

 

[titan31]

I'd have to imagine most teams will go we can't beat Roglic and Pogacar if we leave it to that last climb so will try before then. I'm expecting a bit of a stalling pattern with some small nations in the break until Fuji and then we'll see who have the legs and I'm expecting the flatter section between Fuji and Mikuni to be raced hard by the teams whove made it over but don't have anyone who can match Rog and Pog there.

Likes of the stronger flat classic riders like Asgreen, Cavagna, Moscon/Bettiol, Kwiatowski, Van Baarle surely try here. I'd expect one of the Belgians to try here surely too or at least to mark moves and not contribute much. Teams are small enough that with the right makeup a group could go here and contest at the finish.

Strength wise the Slovenian team seem unlikely to chase and I can't see Roglic or Pogacar working for each other unless one is suffering so they might be relying on trade team riders to close stuff down.

 

[Volderke]

Is this how you say thank you for correcting an honest(?) mistake? (And how difficult can it be to own up to it?) Would you rather that your misinformation polluted the conversation?

I point out that the crash in Rio won’t happen because the descent there was way more technical and wet. Even if I was mistaken about wet, the point is that the character of the descent in Rio played a crucial in the outcome as it resulted in a crash, giving a lesser climber like GVA a chance to win), while something similar (a crash) won’t likely happen in Tokyo as the descent is non-technical and, as it’s a wider road with less vegetation, not likely to be wet /damp.
You decided to focus on one word and while you could argue that it wasn’t wet or even damp, it’s irrelevant and tiring in the context.

 

[memyselfandI]

Sivakov, Adam Yates, Almeida....

 

[Sciatic]

I'd have to imagine most teams will go we can't beat Roglic and Pogacar if we leave it to that last climb so will try before then. I'm expecting a bit of a stalling pattern with some small nations in the break until Fuji and then we'll see who have the legs and I'm expecting the flatter section between Fuji and Mikuni to be raced hard by the teams whove made it over but don't have anyone who can match Rog and Pog there.

Likes of the stronger flat classic riders like Asgreen, Cavagna, Moscon/Bettiol, Kwiatowski, Van Baarle surely try here. I'd expect one of the Belgians to try here surely too or at least to mark moves and not contribute much. Teams are small enough that with the right makeup a group could go here and contest at the finish.

Strength wise the Slovenian team seem unlikely to chase and I can't see Roglic or Pogacar working for each other unless one is suffering so they might be relying on trade team riders to close stuff down.

You’re right that teams and riders might consider that strategy because Pog and Rog would pummel them on the last climb, but that doesn’t mean it’s reasonable to expect they will execute that strategy. At Flanders, the entire peloton knew that it was almost impossible to stay with Cancellara on the Oude Kwaremont, but very few riders ever tried or were able to execute the strategy of being out in front before that climb.

 

[Salvarani]

A well-timed solo attack takes it.

 

[topt]

I think anyone and their mother will work with Van Aert before the climb if Pogacar and Roglic are the ones behind.

I mean tactics for Slovenia should be quite easy, one of them follows Wout at all time the other one follows Remco at all times until the Mikuni climb, than do their thing.