Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[Gigs_98]

Re:

So the dissapointment arrives on tuesday.

I try to prepare for the worst.

The rumors are pretty good, but yeah, they will probably manage to make the worst out of it.

 

[jens_attacks]

Re:

Why does Arcalis MTF considered to be such a fail?

I like it personally. Anything that remembers der kaiser is awesome.

 

[yaco]

Doesn't matter how good the route is - The Drama Queens will take over this forum.

 

[dacooley]

rather a good parcours costs nothing if it is not backed up with really good racing. eventually, any theories and beautiful profiles are just emotions of foretaste that has a minimum to do with the way one or another stage unfolds. we can get a monstrous action on arcalis and see nothing on mortirolo / joux plan under certain racing circumstances so a route is not a thing to over-dramatize.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Doesn't matter how good the route is - The Drama Queens will take over this forum.

Well said, I feel exactly the same way.

 

[pastronef]

Re: Re:

Doesn't matter how good the route is - The Drama Queens will take over this forum.

Well said, I feel exactly the same way.

+1
the rumors look good for next year
but yes, seems like complaining about the Tour is à la mode

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Doesn't matter how good the route is - The Drama Queens will take over this forum.

We can talk about that after the presentation. At the moment the route seems to be the best for years, but at the end everything could look very different. Of the likely 2 pyrenees stages one will be a rather lame mtf and the other one could have a flat section at the end. Moreover we know hardly anything about the alps stages, so there is still a lot of potential that some of the stages will be lame too.
You know, we wouldnt be so pessimistic if the routes of the last few years hadn't been so bad. Last year they made 2 great stages I would normally praise, but they became unnecessary, because the aso decided to put 2 short stages with hard mtf's on stage 19 and 20. 2009 they managed to make 2 pyrenees stages which were completely unnecessary for the gc and the one important stage had a horrible design. 2013 the aso made one alp stage with a downhill finish but it was between two HC mtf's so nothing happened. 2014 the first half also had a great design but somehow they thought that a short mountain stage with a long flat section before the mtf makes a perfect last mountain stage. You see, the aso made lots of good stages, but hardly any route of the last decade didnt have a few stages which were either extremely bad or so horrible placed that they had the potential to destroy the whole racing before.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Why does Arcalis MTF considered to be such a fail?

I like it personally. Anything that remembers der kaiser is awesome.

I'm calling it right now, Geraint and Froome will have their Ullrich/Riis moment durning that stage and Geraint will crush everyone!

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Doesn't matter how good the route is - The Drama Queens will take over this forum.

Well said, I feel exactly the same way.

+1
the rumors look good for next year
but yes, seems like complaining about the Tour is à la mode

I kinda liked last years course, but I just think they terribly messed up that multi mountain stage in the pyrenees.
In the end it's the riders that make the race. What just frustates me a lot is the lack of creativity or the obvious stage that won't do sh*t while it is there intention.
We also need more descent finishes... not easy straight road descent finishes, but atleast a bit challenging.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Doesn't matter how good the route is - The Drama Queens will take over this forum.

We can talk about that after the presentation. At the moment the route seems to be the best for years, but at the end everything could look very different. Of the likely 2 pyrenees stages one will be a rather lame mtf and the other one could have a flat section at the end. Moreover we know hardly anything about the alps stages, so there is still a lot of potential that some of the stages will be lame too.
You know, we wouldnt be so pessimistic if the routes of the last few years hadn't been so bad. Last year they made 2 great stages I would normally praise, but they became unnecessary, because the aso decided to put 2 short stages with hard mtf's on stage 19 and 20. 2009 they managed to make 2 pyrenees stages which were completely unnecessary for the gc and the one important stage had a horrible design. 2013 the aso made one alp stage with a downhill finish but it was between two HC mtf's so nothing happened. 2014 the first half also had a great design but somehow they thought that a short mountain stage with a long flat section before the mtf makes a perfect last mountain stage. You see, the aso made lots of good stages, but hardly any route of the last decade didnt have a few stages which were either extremely bad or so horrible placed that they had the potential to destroy the whole racing before.

So you dont think 2013 was a good route? I for one felt it was a super route. Total amount of 90 km ITT and TTT and a lot of good mountain stages imo. Imagine, fx., if Valverde and Quintana had went for it after Ax-3 when Froome was in trouble. Perfect stage after the MTF, but they choose not to do anything about it in the end. And lets not fool ourselves with the stage over Madeleine and Glandon (?), it was a very good stage, but the GC was settled. Yes, there WAS a MTF after, but had the GC been close, it would have been a good stage.

Im simply just getting annoyed at all the way too pessimistic views in here. So much thrash talk. But I don't think anything ever will satisfy some ppl in here when it comes to ASO and as someone said, it just seems in and cool to to thrash them at every opportunity

 

[damian13ster]

I won't even consider giving this route more than 3/10 if it doesnt have at least 70km of ITT.
Not after this year's route

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

Why does Arcalis MTF considered to be such a fail?

Arcalis has a really negative aura that really impedes attacks; it also, apart from the first kilometre after El Serrat, is a very consistent climb with few real ramps that serve as a platform to attack on. This means it mostly suits tempo climbing, especially in a very important race (eg the Tour) where teams like to keep things under control at least early in the race. It also comes after Bonaigua, a perfectly good but also consistent climb, and Cantó, which is long and multi-stepped but never especially difficult. Beixalis is a good addition as otherwise it would all be pure diesel grinders' climbs which would likely leave us with a race of attrition and only a couple of kilometres of real action, like in 2009. 1997 didn't see any attacks per se, it was a pure tempo grind, it's just that the tempo Ullrich was tapping out was biblical which, after 240+km, left a trail of destruction. Beixalis' steep ramps in the middle will hopefully rid us of a few domestiques and mean that more riders have to go it alone later on which should make things more likely to be exciting. Also on the plus side, it's likely to be the last day in the Pyrenées and with a rest day following, meaning riders will probably have more reason to make the stage meaningful.

In smaller races Arcalis can be perfectly good, however the Volta a Catalunya (before it moved back to March making a lot of the higher altitude summits harder to use) has had its biggest success using the climb as an MTT, a tactic the Vuelta has also utilized.

But also as Kwibus noted, it's not very creative, and given Andorra has now paved two serious passes, creating a multitude of new options for Andorra stages, it's disappointing to see them go for the same old same old given that in the last ten years the Vuelta has used 5 different Andorran summits (Arcalis '07, Naturlandia La Rabassa '08, Pal '10, Canolich '12 and '13, Els Cortals d'Encamp '15) and there are others yet that could be used (Llac d'Engolasters, Arinsal). It's about which ski area is paying, I know that, but Arcalis is part of the Vallnord ski area, which also pays for Pal or Arinsal.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

Why does Arcalis MTF considered to be such a fail?

Arcalis has a really negative aura that really impedes attacks; it also, apart from the first kilometre after El Serrat, is a very consistent climb with few real ramps that serve as a platform to attack on. This means it mostly suits tempo climbing, especially in a very important race (eg the Tour) where teams like to keep things under control at least early in the race. It also comes after Bonaigua, a perfectly good but also consistent climb, and Cantó, which is long and multi-stepped but never especially difficult. Beixalis is a good addition as otherwise it would all be pure diesel grinders' climbs which would likely leave us with a race of attrition and only a couple of kilometres of real action, like in 2009. 1997 didn't see any attacks per se, it was a pure tempo grind, it's just that the tempo Ullrich was tapping out was biblical which, after 240+km, left a trail of destruction. Beixalis' steep ramps in the middle will hopefully rid us of a few domestiques and mean that more riders have to go it alone later on which should make things more likely to be exciting. Also on the plus side, it's likely to be the last day in the Pyrenées and with a rest day following, meaning riders will probably have more reason to make the stage meaningful.

In smaller races Arcalis can be perfectly good, however the Volta a Catalunya (before it moved back to March making a lot of the higher altitude summits harder to use) has had its biggest success using the climb as an MTT, a tactic the Vuelta has also utilized.

But also as Kwibus noted, it's not very creative, and given Andorra has now paved two serious passes, creating a multitude of new options for Andorra stages, it's disappointing to see them go for the same old same old given that in the last ten years the Vuelta has used 5 different Andorran summits (Arcalis '07, Naturlandia La Rabassa '08, Pal '10, Canolich '12 and '13, Els Cortals d'Encamp '15) and there are others yet that could be used (Llac d'Engolasters, Arinsal). It's about which ski area is paying, I know that, but Arcalis is part of the Vallnord ski area, which also pays for Pal or Arinsal.

Pal would have obviously been better as it can be linked without much false flat, but no info on whether or not ASO desperately wanted the finish to be in Arcalis. I doubt that was the case, or it probably would have been included in the article.

What we do know is that ASO ditched Gallina as an additional climb, despite Andorra's wishes, in order to not make the stage too hard, given that they prefer a more backloaded Tour de France. This shouldn't be news to anyone, so the feigned(?) disappointment by some people in this thread is a bit much. Bonaigua and Canto were always a given as they had to be included to go from start to finish. Add Arcalis and this is about the best anyone could have hoped for.

 

[sir fly]

I suppose the hosts have offered the roads through areas that need commercial exposure. Aerial shots carry more value for hosts than the motorcycle images. So, keep it boring on the ground, through the tempo profile, to give enough space (or is it time?) to the wings.
Pretty much like this year's stage through the Gorges du Tarn.

Bagnères-de-Luchon seems to be the finish point of the previously rumoured stage to Loudenvielle.
Logical choice considering the transfer to Spain, and I suppose Peyresourde will be the final climb on the elongated parcours.
Superbagnères finish would be too much for the ASO, I'd say.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

I suppose the hosts have offered the roads through areas that need commercial exposure. Aerial shots carry more value for hosts than the motorcycle images. So, keep it boring on the ground, through the tempo profile, to give enough space (or is it time?) to the wings.
Pretty much like this year's stage through the Gorges du Tarn.

Yeah, same for the pointless detours in the Maurienne valley this year, or before Pla d'Adet last year.

 

[valentius borealis]

Re: Re:

I suppose the hosts have offered the roads through areas that need commercial exposure. Aerial shots carry more value for hosts than the motorcycle images. So, keep it boring on the ground, through the tempo profile, to give enough space (or is it time?) to the wings.
Pretty much like this year's stage through the Gorges du Tarn.

Yeah, same for the pointless detours in the Maurienne valley this year, or before Pla d'Adet last year.

They had the same pointless Maurienne Valley detour in 2012 as well.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2015/10/19/2200415-le-lac-de-payolle-dans-un-decor-de-reve.html

^ Aspin before Lac de Payolle? Nice. The Col de Beyrède descent was deemed unsafe - no surprise there - because it is.

Looks like the Tour could have a record(?) number of descent finishes. Aspin, Peyresourde, Grand Colombier, Joux Plane (?)

Bagnères-de-Luchon seems to be the finish point of the previously rumoured stage to Loudenvielle.
Logical choice considering the transfer to Spain, and I suppose Peyresourde will be the final climb on the elongated parcours.
Superbagnères finish would be too much for the ASO, I'd say.

Yeah, Tourmalet and Peyresourde will almost certainly feature. I hope they have enough sense to include Azet as the penultimate climb. Though Tourmalet - Aspin - Peyresourde would be more typical.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Re:

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2015/10/19/2200415-le-lac-de-payolle-dans-un-decor-de-reve.html

^ Aspin before Lac de Payolle? Nice. The Col de Beyrède descent was deemed unsafe - no surprise there - because it is.

Looks like the Tour could have a record(?) number of descent finishes. Aspin, Peyresourde, Grand Colombier, Joux Plane (?)

Bagnères-de-Luchon seems to be the finish point of the previously rumoured stage to Loudenvielle.
Logical choice considering the transfer to Spain, and I suppose Peyresourde will be the final climb on the elongated parcours.
Superbagnères finish would be too much for the ASO, I'd say.

Yeah, Tourmalet and Peyresourde will almost certainly feature. I hope they have enough sense to include Azet as the penultimate climb. Though Tourmalet - Aspin - Peyresourde would be more typical.

If they're using Aspin for the Payolle finish we could see Ancizan used in this Luchon stage which does a better job leading into Azet...Hm. Had't heard of this Col de Beyrède before. Nasty bit of road!

I wouldn't mind the classic Pau - Luchon with Aubisque, Tourmalet, Aspin, Peyresourde though. I figure ASO would consider that too much for a first mountain stage. Even if you drop the Aubisque it still looks above average difficulty for the early TdF.

 

[railxmig]

Re: Re:

I suppose the hosts have offered the roads through areas that need commercial exposure. Aerial shots carry more value for hosts than the motorcycle images. So, keep it boring on the ground, through the tempo profile, to give enough space (or is it time?) to the wings.
Pretty much like this year's stage through the Gorges du Tarn.

Yeah, same for the pointless detours in the Maurienne valley this year, or before Pla d'Adet last year.

They had the same pointless Maurienne Valley detour in 2012 as well.

If you have in mind the flat between Madeleine and Glandon then maybe I have a theory explaining this flat.

In between those two ascents there is A43 highway. If you want to go the shortest way, the D927 bridge on l'Arc, you must cross by a A43 highway exit. Maybe closing this exit for max half an hour is too cost-eating. Tour prefers to use the D75E viaduct that not only doesn't interact with the A43 highway, but doesn't interact with adjacent D1006 nationale as a bonus. Maybe going through these secondary roads is less costly than cutting off much more important roads. Still though, the mystery behind the 2014 flat between Chaussy and Glandon is a mystery for me. Maybe RCS forced them to sack monkey balls?

Then there remains a question of using the D1006 nationale down to Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne and the 2010 stage to this town. Apparently ASO doesn't seem to bother with the highway exits up to Freney (close to Modane). I dunno, maybe closing them is not as costly as the La Chambre one? If you go the 2011 way, then you need to close up only one exit, but this year they were forced to go through two exits and ASO didn't seem to have any bigger problems with that. Maybe I'm just dumb or use too much of simple logic, 'cause ASO seems to me having an alien logic.

In 2010 ASO didn't seem to bother with propably much more important highway exit in Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne. 2010 is 5 years from now, maybe something changed and that's why they were forced to find another road that doesn't disturb the exit (Chaussy/Montvernier D77).

Now back to the topic. I was analysing Lac de Payolle back in 2014 when Route du Sud had a finish there. There is some space just before Aspin (first serpentins) begins. I wasn't sure if there is enough space for Tour but back then I had designed two possibilities. One as a poor ones Mortirolo-Aprica combo: Tourmalet & Aubisque as Gavia. Second one as a proper Midi-Pyrenees mountain stage with Aspet-Mente-Portillon-Peyresourde-Azet-Ancizan. Knowing life, if Payolle actually will host a Tour finish, then it'll be just an uphill drag like in 2014.

I remember i evaluated 2012 Tour in my scale from 1 to 10 at 8/10. I chose such a high number because it had a lot of unorthodox ideas and it used quite a lot of narrow roads for Tour standards. I had pretty high hopes, that Tour did necessary reforms and that ASO begins to think about competing with Giro. Sadly then comes 2013 route where the only stage design i liked was the Embrun TT. The Le Grand-Bornand was nice on paper, but being squished between two hard MTFs didn't do any favours at all. Maybe if only Contador magically found '14 form or '13 Nibali ('14 Rolland even maybe?) was in the race but even then i doubt anything would happen there.

Seems like 2016 Tour might visit these unorthodox way of life with using only north Alps, Payolle and Culoz (!!). I would never expect that this basically village with no space for finish whatsoever would compete for being a finish to maybe one of the Tour's most crucial stage. And espetially if they will go from north then a Biche+Colombiere is a real possibility (Biche seems to be as narrow as Colombiere is so it doesn't seem about the road itself unless I missed some parts, where the surface is in too bad quality. Even if they will use Richemond or Bérentin I will be happy. Colombiere is pretty beasty in itself and a close finish plus next only hilly day to Bern (not a hard MTF!) might be enough for a proper race.

Sadly or not, the Sallanches - Megève seems to be a road stage even if it's asking for an MTT with Domancy and maybe even Côte 2000 drag. Otherwise they will have problems to not repeat itself, as these 3 stages will be clustered with each other. I wonder, when the 'great' times of split stages and no rest days will come back... $$$.

 

[May0maniac]

The 2014 Tour was pretty good, at least the first half of the race was great, so I was pretty dissapointed when I saw the route of the 2015 Tour, everything will be better than that. I hope that we'll get a decent route.

 

[Swifty's Cakes]

What time will letour website "accidentally" publish the route?

 

[Gigs_98]

Lac de Payolle stage including the Aspin? Holy s***, what is wrong with the aso. Why do they suddenly do epic stuff. This is how a first mountain stage has to look like. IMO it shouldnt be too difficult, and it shouldnt create too big time gaps. It should just sort out some riders so we don't have a situation in which 10 riders still act like the favorite (2011) and give the riders the possibility to attack and maybe also cause the one or other. And in addition there should be a very good fight for the stage which is normally more likely on a downhill finish than in a mtf.

Besides that its a downhill finish, followed by another downhill finish. The penultimate sunday will have a very difficult downhill finish and the last mountain stage WILL ALSO BE A DOWNHILL FINISH. Isn't that way too good for the aso? Tbh, I don't think the final route will look like this. It somehow seems to be too good for the aso, but the rumors this year are already more entertaining than the tour 2012.

ps: I hope that the luchon stage will really include azet, because if not, and the stage before will really include the aspin, the flat before the final climb will be quite long.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

We're being setup for a mega-disappointment here aren't we?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

We're being setup for a mega-disappointment here aren't we?

yes

 

[barmaher]

We need more ITT. Other than that, we're golden.