Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

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In these kind of hot and humid condition. going hard from far out can cost you. There's just no way to cool down anymore, in the same way as Strade bianche last year. Wout won there trying to keep his powder dry as long as possible.

I am looking at those results for people who can manage heat well, and i spotted Bettiol there doing a good result. He's my bet for an outsider to win here. But i wouldn't be surprised to see attackers on fuji cracking later and even if you do mikuni pass full gas from the bottom you can crack after that, it's still quite long to the finish.
Yes, but the alternative is what, hoping to be on a super day and make it over Mikuni with the best/lose as less time as possible and hope for no cooperation ahead.

I think I would take the bigger chance of blowing up and also a bigger chance of getting a medal than going for a safer top-10 option.

My prediction right now as that maybe something happens on the Fuji, but there will definitely be attempts in the 40k between Fuji and Mikuni.
 
Oct 31, 2018
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I am looking at those results for people who can manage heat well, and i spotted Bettiol there doing a good result.
Agreed. I really think it'll be a classic rider FTW and not a pure climber. Obviously Pogacar and Roglic can also be considered classic riders as they've both won LBL so it doesn't narrow it down to much.

However, I don't think climbers like Carapaz, Yates brothers, Martin or Uran stand much of chance.

My prediction:

  1. WVA
  2. Roglic
  3. Bettiol
Pogacar & Evenepoel to miss the decisive break and both end up protecting the break for Roglic/WVA.
 
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Jul 19, 2019
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Probably stating the obvious but I'm struggling to see a race situation where WVA can actually get himself in a position to win unless Belgium get their tactics absolutely spot on.

It's fine when he is the strongest rider on the parcours (e.g. strafe bianchi), but he's almost certainly no going to be the fastest man up the final climb.

No one's going to work with him out front in a break, and no one is going to work with him behind a break in the last 30km either.

There's some strong TT'ers who suit the final climb a lot better who are very unlikely to let him ride himself back into contention if they lose him up Mikuni.

Interested to hear the bettiol chat. Put a few £ on him the other day as an outside bet. Was absolutely flying by the end of the Giro. He's obviously not going to be storming up the final climb ahead of Rog & Pog but if the race becomes uncontrolled he could keep himself in contention for the run-in.

I think this will come down to Jetlag and heat tolerance rather than pure climbing ability as to who is in contention in the last 30km. I'd predict a small group of non-favourites or lone rider to get away at some point whilst the others behind refuse to work, rather than a LBL scenario where a group of favourites come to the line together.
 
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Is anyone going to be able to call this race with everyone in white ??

BTW those saying Bettiol hasn't a chance can I remind you of GVA in Rio

Also the conditions in Tokyo suit Bettiol

Might be an Idea if Nibali and Bettiol do a one two attack ...at least one of them might get a medal
And possibly put Moscon up the road early on
 
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The only way GvA had a chance in Rio was because there was a wet, technical descent and a crash. Nothing more or less than a (very low) chance event. There is no wet descent in Tokyo as fas as I know, and unless Remco acts like a bowling ball, there won’t be a crash.
The only advantage I see for the lesser climbers is the longer stretch of road after the final do-or-die climb to recover some of the time losses.
 
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Probably stating the obvious but I'm struggling to see a race situation where WVA can actually get himself in a position to win unless Belgium get their tactics absolutely spot on.

It's fine when he is the strongest rider on the parcours (e.g. strafe bianchi), but he's almost certainly no going to be the fastest man up the final climb.

No one's going to work with him out front in a break, and no one is going to work with him behind a break in the last 30km either.
I think anyone and their mother will work with Van Aert before the climb if Pogacar and Roglic are the ones behind.
 
The only way GvA had a chance in Rio was because there was a wet, technical descent and a crash. Nothing more or less than a (very low) chance event. There is no wet descent in Tokyo as fas as I know, and unless Remco acts like a bowling ball, there won’t be a crash.
The only advantage I see for the lesser climbers is the longer stretch of road after the final do-or-die climb to recover some of the time losses.
It was dry.
 
The more I think about it the mroe I think most riders will actually want to be gone on Fuji. I think the race will explode there already.
Came to the same conclusion. Apart from Pog and Rog nobody wants to start Mikuni in the front group with Pog and Rog.
Some will definitely try but whoever gets away really will have to work perfectly together on that 40km flat between Fuji and Mikuni because Tratnik and Polanc + at least 1-2 nations that have missed the move (e.g. GB with Tao and GT working for the Yates brothers) will work behind. And I don't think that's gonna happen if the group is not massive.
 

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