Tour de France 2020 | Stage 20 ITT (Lure - La Planche des Belles Filles, 36.2km)

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Alright lets keep the Clinic talk to the Clinic.
apologies. I was just analysing if Roglic could have taken more time, and if he should have taken more time.

Should he have taken more time: yes from a mental point of view (more security). No from all indications earlier in the race (Pogacar climbing very well but seemed to fade slowly in the Alps).
Could he have taken more time: yes, but maybe not the time he lost in the TT, and maybe, if he was more agressive, it could actually have laid bare that Roglic was often on the limit, and maybe Pogacar would have countered him. So it could have backfired.

In the end, nobody expected such a big gap in the TT. Even if Roglic did a good TT in line with his performances in the previous days (and weeks), he would still have probably lost the Tour with half a minute.
 
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They don't have to predict zilch, taking time when you can is the right thing to do.
You don't need to predict something to know that something is possible and to act accordingly. And of course being the best for a portion of the race matters in this case. It's not like Roglič was the best during the first three stages only. He had plenty of opportunities to act on his superiority.

Oh but that would have meant taking some risks. Can't take them risks.
Oh snap turns out not trying to take more time was a risk in itself. Why did nobody tell them?
Didn't have the legs on stage 8. He didn't tell his team to ride, the DS did. He told his team to ride on other stages. Didn't have a gap on Pogacar once on stage 9. Didn't have a gap on him on stage 13, and he was emptying the tank to drop Bernal there anyway. On stage 15 he got beaten by Pog. Stage 16 nothing happened. Stage 17 he dropped Pog. Stage 18 he's suppose to risk more on a descent?

Contador, Froome, etc all have defended much thinner leads without attacking, and nobody then pretended they rode like Rodriguez in the 2012 Giro.
 
Contador 2015 is actually quite a good example - unexpected pretender comes strong week 3, Contador loses time and form last stage, but because he had a buffer he won the Giro. Why did he have a buffer? Because he'd taken time at even very small moments (like up to Monte Berico) and attacked from range as early as stage 5. Despite knowing he had the strongest TT of the favourites.
 
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Didn't have the legs on stage 8. He didn't tell his team to ride, the DS did. He told his team to ride on other stages. Didn't have a gap on Pogacar once on stage 9. Didn't have a gap on him on stage 13, and he was emptying the tank to drop Bernal there anyway. On stage 15 he got beaten by Pog. Stage 16 nothing happened. Stage 17 he dropped Pog. Stage 18 he's suppose to risk more on a descent?

Contador, Froome, etc all have defended much thinner leads without attacking, and nobody then pretended they rode like Rodriguez in the 2012 Giro.
According to Roglic, he did. Just didn't want to follow him because he didn't want the yellow jersey, or so he claimed.

JV after the day "Nothing has been lost today". For them, that stage counted as a win.
 
I strongly recall Dumoulin trying to put time into Froome at every occasion.

Sorry, but this loss (and it is a loss) is even worse than Nibali's last season. It's not even about knowing how good rivals might be, it's also knowing that a puncture at the top of the final climb on stage 18 could lose you the race. Roglic let Pogacar up the road, which was a bad decision not just because he underestimated Pogacar but also because on that stage he didn't put any time into Bernal and others, while also burning out Dumoulin. GC riding is simpler than people here make it out to be. Of course, you have to be wary about recovery and balancing yourself out over three weeks, but you also have to take time from your rivals. Roglic attacked maybe twice all race, and one was for show. 50 seconds is not a buffer, and he should have been more active.
Stage 8 is the only case and it largely rests on assigning Roglic record shattering legs when we simply don't know.
 
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Stage 8 is the only case and it largely rests on assigning Roglic record shattering legs when we simply don't know.
This is nonsense. Stage 8 might have been the only time when Jumbo inexplicably let a threat up the road.

But Roglic had a much stronger team all race. And all Jumbo used it for was to maintain their time gap and stop anyone from attacking. With better use of the team he could have gained time even with weaker legs.
 
For me that woudl be everybody but that's not rocket science hey
To be completely honest, by what I said (you immediately feel who is better in the race...): maybe Roglic felt during some stages that Pogacar was better. So that could be a good reason why he didn't try to take time on him (or why he let him go on Peyresourde). The Meribel stage felt like Pogacar was about to crack though. But maybe (most probably) Roglic gave evertything he had, and that resulted in 15 seconds at the line.
 
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They don't have to predict zilch, taking time when you can is the right thing to do.
You don't need to know the future to know that something is possible and to act accordingly. And of course being the best for a portion of the race matters in this case. It's not like Roglič was the best during the first three stages only. He had plenty of opportunities to act on his superiority.

Oh but that would have meant taking some risks. Can't take them risks.
Oh snap turns out not trying to take more time was a risk in itself. Why did nobody tell them?
I agree that Roglic could've attacked more but where exactly was he going to take more time on Pogacar? Grand Colombier was wasted no doubt but it was wasted by everyone in the race. He pushed very hard on Puy Mary and had Pogacar dying on his wheel, and then dropped him on Loze. He still loses the Tour if he follows him on the Peyresourde. Nobody on earth saw Pogacar putting 2 minutes into the field in the final TT.
 
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Pogacar's ride today was one of the best 1 hour performances I've ever seen. Not only he crushed rivals on the climb (great VAM of 1850-1900 m/h) but also was on par with Dumoulin for the first 30 km :eek: I'm curious of his numbers today: especially average watts per kg for the whole TT. I mean if they had had an uphill TT on Alpe d' Huez today Pogacar's time would have been in Armstrong/Pantani league.
 
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I agree that Roglic could've attacked more but where exactly was he going to take more time on Pogacar? Grand Colombier was wasted no doubt but it was wasted by everyone in the race. He pushed very hard on Puy Mary and had Pogacar dying on his wheel, and then dropped him on Loze. He still loses the Tour if he follows him on the Peyresourde. Nobody on earth saw Pogacar putting 2 minutes into the field in the final TT.
They had a couple chances, and that was with their team doing their most so that no chances came up. Nobody saw Pogačar putting 2 minutes into the field in the final TT but he would still have won the Tour if it had only been 1 minute. Or if it had been 30 seconds and Roglič had punctured.
 
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Congratulations to Tadej Pogačar for wining stage 20, the Tour 2020 and everything else there was to win, except green years. I feel that the performance Pogačar made today, on TT, was enough, regardless of what would happen on some other stages. The difference Pogačar made today, it was just too massive. Hopefully we indeed have seen a glimpse of a new "Merckx" today and this was one of those Contador vs. Amstrong, Froome vs. Wiggins ... moments.

Personally, i have bitter sweet feeling about it. The sweet ones will for sure stay around and will only grow in the future. Especially is Pogačar will be able to keep this trajectory. As for bitter ones, my favorite was Roglič and he not winning Tour 2020, for me, that will always remain a sore spot.
 
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Early August I said that Roglic was peaking too early. But do they listen? Oh, no...

Admitted, after Wednesday I thought he had it in the bag...
Roglic should have read this forum, he would have find out that his ITT at the end of a Grand Tour is crap.
Really he dropped his main rival in stage 17, then was also probably better on stage 18.

Maybe he should've attacked, but peaking too early is one of the most absurd takes I've seen on this
 

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