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Too Late, Too Furious: Tokyo Drift - The 2020 Olympics Thread

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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

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Mayomaniac said:
I don't see Ganna fighting for Gold. 3rd place yes, but I have a hard time seeing him win on this route with this kind of prep. I expect Dennis to appear out of nowhere like a stealth bomber, him vs Wout will be the fight for Gold, imo.
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This is the most likely scenario, imho. But we don't know about Dennis either. I think on this course he'll need to be WC2019 strong to take gold. Otherwise, the only one capable of beating Van Aert might be Evenepoel, in case he can get his mojo going. But there are many unknowns. All we do know is Van Aert is in good form and the course should suit him better than it does Ganna. Küng is not going to be a factor. I think it will be Van Aert > Ganna > Küng with Dennis, Roglic, Evenepoel and Dumoulin somewhere in between those three.
 
Mayomaniac

Mayomaniac

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
This is the most likely scenario, imho. But we don't know about Dennis either. I think on this course he'll need to be WC2019 strong to take gold. Otherwise, the only one capable of beating Van Aert might be Evenepoel, in case he can get his mojo going. But there are many unknowns. All we do know is Van Aert is in good form and the course should suit him better than it does Ganna. Küng is not going to be a factor. I think it will be Van Aert > Ganna > Küng with Dennis, Roglic, Evenepoel and Dumoulin somewhere in between those three.
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Remco is also a bit of a wildcard atm, we don't really know how good his form is atm/how he stacks up against the best TTers in the world atm.
Bettiol can probably finish top 10 on a route like this, but so could 3 or 4 other Italian riders (if in peak shape).
 
42x16ss

42x16ss

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
This is the most likely scenario, imho. But we don't know about Dennis either. I think on this course he'll need to be WC2019 strong to take gold. Otherwise, the only one capable of beating Van Aert might be Evenepoel, in case he can get his mojo going. But there are many unknowns. All we do know is Van Aert is in good form and the course should suit him better than it does Ganna. Küng is not going to be a factor. I think it will be Van Aert > Ganna > Küng with Dennis, Roglic, Evenepoel and Dumoulin somewhere in between those three.
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Dennis has proven that if anyone can come from nowhere after isolating and doing nothing but train it's him. Also Van Aert has to be feeling the effects of the Tour and the RR.

Dennis is a very slight favourite IMO
 
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Nirvana

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Red Rick said:
Dumoulin basically said he's had good days in training unlike today, and you only know until you race that you're super. Probably lacked racing for the RR. I think on a good day maybe like 5th and I honestly see 3rd as an absolute ceiling, unless Ganna shits the bed.

I wonder how well adjusted Ganna is tbh with ITT traininng vs track, etc
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IMHO the real impact of track training on Ganna is in his climbing level, last year at the Giro he had some days (Camigliatello, the Stelvio stage) where he showed top 20 climbing level, this year he was nowhere close to that and i don't remember him ever featuring in a group smaller than 70 riders (obviously excluding Montalcino where he destroyed the peloton in the flat sector and when he opened the echelon in the rain that aren't climbing performances) and the Olympic TT has a lot of climbing. If last year's Ganna would have been easily the favourite this year's one could even end up out of top 10.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

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Women get a day less to recover from the road race, before the ITT?

Mayomaniac said:
Remco is also a bit of a wildcard atm, we don't really know how good his form is atm/how he stacks up against the best TTers in the world atm.
Bettiol can probably finish top 10 on a route like this, but so could 3 or 4 other Italian riders (if in peak shape).
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Yes, i said so in a previous post. Dennis, Evenepoel, Dumoulin and Roglic are basically unknowns. You could add Thomas to that list, but i wouldn't put him as the big favorite even in top shape. With everybody in top form, on this course it would be the two Belgians vs Dennis & dumoulin imho.

Mayomaniac said:
Cavagna is good on not so steep hills, I wouldn't underestimate him.
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I'm not seeing it, tbh. Neither for Cavagna nor Asgreen. I can see them finish ahead of Küng, but not get into the battle for gold. I think on this course (with what we know now) maybe they should have sent Vingegaard. I think Almeida might have a better shot, maybe McNulty, to surprise.
 
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Mayomaniac

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Women get a day less to recover from the road race, before the ITT?


Yes, i said so in a previous post. Dennis, Evenepoel, Dumoulin and Roglic are basically unknowns. You could add Thomas to that list, but i wouldn't put him as the big favorite even in top shape. With everybody in top form, on this course it would be the two Belgians vs Dennis & dumoulin imho.


I'm not seeing it, tbh. Neither for Cavagna nor Asgreen. I can see them finish ahead of Küng, but not get into the battle for gold. I think on this course (with what we know now) maybe they should have sent Vingegaard. I think Almeida might have a better shot, maybe McNulty, to surprise.
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Yeah, I mainly saw Asgreen and Cavagna as potential Bronze riders, if 1 or 2 others underperform.
Almeida is an interesting pick, he could do well.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

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Carrick-On-Seine said:
Thanks for that. Did you notice the 38 minute gap between rider 14 and 13?
Remco goes in the earlier group so will have finished before the tropical storm welcomes Tom Dumoulin to the ramp.
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They do this when an ITT is in laps. Otherwise early riders will start their second lap when later riders start their first. With overtaking and drafting, that would likely give certain riders an unfair advantage over others, and it would make the entire thing a lot more chaotic.
 
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Carrick-On-Seine

Carrick-On-Seine

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
They do this when an ITT is in laps. Otherwise early riders will start their second lap when later riders start their first. With overtaking and drafting, that would likely give certain riders an unfair advantage over others, and it would make the entire thing a lot more chaotic.
Click to expand...
Of course, it’s two laps! I was thinking like a Dutch physio there.
It could mean very different weather conditions for the two groups.
 
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