Tour de France 2011 STAGE 20 - Grenoble 42.5 km ITT

[auscyclefan94]

How I see the gc at then end of today

Evans
A Schleck
Contador
F Schleck
Voeckler
Sanchez
Cunego
Basso
Danielson
Peraud

 

[2wheels]

How it helps Cadel though is that it makes the times slightly slower. The slower the times the more time Cadel has to put vital seconds into Andy.

That may depend. If it's truly raining, yes; on the other hand, if rain stops and there's a damp road, times may be quick. It may be my imagination, but it always feels a wee bit quicker and smoother to me when the road is damp. Any physicists out there? Maybe it's just my imagination. . .

 

[The Hitch]

How I see the gc at then end of today

Evans
A Schleck
Contador
F Schleck
Voeckler
Sanchez
Cunego
Basso
Danielson
Peraud

You see Contador taking 3 minutes on Frank

I think he only took something like 2.30 in Annency when Contador was on 100% form and beat even Cancellara.

 

[2wheels]

Hey, I just checked-- bless the Internet! Coefficient of friction for rubber on dry asphalt is 0.5-0.8; for rubber and wet asphalt the range is 0.25-0.75. So it's not my imagination.

 

[Cycloid]

Hey, I just checked-- bless the Internet! Coefficient of friction for rubber on dry asphalt is 0.5-0.8; for rubber and wet asphalt the range is 0.25-0.75. So it's not my imagination.

Got some bad news for you...
In this case, you want a higher coefficient of friction. The lower coefficient of friction means there is less grip of your tyres on the road, therefore, less potential drive, increased risk of slipping. Nothing else.

 

[auscyclefan94]

You see Contador taking 3 minutes on Frank

I think he only took something like 2.30 in Annency when Contador was on 100% form and beat even Cancellara.

Yep...Frank didn't look crash hot at all in the finale and pretty much had two easier days than the others in the Alps where he could just hold the wheels.

 

[sausagedog]

Age ought to be against Evans. He is 34. Normally the body's ability to recuperate declines after 30. Although he appears to be in top form, it is possible his TT ability will be more impaired by the previous three weeks than Andy's.

 

[wirral]

Cadel will beat Andy today but not by the required 57 seconds to take yellow. Very bad luck for him. It will be his seventh Grand Tour finish in the top 5 but never a victory. 2011 was his last chance. Gotta feel for the guy.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

You see Contador taking 3 minutes on Frank

I think he only took something like 2.30 in Annency when Contador was on 100% form and beat even Cancellara.

andy/evans
frank
ac
surely imo.

 

[unsheath]

The bigger question is whether Frank busts out the Camelbak.

 

[movingtarget]

Will Andy handle the downhills ? It all depends on which Evans turns up. If he is is having a good day, Schleck is in trouble. But if the fatigue factor hits both of them a la 2010 TDF final time trial,Conta v Andy, the advantage swings back to Schleck. What about Frank ? The forgotten one. He should hang on to third place while poor Thomas will probably be smoked by Bert. Cunego looks like losing big time too if he rides his usual time trial.

 

[GreasyMonkey]

Rain, wet roads & descending....

Looks like all bad news for Schlecklet...

There is rain or damp roads forecast, and the road through Saint Martin d' Uraige appears to have a few twists (hairpins) coming into town and then in the top of the descent (road D280), until they come back onto the D524 for the run back into Grenoble.

Maybe not at all suited to Andy? He admits that he has not even done a recce of the course as of Friday afternoon - Cadel has raced it not many weeks ago.

Thoughts?

 

[wirral]

Maybe we'll see him out in plastic moulding this time with just his eyes visible.

 

[Climbing]

It will a very interesting TdF end, after some epic stage!
Whoever wins deserved it, great racing.

 

[Random Direction]

I would say the biggest question is does Cavendish latch on to Cancellara's wheel (4 minute gap at the start) and then try to outsprint him.

 

[Galic Ho]

It's unlike Andy will make up 3 minutes to Fränk

Sastre did in 2008. Having the Schleck's not separated is a bad idea. Franck has shown in the past an eagerness to slow down and let his team mate draft him. Race commisars don't do squat about it either. Downside this year is that if Franck slows down far enough, Contador will beat him onto the podium. Hopefully they behave themselves.

 

[Galic Ho]

Which won't be needed if they only want one guy on the podium... In yellow. He can just easily stroll by until Andy sees him and then up the pace a little. I'm not saying they're going to do this, but if they have a brain they would do it.

They did it in 2008. Franck slowed for Carlos.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Split times from Dauphine

Time check 1 (15km)
1. MARTIN Tony 21 HTC - HIGHROAD 00:19:25
2. ZABRISKIE David 111 TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO 00:19:42 00:00:17
3. WIGGINS Bradley 121 SKY PROCYCLING 00:19:46 00:00:21
4. HAGEN Edvald Boasson 124 SKY PROCYCLING 00:20:00 00:00:35
5. MALORI Adriano 201 LAMPRE - ISD 00:20:03 00:00:38
6. RIBLON Christophe 68 AG2R LA MONDIALE 00:20:04 00:00:39
7. THOMAS Geraint 126 SKY PROCYCLING 00:20:21 00:00:56
8. URAN Rigoberto 127 SKY PROCYCLING 00:20:25 00:01:00
8. BOUET Maxime 62 AG2R LA MONDIALE 00:20:25 00:01:00
8. TAARAMAE Rein 51 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 00:20:25 00:01:00
11. EVANS Cadel 71 BMC RACING TEAM 00:20:26 00:01:01

Time Check 2 (27.5km)
1. WIGGINS Bradley 121 SKY PROCYCLING 00:39:29
2. MARTIN Tony 21 HTC - HIGHROAD 00:39:29 00:00:00
3. ZABRISKIE David 111 TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO 00:40:04 00:00:35
4. HAGEN Edvald Boasson 124 SKY PROCYCLING 00:40:19 00:00:50
5. BRAJKOVIC Janez 1 TEAM RADIOSHACK 00:40:41 00:01:12
6. RIBLON Christophe 68 AG2R LA MONDIALE 00:40:48 00:01:19
6. MALORI Adriano 201 LAMPRE - ISD 00:40:48 00:01:19
8. EVANS Cadel 71 BMC RACING TEAM 00:40:49 00:01:20
9. THOMAS Geraint 126 SKY PROCYCLING 00:41:08 00:01:39
10. FARIA DA COSTA Rui Alberto 163 MOVISTAR TEAM 00:41:17 00:01:48

 

[Galic Ho]

I'm reading some funny *** on this thread! Age is a factor! 2008, 2009 and other non events mean a great deal. Horsesh1t people. Pull your heads out of your arses!

It's form after 20 stages in this and only this GT that count. Ability to descend and transfer power over the course distance count as well. Evans wasn't a contender in 2009 or 2010, nor was he racing the Schleck's in 2008. Nice try geniuses. Those results show little. Recent form is the indicator along with fatigue and general strength this race. So what is known?

Andy Schleck attacked on stage 18. Stage 19 he followed Contador. Evans overall on both those stages climbed far better than Andy Schleck. Franck was toast yesterday. He can thank his lucky stars Andy stuck with him...why is beyond me. Evans looked far stronger than both the Schlecks. Why? Because they didn't do a damn thing to him on Alpe d'Huez. No, they couldn't do a damn thing to him. Evans played them really, really well. The second best climber in the world couldn't drop a diesel. Sorry people, best climber all round this Tour was...Evans. That reveals a great deal about form and fatigue. If Andy had of smoked it yesterday, I'd think Evans was in trouble tonight. Heck at the base of the Alpe, Evans attacked everyone and it wasn't the Schleck's who pulled him back it was others. That's one thing in Evans favour...looks less fatigued.

What chrono abilities have the contenders recently shown? Evans was at 80% at the Dauphine. That's scary, given Andy has been crap at other races. Note Bjarne Riis said it was telling in the TTT that the Schlecks' didn't take pulls. We have the Schleck's dad saying they can't win. We have reports of Franck crying into his wifes arms. Then we have Andy remaining positive. Contradiction? You bet. Every contender remains positive when dumped with the current scenario. Nobody lays down and says "I'm beat" least of all to the cameras. They spin it, they bluff. Duh! Hitch, don't play poker champ, you clearly can't spot a tell despite it being beyond obvious.

I thought after stage 18 if Andy had 1:30 and Franck 2:30, Cadel would be in serious trouble. They don't. Taking Clinic matters into some consideration, this Tour appears cleaner. Fatigue of riders suggests as much as do the slower Alpe times from yesterday. I think the Schlecks' and Leopard Trek will have Franck slow to give Andy a marker to chase. I think this will open the door for AC, but I don't know if he can bridge that gap...he is very, very tired. His previous Tour rides don't mean much in light of this. This leaves the Evans vs Andy duel. Given everything I've seen so far, knowing Evans can time trial like Menchov has in the past, I don't think he'll pull 2:30 out on Andy, but 1:30-2:00 would be my guess. Cadel to win the Tour by 20-30 secs at minimum. Cadel did the majority of work in his TTT. He was on fire. He's closed down every break almost single handedly. Strongest rider all race. I'm quite confident he can do this comfortably.

Get the tissues people. Somebody will be in tears. Lemond and Fignon's record should be safe...unless of course Andy performs a miracle, which of course, is possible. But I think not. If he could have it would have occured yesterday and he'd have gotten more time. Another tell in the past has been that Evans has been on the back foot and faltered against his GC rivals before the final ITT. Never happened this year. Another sign his form is the strongest and to suggest he is in the box seat.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'm reading some funny *** on this thread! Age is a factor! 2008, 2009 and other non events mean a great deal. Horsesh1t people. Pull your heads out of your arses!

It's form after 20 stages in this and only this GT that count. Ability to descend and transfer power over the course distance count as well. Evans wasn't a contender in 2009 or 2010, nor was he racing the Schleck's in 2008. Nice try geniuses. Those results show little. Recent form is the indicator along with fatigue and general strength this race. So what is known?

Andy Schleck attacked on stage 18. Stage 19 he followed Contador. Evans overall on both those stages climbed far better than Andy Schleck. Franck was toast yesterday. He can thank his lucky stars Andy stuck with him...why is beyond me. Evans looked far stronger than both the Schlecks. Why? Because they didn't do a damn thing to him on Alpe d'Huez. No, they couldn't do a damn thing to him. Evans played them really, really well. The second best climber in the world couldn't drop a diesel. Sorry people, best climber all round this Tour was...Evans. That reveals a great deal about form and fatigue. If Andy had of smoked it yesterday, I'd think Evans was in trouble tonight. Heck at the base of the Alpe, Evans attacked everyone and it wasn't the Schleck's who pulled him back it was others. That's one thing in Evans favour...looks less fatigued.

What chrono abilities have the contenders recently shown? Evans was at 80% at the Dauphine. That's scary, given Andy has been crap at other races. Note Bjarne Riis said it was telling in the TTT that the Schlecks' didn't take pulls. We have the Schleck's dad saying they can't win. We have reports of Franck crying into his wifes arms. Then we have Andy remaining positive. Contradiction? You bet. Every contender remains positive when dumped with the current scenario. Nobody lays down and says "I'm beat" least of all to the cameras. They spin it, they bluff. Duh! Hitch, don't play poker champ, you clearly can't spot a tell despite it being beyond obvious.

I thought after stage 18 if Andy had 1:30 and Franck 2:30, Cadel would be in serious trouble. They don't. Taking Clinic matters into some consideration, this Tour appears cleaner. Fatigue of riders suggests as much as do the slower Alpe times from yesterday. I think the Schlecks' and Leopard Trek will have Franck slow to give Andy a marker to chase. I think this will open the door for AC, but I don't know if he can bridge that gap...he is very, very tired. His previous Tour rides don't mean much in light of this. This leaves the Evans vs Andy duel. Given everything I've seen so far, knowing Evans can time trial like Menchov has in the past, I don't think he'll pull 2:30 out on Andy, but 1:30-2:00 would be my guess. Cadel to win the Tour by 20-30 secs at minimum. Cadel did the majority of work in his TTT. He was on fire. He's closed down every break almost single handedly. Strongest rider all race. I'm quite confident he can do this comfortably.

Get the tissues people. Somebody will be in tears. Lemond and Fignon's record should be safe...unless of course Andy performs a miracle, which of course, is possible. But I think not. If he could have it would have occured yesterday and he'd have gotten more time. Another tell in the past has been that Evans has been on the back foot and faltered against his GC rivals before the final ITT. Never happened this year. Another sign his form is the strongest and to suggest he is in the box seat.

Hooh hah! Galic Ho ftw!!!! - Totally agree!

 

[its like that]

I'm reading some funny *** on this thread! Age is a factor! 2008, 2009 and other non events mean a great deal. Horsesh1t people. Pull your heads out of your arses!

It's form after 20 stages in this and only this GT that count. Ability to descend and transfer power over the course distance count as well. Evans wasn't a contender in 2009 or 2010, nor was he racing the Schleck's in 2008. Nice try geniuses. Those results show little. Recent form is the indicator along with fatigue and general strength this race. So what is known?

Andy Schleck attacked on stage 18. Stage 19 he followed Contador. Evans overall on both those stages climbed far better than Andy Schleck. Franck was toast yesterday. He can thank his lucky stars Andy stuck with him...why is beyond me. Evans looked far stronger than both the Schlecks. Why? Because they didn't do a damn thing to him on Alpe d'Huez. No, they couldn't do a damn thing to him. Evans played them really, really well. The second best climber in the world couldn't drop a diesel. Sorry people, best climber all round this Tour was...Evans. That reveals a great deal about form and fatigue. If Andy had of smoked it yesterday, I'd think Evans was in trouble tonight. Heck at the base of the Alpe, Evans attacked everyone and it wasn't the Schleck's who pulled him back it was others. That's one thing in Evans favour...looks less fatigued.

What chrono abilities have the contenders recently shown? Evans was at 80% at the Dauphine. That's scary, given Andy has been crap at other races. Note Bjarne Riis said it was telling in the TTT that the Schlecks' didn't take pulls. We have the Schleck's dad saying they can't win. We have reports of Franck crying into his wifes arms. Then we have Andy remaining positive. Contradiction? You bet. Every contender remains positive when dumped with the current scenario. Nobody lays down and says "I'm beat" least of all to the cameras. They spin it, they bluff. Duh! Hitch, don't play poker champ, you clearly can't spot a tell despite it being beyond obvious.

I thought after stage 18 if Andy had 1:30 and Franck 2:30, Cadel would be in serious trouble. They don't. Taking Clinic matters into some consideration, this Tour appears cleaner. Fatigue of riders suggests as much as do the slower Alpe times from yesterday. I think the Schlecks' and Leopard Trek will have Franck slow to give Andy a marker to chase. I think this will open the door for AC, but I don't know if he can bridge that gap...he is very, very tired. His previous Tour rides don't mean much in light of this. This leaves the Evans vs Andy duel. Given everything I've seen so far, knowing Evans can time trial like Menchov has in the past, I don't think he'll pull 2:30 out on Andy, but 1:30-2:00 would be my guess. Cadel to win the Tour by 20-30 secs at minimum. Cadel did the majority of work in his TTT. He was on fire. He's closed down every break almost single handedly. Strongest rider all race. I'm quite confident he can do this comfortably.

Get the tissues people. Somebody will be in tears. Lemond and Fignon's record should be safe...unless of course Andy performs a miracle, which of course, is possible. But I think not. If he could have it would have occured yesterday and he'd have gotten more time. Another tell in the past has been that Evans has been on the back foot and faltered against his GC rivals before the final ITT. Never happened this year. Another sign his form is the strongest and to suggest he is in the box seat.

Best post I have read in here. Lot of blind people still fail to see that Evans has proved he has been the strongest man of the peloton over the 3 weeks. He will ice it off with the yellow jersey today.

 

[Galic Ho]

Hooh hah! Galic Ho ftw!!!! - Totally agree!

The person in the room watching last nights stage got really heated with me when I started yelling "Crush him Cadel." I was called a typical Aussie bogan, shock horror, by a relative also Australian. I think Evans played it super smart the last few days. Didn't chase Andy on Stage 18 but when everyone else couldn't he still stole two minutes on the Galibier. Then Franck tanked the next day. Andy's major time gain, the one minute, was the work of Monfort and Devenyns. 1v1, this Tour, Cadel has handled Andy everytime, comfortably. Move onto Cadel's terrain with a practice run on it in the bank...writing is on the wall. Regardless of what happens, Evans IMO has been the strongest rider this Tour. Sheesh, if the rules on stage 1 hadn't been so whack, Evans would have a comfortable lead as it is. I'll be keeping those times you said at the back of my mind. 38 secs by the 27km time check. If he's as good as I think, he should already have the minute by then.

Cadel's been without a doubt awesome this whole Tour. If Franck is caught by Andy then it's quite possible Tommy V will be caught by Cadel. That's a positive sign for the race. I think your podium places are spot on. Contador could be on the podium. Franck and Tommy V need to ride like maniacs as well. Cunego needs to ride like a maniac. Lots of people need to pull out the chrono of their lifes tonight.

 

[greenedge]

I agree with everything said Gallic Ho just could not be bothered to say it in as many words. Could TJVG win maybe or surprise. Thor and EBH to ride good rides as well.

 

[Mellow Velo]

They are going 6 mins after each other. I don't think the tdf will be decided on that.

No, you have missed my badly made point.
Simply that if there is a shower of rain towards the end, I was thinking that it would favour Cadel and the gap could increase, as into Gap.

Wiggins was well ahead of Martin, at the Dauphine 2nd CP, but lost about 15 seconds and the stage on the final, wet descsent in Grenoble.

15 seconds, late on, could be the difference between winning and losing.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

According to the infoI have the ITT starts in15 mins time.