Tour 2012: Route Rumours / Our wishes

[The Hitch]

ACF "where Rodriguez, Anton, Nibali & Scarponi were all too tired or lacked any form on the climbs. "

It's curious that they were all so off form - the Giro was a long time ago. There is the possibility that they were just owned - but there were too many new faces and riders you wouldnt expect to see hanging in.

I agree the dauphine had a better field - but I think the Vuelta was raced harder - clinically harder in some cases.

It was actually said by Igor Fuji Anton or one of his trainers before the Vuelta that they believed he was off form as the Giro had simply wrecked him so much.

I myself laughed it off back then, saying Anton should be able to handle a GT from 3 months ago, but I was wrong. Anton and his trainers were right. The Giro was so hard all its riders suffered big time.

They say a GT can destroy a career if taken too early.

I suppose the same logic might suggest that if you make a gt hard enough, it can hurt a older and more experienced rider's career too.

Nibali had ridden very well in 4 previous gts, and suddenly cracked. Purito was nowhere in the mountains. Scarponi pulled out. They were being beaten by Wouter Poels and Bauke Mollema.

Only Menchov, who was poor in the Giro, seemed to bring some sort of form.

And so many others who did the Giro havent even done anything since.

Thats also why its totally ridiculous to suggest Contador was beaten by better riders in the Tour and is looking for excuses, as so many seem so eager to do.

 

[roundabout]

More excuses by the #1 fanboy. You should look up what Nibali had to say about his preparation and why Scarponi abandoned before making things up as neither of them blamed the Giro.

Off to the ignore list you go.

 

[The Hitch]

More excuses by the #1 fanboy. You should look up what Nibali had to say about his preparation and why Scarponi abandoned before making things up as neither of them blamed the Giro.

Off to the ignore list.

I never said they did blame the Giro though did I. I offered it as an explanation of why they and so many others failed.

Nibali allegedly did the 10 Giro with no preperation and matched Evans in the mountains more or less. Now he starts losing to Wouter Poels.

Who am I the number 1 fanboy for now btw? Anton? Nibali? Maybe you should start making a list, seeing as you are so concerned by which riders i like.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

The Giro was so hard all its riders suffered big time.

A question, then, for those who call for all GTs to be 2011 Giro like in their nature, and howl their displeasure at anything other. Do you want to see riders utterly spent for the rest of the season after 1 GT or would you rather see a more balanced parcours and see these riders at or close to their best on a number of occasions? You can't have it both ways.

 

[zigzag wanderer]

A question, then, for those who call for all GTs to be 2011 Giro like in their nature, and howl their displeasure at anything other. Do you want to see riders utterly spent for the rest of the season after 1 GT or would you rather see a more balanced parcours and see these riders at or close to their best on a number of occasions? You can't have it both ways.

This is a very good point - May is very early for a rider to effectively end their season. If the Giro comes up with something similar in future, would you be surprised to see most GC contenders skip it?

 

[Moncoutie]

Isn't all this Wiggins/Martin vs Evans/Martin TT comparison based on the assumption that Martin was on top form at BOTH the Dauphine & the Tour?

 

[Catwhoorg]

He did 55:27 at the Dauphine and 55:33 at the Tour.

Thats pretty consistent

 

[sultanofhyd]

He did 55:27 at the Dauphine and 55:33 at the Tour.

Thats pretty consistent

He said he felt way better at the Dauphine, but the experience of having done it before helped him get that close at the Tour.

 

[Zoncolan]

He did 55:27 at the Dauphine and 55:33 at the Tour.

Thats pretty consistent

Wet road anyone?

 

[Bavarianrider]

He did 55:27 at the Dauphine and 55:33 at the Tour.

Thats pretty consistent

Tony was totally washed up at the tour.
You can say what you wanna say, but under normal conditions Tony doesn't get dropped by Hushov and EBH like a stone on a Cat 2 climb.
When Tony won the Dauphine TT he said he isn't in top shape and wants to do this TT faster at the Tour.

 

[Magnus]

If they were really mountainous then you would not be using the phrase "could turn out to be mountainous." It would be obvious.

At the moment we don't know the route. Only start finish towns and distances. That's why I use the phrase 'could turn out to be'.

For instance, going from Limoux to Foix you can take the highway and have approx zero climbs or you could go over Port de Paiheres and other climbs. Who knows?
I don't but I have enough knowledge of the area to say that it could be mountainous. So I did.

The only thing certain (edit: about climbs in those stages) is that the stage to Planche des Belles Filles will have a short steep climb at the end as that is the only road going to Planche des Belles Filles.

 

[roundabout]

There's mountainous and then there's the stage in the 2009 Tour out of Andorra or the 2010 stage to Pau mountainous.

 

[AussieGoddess]

Tony was totally washed up at the tour.
You can say what you wanna say, but under normal conditions Tony doesn't get dropped by Hushov and EBH like a stone on a Cat 2 climb.
When Tony won the Dauphine TT he said he isn't in top shape and wants to do this TT faster at the Tour.

that is a major issue though - we know he can TT pretty well, but how much better than Wiggans/Evans etc that he can be after 3 weeks of racing is another question.

We already know that Evans and Wiggans can do that kind of performance after 3 weeks and a few mountains. Dunno about Martin though .....

 

[Winterfold]

Raced timidly? Who was racing timidly? Froome and Wiggins got on the front and absolutely nailed it. The others held on for dear life. What was timid about that?

+1 ACF I know you dont like Clinic talk much but some of the calculations eg hallalala (?) etc do are pretty illuminating. Looking at power estimates for Dauphin and Vuelta and the Tour, Wiggins would have been right up there. And a few others, although I would be interested to see them repeat their performances in France - ok that enough of that

 

[airstream]

Last October everyone on this forum advised Evans not to ride the Tour, said that his best climbing stayed in past, there're too many MTF's and the bad days are inevitable as well, etc. Evans won it. I think Andy's fans can really hope for the victory. This is not less likely than that. I have no doubt Bruyneel will be able to think out something extraordinary to take this Tour, having such a great team. The only problem is Contador...

 

[just some guy]

Last October everyone on this forum advised Evans not to ride the Tour, said that his best climbing stayed in past, there're too many MTF's and the bad days are inevitable as well, etc. Evans won it. I think Andy's fans can really hope for the victory. This is not less likely than that. I have no doubt Bruyneel will be able to think out something extraordinary to take this Tour, having such a great team. The only problem is Contador...

all of which should be discussed in the clinic

 

[airstream]

all of which should be discussed in the clinic

Im absolutely serious with no doping hints or you're just joking?

 

[just some guy]

Im absolutely serious with no doping hints or you're just joking?

Andy will never be a ITT rider who can stay with those that can enough so he wins a tour with 90 odd KM of ITT´s and limited Mountains unless he changes his body type in the next 8 months and there is only one way to do that

 

[airstream]

Andy will never be a ITT rider who can stay with those that can enough so he wins a tour with 90 odd KM of ITT´s and limited Mountains unless he changes his body type in the next 8 months and there is only one way to do that

I dont argue with it. Andy doesnt need to become a great TT'er to win the Tour. That would be enough to have his '09 '10 form. He rode the worst long TT throughout all the Tours and somehow many people consider he'll do the same further. I just think Evans is unlikely to improve more. He can only regress. Andy's able to get a lot stronger. His potential is enormous.

 

[just some guy]

I dont argue with it. Andy doesnt need to become a great TT'er to win the Tour. That would be enough to have his '09 '10 form. He rode the worst long TT throughout all the Tours and somehow many people consider he'll do the same further. I just think Evans is unlikely to improve more. He can only regress. Andy's able to get a lot stronger. His potential is enormous.

Thing about potential is it is nothing unless it becomes reality.

2010 and 2011 were Andys to win he didn´t 2012 route is not designed for him as a rider.

Andy should win a stage race and ride the Giro without Fränk next year and then come back to the tour a better rider.

Evans, Brad ,Contador Sammy are all much much more suited to 2012.

 

[airstream]

Sponsors wont let them miss the Tour. Schlecks will start. Possibly the detailed parcours create some opportunities. They will fire on the penultimate climb on one of the stages very likely. Anyone believes Schlecks wont start?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I dont argue with it. Andy doesnt need to become a great TT'er to win the Tour.

Of course he doesn't. He could have won it twice already and nobody would accuse him of being a great TTer.

He does have to be at least a very good TTer to win this edition of the Tour however, which is why he's a very long shot indeed.

 

[Nielsa]

I just think Evans is unlikely to improve more. He can only regress.

Actually in various endurance sports you often see people getting a bigger and bigger engine as they reach their mid-30's. Some fade early as they reach their 30's but those people tend to be the ones that raced hard and a lot from they were 19-21. And Evans did his first GT in 2002, only 9 years ago, when he was 25.

 

[airstream]

Actually in various endurance sports you often see people getting a bigger and bigger engine as they reach their mid-30's. Some fade early as they reach their 30's but those people tend to be the ones that raced hard and a lot from they were 19-21. And Evans did his first GT in 2002, only 9 years ago, when he was 25.

Yeah. In general it's a complicated theme and the riders develope nonlinear. But it was obvious Evans stagnated in '09-10 and hard to assume, that having won the TdF at 34, he understood how to ride GT's correctly and he will stay at the same level. I dont try to disparage his merits. He deserved this. But there was so much luck. For example, he wasnt touched in the Pyrenees at all. It will never happen again. Schleck and Contador will saw him in half in the mountains.

 

[Descender]

In the last mountain stage, the Peyragudes one, they might actually do something very interesting indeed: Climb Balès-Peyresourde east-descent into Louderville then up a road to the Peyragudes ski resort, which would be 5kms at 9,5%.