Tour de France 2016 route prediction

[veji11]

Re: Re:

Fair enough, but in the context of this very moutainous overall route, more is not better. We already have a very selective ending to the SuperLioran stage, the Bagnère de luchon stage is hard as hell, the Ventoux is horrible as always, and Forclaz-Finhaut will be a butchery. There was no need to go into hyperbole on the Culoz stage in this context. It makes for a different, very interesting stage, a real rollercoaster to begin with and an interesting set up to finish. A brilliant stage.

Actually, I agree that another extra-hard stage would have been a bit of an overkill, I just wish they had taken away difficulties in other stages.
For instance, I would have loved to see Bisannne with a finish in Mégève, without another hard MTF like Le Bettex, maybe with a flatter ITT, balanced by a harder side of Grand Colombier.
The flat bit is not a big problem, anyway, especially since it should not be a problem for attackers to send teammates up the road in the first part of the stage, with such a hilly start.

Well we agree then, indeed they could have gone for harder in the Colombier stage in exchange for making it a bit easier in other stages, but I suppose they didn't want the whole Ventoux/ITT/Colombier trifecta to crown the winner already I suppose. Balance was the issue I suppose.

 

[barmaher]

If they were to swap the first stage with an ITT of (say) 15km to 20km, I would be very happy. As it is, I think it is good.

Sprint stages will be 1, 3, 6, 11, 14 and 21.

I think stages 4, 10 and 16 will have hilly finishes or hills near the end.

 

[Bolder]

Megeve to Morzine should be awesome. Joux Plane is not the hardest col in the Alps, but bottom is very steep and narrow. The last few k's are flatter and might prevent big gaps. Descent to Morzine -- assuming they've fixed the washouts -- is nasty.

Overall on paper this is again Froome's race to lose. Over 50k of ITT.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

Megeve to Morzine should be awesome. Joux Plane is not the hardest col in the Alps, but bottom is very steep and narrow. The last few k's are flatter and might prevent big gaps. Descent to Morzine -- assuming they've fixed the washouts -- is nasty.

Overall on paper this is again Froome's race to lose. Over 50k of ITT.

The second TT doesn't favor him apart from the first few kms - if he'll fade as usual. Medium mountain TTs are Contador's thing, anyway.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Megeve to Morzine should be awesome. Joux Plane is not the hardest col in the Alps, but bottom is very steep and narrow. The last few k's are flatter and might prevent big gaps. Descent to Morzine -- assuming they've fixed the washouts -- is nasty.

Overall on paper this is again Froome's race to lose. Over 50k of ITT.

The second TT doesn't favor him apart from the first few kms - if he'll fade as usual. Medium mountain TTs are Contador's thing, anyway.

Agree. This route is pretty much perfect for Berto. He has the hilly ITT to take time on Quintana and he can limit his losses and maybe even gain time on Froome. Alberto said yesterday in an interview that very fast ITTs (i.e. flat) aren't his thing, he can't produce the necessary power. However TTs of 48/49 kph average are perfect for him, he said.
And if Froome fades as usual he will gain time on the MTT.

 

[bassano]

Re:

Megeve to Morzine should be awesome. Joux Plane is not the hardest col in the Alps, but bottom is very steep and narrow. The last few k's are flatter and might prevent big gaps. Descent to Morzine -- assuming they've fixed the washouts -- is nasty.

Overall on paper this is again Froome's race to lose. Over 50k of ITT.

Actually every other scenario is much more on paper Froome's race to lose then this
not too much TT and quite enough hard climb is one of few way he can be liquidated in last week
pyrenees stages without long uphill finish before andora prevent froome from getting time like St Martin this year because he will not attack 20 to go
and much lower posibility he will get time before mountains like on zeeland or Huy so much worse for him then this year I think

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Finally a Tour with nice downhill finishes and yet Nibali is apparently peaking for the Giro

 

[Matt92]

Re: Re:

Fair enough, but in the context of this very moutainous overall route, more is not better. We already have a very selective ending to the SuperLioran stage, the Bagnère de luchon stage is hard as hell, the Ventoux is horrible as always, and Forclaz-Finhaut will be a butchery. There was no need to go into hyperbole on the Culoz stage in this context. It makes for a different, very interesting stage, a real rollercoaster to begin with and an interesting set up to finish. A brilliant stage.

Actually, I agree that another extra-hard stage would have been a bit of an overkill, I just wish they had taken away difficulties in other stages.
For instance, I would have loved to see Bisannne with a finish in Mégève, without another hard MTF like Le Bettex, maybe with a flatter ITT, balanced by a harder side of Grand Colombier.
The flat bit is not a big problem, anyway, especially since it should not be a problem for attackers to send teammates up the road in the first part of the stage, with such a hilly start.

Well we agree then, indeed they could have gone for harder in the Colombier stage in exchange for making it a bit easier in other stages, but I suppose they didn't want the whole Ventoux/ITT/Colombier trifecta to crown the winner already I suppose. Balance was the issue I suppose.

Well, four Alpine stages seemed enough to leave the Tour open regardless .

I just noticed that the Bern stage seem to have some hills towards the end, I'll try to figure out what they are.

 

[malakassis]

good route. very hard! how many cols of HC and 1 is it?20? this seems way tougher than recent years. the winner needs to be there right from lioran to morzine..its ridicolously tough really!

 

[TilleyHat]

I'm interested in knowing which cities stage 11 (Carcassone-Montpellier) will pass through during the 2016 TdF. Anyone here who got detailed information regarding that specific stage?

 

[jsem94]

Surprisingly great route. Stage 15 is wonderful. Best route in a long time.

 

[Red Rick]

Looks decent on GT scale.

Whcih is incredible for Tour scale

 

[OlavEH]

Best Tour route at least since 2011. And one of the two best in the 15 years I've followed the Tour. There are definitely many positive aspects on next years route:
- Uphill finish on stage 2.
- First mountain stage already on stage 5.
- And then mountain stages on stage 7, 8, 9, 12, 14, 17, 19 and 20.
- Many new or (too) rarely used climbs like Grand Colombier, Bisanne, Emosson and Joux Plane

The negative is that there is to few km of ITT, the mountain stages are all fairly short and the (as alwavs) lack of 1 or 2 mountain stages of 200+ km and 5000 height meters.

Despite that, I think this is the first time I would rate a Tour route higher than the Giro.

 

[SeriousSam]

omg, a MTT. Disappointed it's not up Mont V but still. Any details on it?

Other than that, there should have been way more pancake flat TT. ASO clearly desperate for Quintana to win.

 

[barmaher]

I'm interested in knowing which cities stage 11 (Carcassone-Montpellier) will pass through during the 2016 TdF. Anyone here who got detailed information regarding that specific stage?

The letour website has a 3D flyover view of the Tour. I just looked at it, and it appears that the route will take a more inland route to Montpellier. So avoiding Beziers and any possible cross winds.

 

[Gigs_98]

Wow, not bad aso, not bad.
minus points:
- one flat ITT is just not enough in a route with so many mountain stages. Make the flat one lets say 10-20 kilometers longer and add a short one on stage 1 and its okay.
- stage 15 is probably still the best stage of the race but its still ridiculous that the don't descent directly to Culoz.
- 4 crucial stages in a row is meh
- IMO stage 20 is actually bad. The main problem of the joux plane is that there is a lot of flat between the colombiere and the JP, so they added the Ramaz in between, so there is even more flat?

plus points:
+ The first two stages look good with possible crosswind and a good first uphill finish on stage 2
+ 4 downhill finish is simply epic
+ Stage 8 is great
+ Same counts for stage 15
+ Same counts for stage 5
+ They made the best possible out of Arcalis
+ I really hoped for Forclaz - Emosson. That combo could become a classic (especially if the tour de suisse and the tour de romandie also start using it
+ they use Bisanne

All in all, great route. Just a pity that Nibali isnt there when the tour suddenly includes so many downhill finishes.

 

[Eshnar]

The ITT is not flat, Gigs.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

omg, a MTT. Disappointed it's not up Mont V but still. Any details on it?

Other than that, there should have been way more pancake flat TT. ASO clearly desperate for Quintana to win.

Vuelta stage 17, similar to the longer ITT in TdF next year. Which one of the following did not make it to the podium in the World Championship ITT:

4. Vasil KIRYIENKA, TEAM SKY, at 1:31
5. Jerome COPPEL, IAM CYCLING, at 1:32
6. Nairo Alexander QUINTANA ROJAS, MOVISTAR TEAM, at 1:33

Point is Quintana is not Purito, Froome is not Dumoulin (maybe I'm wrong) and ASO is not desperate for Quintana to win.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

The ITT is not flat, Gigs.

But, you know, its flatter than the other one and everybody knows what he means by it.

I quite like the route. We need a HC multi-mountain stage, but apart from that, its great imo

 

[barmaher]

The route into Limoges seems to loop round the east side of the city, to approach from the south. I would bet this will be a hilly finish.

Maybe even the uphill finish that Lance won on 20 years ago.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

The ITT is not flat, Gigs.

Yep, I just saw it. That definitely makes the route worse, but I still like it. Maybe you can add the lack of medium mountain stages to the list too, because besides stage 5 I don't see many.

 

[BigMac]

Stage 10 looks depressing.

Too much climbing on the first time-trial.

I like the Massif on stage 5.

 

[TilleyHat]

I'm interested in knowing which cities stage 11 (Carcassone-Montpellier) will pass through during the 2016 TdF. Anyone here who got detailed information regarding that specific stage?

The letour website has a 3D flyover view of the Tour. I just looked at it, and it appears that the route will take a more inland route to Montpellier. So avoiding Beziers and any possible cross winds.

As far as I can see from the 3D flyover I agree with you. So I take there is not any detailed information yet about cities they pass through. I'm curious since I will be staying in that area some 50 km north of Beziers during 12-15 July.

 

[barmaher]

Bern stage will be medium mountain, I guess. Route lacks them, though

 

[veji11]

Re:

Stage 10 looks depressing.

Why do you say that ? After 3 mountain stages, one has to eventually get out of the moutains no ?