Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

I'm 99% sure you're wrong. And you said it like it's a fact.

Let's see about that 1 % in a few weeks.

You'll see in less than a week.

 

[barmaher]

Seems like we know of five interesting finishes in the first week.

Stage 2
Stage to Super Lorian
Stage to Payolle, which is either a drag of a climb like the stage in the Route du Sud last year, or a bit more climbing followed by a descent into Payollle
Stage to Loudenvielle
Stage to Andorra

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-

That has the makings of a good week, in my book. I think the stage into Limoges will be hilly near the end, so we are looking at a really good first week hopefully.

The second week stage into Revel looks nice, then we have Ventoux, Culoz, the ITT and they can't mess up the stage into Bern.

Again, a nice looking Week 2.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Stage to Payolle, which is either a drag of a climb like the stage in the Route du Sud last year, or a bit more climbing followed by a descent into Payollle

I think it will be the former.

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/46964/el-tour-tindra-final-detapa-a-vallnord
Vallnord/sector Pal or Arcalís for the finish in Andorra (with a high climb before, says the article).

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

third week according to Velowire:

R2 Tues. 19 July 2016 rest day in Bern (CH)
17 Wed. 20 July 2016 Bern (CH) Finhaut-Emosson (CH) (MTF)
18 Thu. 21 July 2016 Sallanches - Megève
19 Fri. 22 July 2016 Albertville - Saint-Gervais (Le Bettex) (MTF)
20 Sat. 23 July 2016 Saint-Gervais - Morzine
21 Sun. 24 July 2016 Chantilly - Paris Champs-Elysées


Looks to be reasonably sure at this point. Note that Sallanches - Megève will be a stage in line, according to Thomas's sources. No TT.

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

third week according to Velowire:

R2 Tues. 19 July 2016 rest day in Bern (CH)
17 Wed. 20 July 2016 Bern (CH) Finhaut-Emosson (CH) (MTF)
18 Thu. 21 July 2016 Sallanches - Megève
19 Fri. 22 July 2016 Albertville - Saint-Gervais (Le Bettex) (MTF)
20 Sat. 23 July 2016 Saint-Gervais - Morzine
21 Sun. 24 July 2016 Chantilly - Paris Champs-Elysées


Looks to be reasonably sure at this point. Note that Sallanches - Megève will be a stage in line, according to Thomas's sources. No TT.

Good.
Now put Joux Plane before Morzine and an ITT it could be great

 

[Gigs_98]

I'm not overly impressed by this final week. Finhaut-Emosson should be a good stage if Forclaz comes first, but its the 1st of 4 mountain stages in a row so I doubt there will be a lot of action.

No idea about Sallanches-Megeve, because these two towns are so near to each other that nothing else than a mtt would make sense. It would be like to say there is a stage from Bourg-d'Oisans to Alp d'Huez, but its not a MTT.

IMO Saint Gervais isnt the best finish too. I mean there is the Cote des Amerands but that one is really short and has no real descent so its actually like a single climb stage. Tbh passes like Roselend, Saisies or Croix Fry are pretty likely, but they would be too far a way to make a difference. At least the mtf isnt too hard to destroy every action on the days before. Btw, but do you think its possible that we will simply see the final climb twice, because there is a second street up there and there would be hardly any flat between the descent and the second ascent. That would suddenly make the stage much more interesting.

Morzine is without any doubt a good finish but the Joux Plane has the problem of too much flat before the climb. IMO Joux Plane - Joux Verte - Morzine would be the best possible option. Ramaz - Les Gets - Joux Verte - Morzine would be good too, but I simply want to see the Joux Plane again. Ten years if I'm right. Thats too much for such a legend.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Re:

third week according to Velowire:

R2 Tues. 19 July 2016 rest day in Bern (CH)
17 Wed. 20 July 2016 Bern (CH) Finhaut-Emosson (CH) (MTF)
18 Thu. 21 July 2016 Sallanches - Megève
19 Fri. 22 July 2016 Albertville - Saint-Gervais (Le Bettex) (MTF)
20 Sat. 23 July 2016 Saint-Gervais - Morzine
21 Sun. 24 July 2016 Chantilly - Paris Champs-Elysées


Looks to be reasonably sure at this point. Note that Sallanches - Megève will be a stage in line, according to Thomas's sources. No TT.

Bern - Emosson seems to be a straightforward one-climb stage (a 1-2 punch with Forclaz really). Can't see ASO going for anything different before Martigny as Bern.

Sallanches-Megéve is an interesting one as they're about 10km. If there's going to be some sort of mountain TT it's going to be this stage as it's uphill all the way. They could enlargen this distance by using some of the surrounding roads and make it half flat (think the Flumserberg TT Costa won in Suisse but less steep).

Albertville - Le Bettex...We're probably gonna see Saisies/Bisanne on this one (who am I kidding, it's Saisies). No Cormet de Roselend unless they head south and loop around Bourg St. Maurice. I can see them going Saisies, Aravis, Colombiere before flat to Saint Gervais. I need to trace this one...

I'm wondering about the Morzine stage. Surely they'd want the last mountain stage to be a multi-mountain sort of affair. Maybe they'll do a Joux Verte loop into Morzine, I just hope they don't skip Joux-Plane for Les Gets as it's been rumoured...

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

third week according to Velowire:

R2 Tues. 19 July 2016 rest day in Bern (CH)
17 Wed. 20 July 2016 Bern (CH) Finhaut-Emosson (CH) (MTF)
18 Thu. 21 July 2016 Sallanches - Megève
19 Fri. 22 July 2016 Albertville - Saint-Gervais (Le Bettex) (MTF)
20 Sat. 23 July 2016 Saint-Gervais - Morzine
21 Sun. 24 July 2016 Chantilly - Paris Champs-Elysées


Looks to be reasonably sure at this point. Note that Sallanches - Megève will be a stage in line, according to Thomas's sources. No TT.

Bern - Emosson seems to be a straightforward one-climb stage (a 1-2 punch with Forclaz really). Can't see ASO going for anything different before Martigny as Bern.

Sallanches-Megéve is an interesting one as they're about 10km. If there's going to be some sort of mountain TT it's going to be this stage as it's uphill all the way. They could enlargen this distance by using some of the surrounding roads and make it half flat (think the Flumserberg TT Costa won in Suisse but less steep).

Albertville - Le Bettex...We're probably gonna see Saisies/Bisanne on this one (who am I kidding, it's Saisies). No Cormet de Roselend unless they head south and loop around Bourg St. Maurice. I can see them going Saisies, Aravis, Colombiere before flat to Saint Gervais. I need to trace this one...

I'm wondering about the Morzine stage. Surely they'd want the last mountain stage to be a multi-mountain sort of affair. Maybe they'll do a Joux Verte loop into Morzine, I just hope they don't skip Joux-Plane for Les Gets as it's been rumoured...

1.) I wouldnt call Emosson a one climb stage. The descent after Forclaz isnt long but it is long enough to call these two climbs and not one

2.) Why don't yo think they will use the Roselend, but Aravis - Colombiere?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

Sallanches-Megéve is an interesting one as they're about 10km. If there's going to be some sort of mountain TT it's going to be this stage as it's uphill all the way. They could enlargen this distance by using some of the surrounding roads and make it half flat (think the Flumserberg TT Costa won in Suisse but less steep).

Not a TT even though they're only 10kms apart, according to Thomas. He seems to be sure that this will be a road stage. Could be a pointless breakaway stage with or without a steep finish, I'm guessing..

 

[roundabout]

The descent from Forclaz to the start of the climb to the dam is about 10km long.

And it's quite likely that in a bloc of 4 stages at least 1 of them would be a stage for breakaways already by design.

 

[Alexandre B.]

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/46966/el-tour-passara-per-beixalis-pero-no-pel-coll-de-la-gallina
Beixalís - Arcalís.

Don't show this to Libertine Seguros.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/46966/el-tour-passara-per-beixalis-pero-no-pel-coll-de-la-gallina
Beixalís - Arcalís.

Don't show this to Libertine Seguros.

At least Beixalis, thats already better than in 2009. However its still Arcalis so still meh

 

[Steven Roots]

Arcalis once again, and thats after Bonaigua+Canto.

Disappointment is not strong enough of a word to describe this.
After what the Vuelta showed us in Andorra last year, thats really looking ugly.

 

[dacooley]

arcalis was too obvious since first mention about andorra to feel any disappointment

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

arcalis was too obvious since first mention about andorra to feel any disappointment

I'm actually somewhat surprised that they will be climbing this one before:

Sky will want to drill this stage and that climb is a good place to start.

 

[Brullnux]

When is the presentation?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

When is the presentation?

Tuesday I believe.

 

[guncha]

Arcalis once again, and thats after Bonaigua+Canto.

Disappointment is not strong enough of a word to describe this.
After what the Vuelta showed us in Andorra last year, thats really looking ugly.

This TDF could have 4 stages in Pyrenees, Mont Ventoux, Culoz and 4 mountain stages after 2nd rest day which is 10 mountain stages in total. With such a mountainous route it does not really matter in which Andorra's ski station the stage will finish.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Arcalis once again, and thats after Bonaigua+Canto.

Disappointment is not strong enough of a word to describe this.
After what the Vuelta showed us in Andorra last year, thats really looking ugly.

This TDF could have 4 stages in Pyrenees, Mont Ventoux, Culoz and 4 mountain stages after 2nd rest day which is 10 mountain stages in total. With such a mountainous route it does not really matter in which Andorra's ski station the stage will finish.

The stage that starts in Andorra doesn't finish in the mountains and the Lac de Payolle stage probably won't feature any cols.

However, this would suggest that they consider the Super Lioran stage to be a mountain stage:
https://twitter.com/letour/status/654333261536194560

Puy Mary will almost certainly feature. I don't know if they have the balls to include the descent towards the Col du Perthus after what happened the last time, though. They may favor the other, safer descent, which would make the stage less interesting.

 

[rghysens]

IMO Saint Gervais isnt the best finish too. I mean there is the Cote des Amerands but that one is really short and has no real descent so its actually like a single climb stage. Tbh passes like Roselend, Saisies or Croix Fry are pretty likely, but they would be too far a way to make a difference. At least the mtf isnt too hard to destroy every action on the days before. Btw, but do you think its possible that we will simply see the final climb twice, because there is a second street up there and there would be hardly any flat between the descent and the second ascent. That would suddenly make the stage much more interesting.

In a best case scenario we get Cote du Cordon (4.5km @ 8%), followed by 5km descent, cote du Haut Combloux (7km @ 7%) and 11km descent right before le Bettex. That would be decent. But the recently discovered love for double climbs of ASO could mean a double climb of le Bettex.

 

[roundabout]

I can't really think of double climbs (on 1 stage) other than Alp d'Huez in 2013 in recent years.

 

[Kwibus]

So the dissapointment arrives on tuesday.

I try to prepare for the worst.

 

[amih77]

Why does Arcalis MTF considered to be such a fail?

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

So the dissapointment arrives on tuesday.

I try to prepare for the worst.

I am very much in the same mindset.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Why does Arcalis MTF considered to be such a fail?

Imo it all depends on what's before Arcalis.
Besides that it's not very creative.