Tour de France 2018 stage 9: Arras > Roubaix 156,5 km

[Koronin]

Re:

Would Sky chase Thomas and bring other gc`s in toll??
Who Benna+Ervitti will support if Bala is in front and landa+Nairo behind??

Erviti is assigned to Bala. Rojas is assigned to Nairo, and I understand Banna is assigned to Landa. This is for the cobbled stage. Soler and Amador are just being asked to find their way through the stage as best as possible.

 

[ClassicomanoLuigi]

This stage is significantly more difficult than 2010, 2014 and 2015. There is little chance of a bunch sprint. GVA, Sagan and Terpstra will go for the win dragging Nibali, Fuglsang, Dumoulin and Thomas with. GC riders will be distanced. The question is who will they be.

Dan Martin to be finished-off by this stage because the timing of his hard crash was very unfortunate. To be already in pain and then beaten-up more on the cobbles, he will lose more time

Quintana to lose more time, leaving Valverde looking better for GC for Movistar. Or maybe Landa

Geraint Thomas, cannot see him hanging with Quickstep and BMC, will lose time

 

[thehog]

This stage is significantly more difficult than 2010, 2014 and 2015. There is little chance of a bunch sprint. GVA, Sagan and Terpstra will go for the win dragging Nibali, Fuglsang, Dumoulin and Thomas with. GC riders will be distanced. The question is who will they be.

Dan Martin to be finished-off by this stage because the timing of his hard crash was very unfortunate. To be already in pain and then beaten-up more on the cobbles, he will lose more time

Quintana to lose more time, leaving Valverde looking better for GC for Movistar. Or maybe Landa

Geraint Thomas, cannot see him hanging with Quickstep and BMC, will lose time

Agreed Thomas is not what he used to be on cobbles, he is likely to crash. Also you can’t really do the Sky train thing on cobbled sectors, doesn’t work.

 

[Koronin]

Predictions Quickstep is here to go stage hunting. I expect them to go all in and rip the race apart if at all possible. Slipstream's best cobbled riders have said they will be protecting Uran and not going after the stage win. It's like Van Avermaet will be required to stay with Porte as well. No idea what Sky's intentions are with Thomas. As for the GC guys Nibali and Valverde has the best chance to do something as they both have shown they can ride the cobbles. Quintana and Froome are likely to struggle for different reasons. Dumoulin MIGHT be able to do something just do his weight. Bardet will likely struggle. Martin, esp with this crash, is likely to struggle. Fuglsang -- don't know enough about how he can handle the cobbles. Landa has hardly ridding on cobbles and could struggle. Porte is likely to struggle. Quickstep really is doing more stage hunting and Jungels will be on his own mostly for GC if he tries to go after it, however he should be fine on the cobbles. As for Movistar, Valverde should come out of this is much better shape than Quintana and better shape than Landa. IF Landa learned from his cobbled race this year he should come out in better shape than Quintana.

 

[thehog]

Re:

Predictions Quickstep is here to go stage hunting. I expect them to go all in and rip the race apart if at all possible. Slipstream's best cobbled riders have said they will be protecting Uran and not going after the stage win. It's like Van Avermaet will be required to stay with Porte as well. No idea what Sky's intentions are with Thomas. As for the GC guys Nibali and Valverde has the best chance to do something as they both have shown they can ride the cobbles. Quintana and Froome are likely to struggle for different reasons. Dumoulin MIGHT be able to do something just do his weight. Bardet will likely struggle. Martin, esp with this crash, is likely to struggle. Fuglsang -- don't know enough about how he can handle the cobbles. Landa has hardly ridding on cobbles and could struggle. Porte is likely to struggle. Quickstep really is doing more stage hunting and Jungels will be on his own mostly for GC if he tries to go after it, however he should be fine on the cobbles. As for Movistar, Valverde should come out of this is much better shape than Quintana and better shape than Landa. IF Landa learned from his cobbled race this year he should come out in better shape than Quintana.

Fuslang rode with Nibali on the cobbles in 2014. He is good. It’s a short stage as well, so QuickStep to amp it from the start.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Predictions Quickstep is here to go stage hunting. I expect them to go all in and rip the race apart if at all possible. Slipstream's best cobbled riders have said they will be protecting Uran and not going after the stage win. It's like Van Avermaet will be required to stay with Porte as well. No idea what Sky's intentions are with Thomas. As for the GC guys Nibali and Valverde has the best chance to do something as they both have shown they can ride the cobbles. Quintana and Froome are likely to struggle for different reasons. Dumoulin MIGHT be able to do something just do his weight. Bardet will likely struggle. Martin, esp with this crash, is likely to struggle. Fuglsang -- don't know enough about how he can handle the cobbles. Landa has hardly ridding on cobbles and could struggle. Porte is likely to struggle. Quickstep really is doing more stage hunting and Jungels will be on his own mostly for GC if he tries to go after it, however he should be fine on the cobbles. As for Movistar, Valverde should come out of this is much better shape than Quintana and better shape than Landa. IF Landa learned from his cobbled race this year he should come out in better shape than Quintana.

Fuslang rode with Nibali on the cobbles in 2014. He is good. It’s a short stage as well, so QuickStep to amp it from the start.

TY for the info on Fuglsang. So he could be up there with Nibali and likely Valverde. They need to go find Quickstep's train and try to hold on.

 

[dacooley]

I don't think it's so scary as it may seem for big strong guys with a decent engine like Dimoulin, Froome and Porte. though, light climbers will obviously be struggling. I guess there will be a proper battle for sitting at QS wheels. wouldn't be too suprised to see Sky attacking as well.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Re:

I don't think it's so scary as it may seem for big strong guys with a decent engine like Dimoulin, Froome and Porte. though, light climbers will obviously be struggling. I guess there will be a proper battle for sitting at QS wheels. wouldn't be too suprised to see Sky attacking as well.

Porte a big strong guy??

 

[Frankschleck]

Valverde FTW.

 

[mrhender]

Not so sure Bardet will be as poor as predicted here. He is light, yes. But has background in rough terrain, did really well in SB and is technically astute.

 

[racing_like_scalded_cats]

I heard the fans have been on a 2-day beer binge and are watering the cobbles with recycled ale and lager. What a mess.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Not so sure Bardet will be as poor as predicted here. He is light, yes. But has background in rough terrain, did really well in SB and is technically astute.

This

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's basically the last 80 km of Paris-Roubaix without Carrefour de l'Arbre. There will be a lot of crashes and flat tyres. This will lead to splits into small groups with some of the GC riders left behind. Some GC riders might lose minutes. It's a dangerous day for Quintana and others.

Some of the specialists might have to sacrifice their chances for their GC rider: Vanmarcke for Uran, Naesen for Bardet. BMC will probably allow Van Avermaet to defend his yellow jersey, although he could be valuable for Porte as well. Thomas's role will become clearer.

Nibali is the GC rider who should really seize this opportunity. Ideal would be a deal with a stage hunter like e.g. Gilbert, Chavanel or Tony Martin.

 

[yaco]

Excluding Sagan there is a chance that sprinters like Demare and Greipel can make the final - Expect the two Belgian teams to break up the race.

 

[Escarabajo]

Froome has a mechanical and everyone waits for him. They all arrive together good and dandy.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Quickstep will create some misery for the GC riders. The teams that don't have a GC contender won't need to hold back at all.

And that would be Quickstep only.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

It's basically the last 80 km of Paris-Roubaix without Carrefour de l'Arbre. There will be a lot of crashes and flat tyres. This will lead to splits into small groups with some of the GC riders left behind. Some GC riders might lose minutes. It's a dangerous day for Quintana and others.

Some of the specialists might have to sacrifice their chances for their GC rider: Vanmarcke for Uran, Naesen for Bardet. BMC will probably allow Van Avermaet to defend his yellow jersey, although he could be valuable for Porte as well. Thomas's role will become clearer.

Nibali is the GC rider who should really seize this opportunity. Ideal would be a deal with a stage hunter like e.g. Gilbert, Chavanel or Tony Martin.

Vanmarcke and Phinney have already said that tomorrow they are the key guys to protect Uran and that is their main reason for being here.

Valverde FTW.

Even as big of a fan of Valverde's as I am, I'm taking Quickstep for this stage. Basically anyone from Quickstep vs the rest of the field.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

52 k from the finish, it all kicks off in the GC

That 2,7 k pave is the perfect place to put the pressure on.

I expect Sunweb, Astana, Mitchelton & Lotto, to view this stage as one they need to attack, to gain time on rivals (I would have said UAE also, but depends how Martin feels tomorrow).

I expect Nibali, Valverde, Bardet & Mollema to hang on, but largely without team support.

(EDIT: Looking at Treks team again, and knowing what kind of DS Kim Andersen is, I think they will attack tomorrow too, with the aforementioned 4 teams)

I expect Uran, Quintana, Landa, Porte, Majka & Zakarin to lose massive time.

The big question is SKY. - If Froome feels comfortable on the cobbles, they have the team to destroy the peloton on the cobbles..... if not, we may see Thomas with Nibali, etc. - and the rest of the team ferrying Froome through further back.

Though, I remember when we all thought Froome couldn't decend, and then next year, he attacked down hill..... I'd wager he has practised cobbles a great deal, and will be up there tomorrow.

(all I have just written goes out the window, if one of the main protagonists comes down on the first pavees - then it all explodes into groups much earlier).

FIFA final and this stage tomorrow..... can't wait

 

[Vasilis]

I know the cobbles stage in 2015 didn’t create any differences, but Froome look on par with Nibali (and Valverde too), so I expect him to be right up there. Of course, his form may not be as good now as it was then, though. I think Thomas will cover all moves, but not contribute to anything, certainly if there are any GC contenders up there with him.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Tony Martin out..
https://twitter.com/katushacycling/status/1018181315127017475

 

[Oude Geuze]

I think Froome will do well, finishing in second or third group 50-60 seconds off the pace. First will be specialists with perhaps 1-2 GC guys, Nibali, Dumoulin and Fuglsang perhaps, then groups of the stronger GC men and some lieutenants, Roglic, Dan Martin, G, Valverde, Froome. The rest will be utter chaos with smaller groups scattering the countryside. Cobbles are so neat, I’m really excited!
Could GT’s feature sections of gravel as well? I mean, it would be less painful and bumby but would cause the same effect of increasing rolling resistance and diminish drafting advantage without using gravity, aka fun!

 

[Oliwright]

Expect one of Sagan, Quickstep, GCV, or riders like Stuyven to win. Matt white describes it as infinitely difficult for small GC riders, I think they'll ride away from all GC guys.

Out of the GC group, I think G, Nibali, Valverde, Fulgsang and Jungels have the best chance of the GC contenders.

I expect G to free roam & for Froome to have Rowe, Moscon & Kwiat as his bodyguards. Whilst Castro tries to stay ahead and look after poor Egan Bernal. Aso long as Froome & G don't fall, I think they should be pretty good.

Landa & Quintana should be the most worried of the BIG GC contenders IMO. They're never the best at flat stages & making splits. But Erviti & a few others are excellent riders should they be able to keep up.

GVA has been given permission to stage hunt, but Porte has some incredible flat stage riders to look after him. & apparently TVG is pretty good on cobbles. Porte didn't do too badly in 2014 remember.

I worry deeply about Bardet, Martin, Majka & Yates. I also think Dumoulin, Roglic and Uran will be average to good.

 

[hazaran]

It's bizarre how everyone keeps repeating Nibali. Last I checked Bahrain aren't running lead tires yet so if he flats, we won't be able to tell the difference between him and a Pinot standing on the side cursing his derailleur. Car is a long way off and the team is mostly dreck.

 

[Frankschleck]

D. Martin and Zakarin are gonna be thrown out of the GC.

 

[rick james]

Does anyone have a rough idea what time the will hit the first cobbled section at? I might go a small cycle tomorrow morning but I want to be back in time for the first cobbled section..