Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

[Mayomaniac]

Dumoulin basically said he's had good days in training unlike today, and you only know until you race that you're super. Probably lacked racing for the RR. I think on a good day maybe like 5th and I honestly see 3rd as an absolute ceiling, unless Ganna shits the bed.

I wonder how well adjusted Ganna is tbh with ITT traininng vs track, etc

I don't see Ganna fighting for Gold. 3rd place yes, but I have a hard time seeing him win on this route with this kind of prep. I expect Dennis to appear out of nowhere like a stealth bomber, him vs Wout will be the fight for Gold, imo.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't see Ganna fighting for Gold. 3rd place yes, but I have a hard time seeing him win on this route with this kind of prep. I expect Dennis to appear out of nowhere like a stealth bomber, him vs Wout will be the fight for Gold, imo.

This is the most likely scenario, imho. But we don't know about Dennis either. I think on this course he'll need to be WC2019 strong to take gold. Otherwise, the only one capable of beating Van Aert might be Evenepoel, in case he can get his mojo going. But there are many unknowns. All we do know is Van Aert is in good form and the course should suit him better than it does Ganna. Küng is not going to be a factor. I think it will be Van Aert > Ganna > Küng with Dennis, Roglic, Evenepoel and Dumoulin somewhere in between those three.

 

[Tinnekeisabella]

Should Slovenia consider starting Pogacar in the ITT (if that is even possible)?

I think taking his spot wont be an option anymore, but not sure if Pogacar would want to do it anyway.

Although he was overjoyed with the bronze, he looks quite tired.

 

[Mayomaniac]

This is the most likely scenario, imho. But we don't know about Dennis either. I think on this course he'll need to be WC2019 strong to take gold. Otherwise, the only one capable of beating Van Aert might be Evenepoel, in case he can get his mojo going. But there are many unknowns. All we do know is Van Aert is in good form and the course should suit him better than it does Ganna. Küng is not going to be a factor. I think it will be Van Aert > Ganna > Küng with Dennis, Roglic, Evenepoel and Dumoulin somewhere in between those three.

Remco is also a bit of a wildcard atm, we don't really know how good his form is atm/how he stacks up against the best TTers in the world atm.
Bettiol can probably finish top 10 on a route like this, but so could 3 or 4 other Italian riders (if in peak shape).

 

[BlueRoads]

What do you think can McNulty do in the time trial?

 

[Scarponi]

Can someone explain to me why Stefan Kung is at 40/1 for the slightly punchy ITT that he seems to specialise in?

Makes for quite an attractive each-way bet unless I'm missing something?

last time someone did this they won the Oympic Gold haha

 

[42x16ss]

This is the most likely scenario, imho. But we don't know about Dennis either. I think on this course he'll need to be WC2019 strong to take gold. Otherwise, the only one capable of beating Van Aert might be Evenepoel, in case he can get his mojo going. But there are many unknowns. All we do know is Van Aert is in good form and the course should suit him better than it does Ganna. Küng is not going to be a factor. I think it will be Van Aert > Ganna > Küng with Dennis, Roglic, Evenepoel and Dumoulin somewhere in between those three.

Dennis has proven that if anyone can come from nowhere after isolating and doing nothing but train it's him. Also Van Aert has to be feeling the effects of the Tour and the RR.

Dennis is a very slight favourite IMO

 

[Mayomaniac]

What do you think can McNulty do in the time trial?

Top 10, he hasn't been up there fighting for the win in the last few TTs.
Cavagna and Asgreen are dangerous outsiders who are flying a bit under the radar, if 1 or 2 riders underperform one of those 2 can get a medal.

 

[Red Rick]

Top 10, he hasn't been up there fighting for the win in the last few TTs.
Cavagna and Asgreen are dangerous outsiders who are flying a bit under the radar, if 1 or 2 riders underperform one of those 2 can get a medal.

I think it's too hard for both of them tbh.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think it's too hard for both of them tbh.

Cavagna is good on not so steep hills, I wouldn't underestimate him.

 

[Nirvana]

Dumoulin basically said he's had good days in training unlike today, and you only know until you race that you're super. Probably lacked racing for the RR. I think on a good day maybe like 5th and I honestly see 3rd as an absolute ceiling, unless Ganna shits the bed.

I wonder how well adjusted Ganna is tbh with ITT traininng vs track, etc

IMHO the real impact of track training on Ganna is in his climbing level, last year at the Giro he had some days (Camigliatello, the Stelvio stage) where he showed top 20 climbing level, this year he was nowhere close to that and i don't remember him ever featuring in a group smaller than 70 riders (obviously excluding Montalcino where he destroyed the peloton in the flat sector and when he opened the echelon in the rain that aren't climbing performances) and the Olympic TT has a lot of climbing. If last year's Ganna would have been easily the favourite this year's one could even end up out of top 10.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Are we all cheering for Austria in the Women's ITT?

 

[Mayomaniac]

Are we all cheering for Austria in the Women's ITT?

She already has 2 top 20 results at the WC itt over the last 2 years, so a top 10 result would be a bit of a surprise, but not a huge upset.

 

[roundabout]

Are we all cheering for Austria in the Women's ITT?

I don't think Austria has a spot in that race

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Women get a day less to recover from the road race, before the ITT?

Remco is also a bit of a wildcard atm, we don't really know how good his form is atm/how he stacks up against the best TTers in the world atm.
Bettiol can probably finish top 10 on a route like this, but so could 3 or 4 other Italian riders (if in peak shape).

Yes, i said so in a previous post. Dennis, Evenepoel, Dumoulin and Roglic are basically unknowns. You could add Thomas to that list, but i wouldn't put him as the big favorite even in top shape. With everybody in top form, on this course it would be the two Belgians vs Dennis & dumoulin imho.

Cavagna is good on not so steep hills, I wouldn't underestimate him.

I'm not seeing it, tbh. Neither for Cavagna nor Asgreen. I can see them finish ahead of Küng, but not get into the battle for gold. I think on this course (with what we know now) maybe they should have sent Vingegaard. I think Almeida might have a better shot, maybe McNulty, to surprise.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Women get a day less to recover from the road race, before the ITT?


Yes, i said so in a previous post. Dennis, Evenepoel, Dumoulin and Roglic are basically unknowns. You could add Thomas to that list, but i wouldn't put him as the big favorite even in top shape. With everybody in top form, on this course it would be the two Belgians vs Dennis & dumoulin imho.


I'm not seeing it, tbh. Neither for Cavagna nor Asgreen. I can see them finish ahead of Küng, but not get into the battle for gold. I think on this course (with what we know now) maybe they should have sent Vingegaard. I think Almeida might have a better shot, maybe McNulty, to surprise.

Yeah, I mainly saw Asgreen and Cavagna as potential Bronze riders, if 1 or 2 others underperform.
Almeida is an interesting pick, he could do well.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Do when (or when do we) know the start times for the ITT's (yet)?

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's hard to predict with those guys who prepared themselves out of competition, but I'll have a shot.

WOMEN:
Dygert, Van der Breggen
Van Vleuten, Neben
Reusser, Brennauer, Brown

MEN:
Ganna, Van Aert
Küng, Asgreen, Cavagna
Evenepoel, Dennis, Dumoulin
Roglic, Thomas, Almeida

 

[Monte Serra]

Do when (or when do we) know the start times for the ITT's (yet)?

Yes, they have been posted. All times are local Japanese time:

Start times for the women's

Start times for the men's

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Looking at the profile my money would be on Van Aert

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Yes, they have been posted. All times are local Japanese time:

Start times for the women's

Start times for the men's

Thanks for that. Did you notice the 38 minute gap between rider 14 and 13?
Remco goes in the earlier group so will have finished before the tropical storm welcomes Tom Dumoulin to the ramp.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Thanks for that. Did you notice the 38 minute gap between rider 14 and 13?
Remco goes in the earlier group so will have finished before the tropical storm welcomes Tom Dumoulin to the ramp.

They do this when an ITT is in laps. Otherwise early riders will start their second lap when later riders start their first. With overtaking and drafting, that would likely give certain riders an unfair advantage over others, and it would make the entire thing a lot more chaotic.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

They do this when an ITT is in laps. Otherwise early riders will start their second lap when later riders start their first. With overtaking and drafting, that would likely give certain riders an unfair advantage over others, and it would make the entire thing a lot more chaotic.

Of course, it’s two laps! I was thinking like a Dutch physio there.
It could mean very different weather conditions for the two groups.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Of course, it’s two laps! I was thinking like a Dutch physio there.
It could mean very different weather conditions for the two groups.

There are three groups.
The first with a.o. Bennett, Kangert, Oliveira...
The second with Evenepoel, Porte, Uran, Schachmann...
And finally one with Dennis, Dumoulin, Roglic, Van Aert, Ganna...

 

[Breezy1985]

I think taking his spot wont be an option anymore, but not sure if Pogacar would want to do it anyway.

Although he was overjoyed with the bronze, he looks quite tired.

He gets tired ?