I'm not saying Roglic will win, the gap is too thin but Bernal actually thought he could win time today. He said earlier "my tour starts with this stage", Ineos worked for him quite strong and Carapaz attacked. But in the end he couldn't do much. MAL is smaller than Bernal but had the power to keep up with Landa/Porte.
Bernal needs his form from last year but at this moment he doesn't have it to put minutes ahead of Roglic on Loze. Roglic looks the freshest rn, he didn't struggle yet and kept his effort at a minimum. He can also pace like a madman for good periods of time like he did today. I can see Pog struggling on Loze though, he also spent a lot of effort.
I'm still going with my bold podium from stage 4

:
Rog
Bern
Pog