Tour de France 2020 | Stage 20 ITT (Lure - La Planche des Belles Filles, 36.2km)

[solo80k]

Welcome to the new era. Pog is a new Froome / Contactor / Lance. Wondering what Ineos are capable of next year. They need a strong team with an unbeatable leader in the mountains because they can't rely on ITT vs this freak.

It is the biggest performance in GT since Froome's Giro ambush.

 

[Brullnux]

Why don't people give me the 19 chances Roglic missed to drop Pogacar.

40 seconds lost on Stage 8. That was the key. Maybe could've gone earlier on Stage 17 instead of sending Kuss up the road for 500m.

Either way, Roglic enters this with 1.37 advantage and he doesn't lose it - Roglic has a nice buffer, and Pogacar's belief that he can win the Tour is pretty diminished. I think a lot of Roglic's collapse was mental, especially on that last climb. Lost the bulk of the time there, and I think if he gets onto the PdbF with 1 minute advantage in GC then he is nowhere near the same level of panicked, and rides a bit smarter and better.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Dammit, Aru will miss a career defining party in Paris.

Also no Formolino bringing his own Grappa to the party.

 

[tobydawq]

Some low-hanging fruit:
Stage 8 to Loudenvielle: follow Pogacar on Peyresourde, or at least try harder to limit the losses. Potential: 38 seconds
Stage 9 to Laruns: too much pulling by Roglic in the last couple of K's. He pulled his biggest competition (Pogacar) to take more time on the likes of Uran, Bardet, Porte,... Potential: only the bonus seconds (2 or so if he won the stage instead of Pogacar)
stage 13 to Puy Marie: so much good work by the team, only to NOT take any bonus seconds and allow the break to take them. No real attacks by Roglic. Potential: some bonus seconds
stage 17 to col de la Loze: it was clear Pogacar was pumping from before the last K. No real attack until it was too late to take significant amount of time. Potential: 10-15 seconds more.

edited by mod

I agree with a lot of what you say but you can't say the last thing in here, and you know it.

 

[Red Rick]

Alright lets keep the Clinic talk to the Clinic.

 

[Rollthedice]

40 seconds lost on Stage 8. That was the key. Maybe could've gone earlier on Stage 17 instead of sending Kuss up the road for 500m.

Either way, Roglic enters this with 1.37 advantage and he doesn't lose it - Roglic has a nice buffer, and Pogacar's belief that he can win the Tour is pretty diminished. I think a lot of Roglic's collapse was mental, especially on that last climb. Lost the bulk of the time there, and I think if he gets onto the PdbF with 1 minute advantage in GC then he is nowhere near the same level of panicked, and rides a bit smarter and better.

Roglic should have read this forum, he would have find out that his ITT at the end of a Grand Tour is crap.

 

[gregrowlerson]

It's not like Pogacar won by riding super risky and ultra aggessive lol. He was really aggressive for 2 stages in the Pyrenees then somewhat aggro on on the Puy Mary and that's it.

Yeah, but that won't stop people from saying that he rode like Pantani in twenty years time. When arguably he attacked less than Ullrich.

 

[perico]

He also said Pogacar was overrated like Mas before him.

So 3 of the Top 5 are overrrated! Okay...

 

[WKA311]

Colnago just won the Tour. Didn't think we see this again.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Definitely a lot better than the 2012 Tour..

A bit above mediore in my estimation (on a TdF-scale, not Giro lol), but will be interesting to see what the people vote!

I've been tongue in cheek with the 2012 Tour.

2020 Tour ten times better

 

[DFA123]

Some low-hanging fruit:
Stage 8 to Loudenvielle: follow Pogacar on Peyresourde, or at least try harder to limit the losses. Potential: 38 seconds
Stage 9 to Laruns: too much pulling by Roglic in the last couple of K's. He pulled his biggest competition (Pogacar) to take more time on the likes of Uran, Bardet, Porte,... Potential: only the bonus seconds (2 or so if he won the stage instead of Pogacar)
stage 13 to Puy Marie: so much good work by the team, only to NOT take any bonus seconds and allow the break to take them. No real attacks by Roglic. Potential: some bonus seconds
stage 17 to col de la Loze: it was clear Pogacar was pumping from before the last K. No real attack until it was too late to take significant amount of time. Potential: 10-15 seconds more.

Yep, and that's just how he could have improved given the limited tactics his team used. There were countless other times when he had five or six men and Pogacar was alone or with one weak team-mate. A more creative strategy - using Dumoulin or Kuss for example as a second GC threat, could have given him loads more opportunities.

 

[mollusc]

I’m not very surprised. Odds looked skewed to me last night and placed first bet since Portugal for 16 Euros on Pog getting three jerseys. Vuelta last year was very impressive, and had he not lost nearly minute and half due to bad luck he would have been up there, with no team versus a ridiculously powerful outfit. Looked the strongest GC rider all through, I thought. Very unusual ITT, and always strong possibility of significant changes. 57 secs deficit def didn’t warrant 10/1. Polka Dot more problematic maybe, but Pog had nothing to lose and youthful boldness to go with outlier talent. the eventual gap was amazing though, and hope it holds.

 

[Red Rick]

40 seconds lost on Stage 8. That was the key. Maybe could've gone earlier on Stage 17 instead of sending Kuss up the road for 500m.

Either way, Roglic enters this with 1.37 advantage and he doesn't lose it - Roglic has a nice buffer, and Pogacar's belief that he can win the Tour is pretty diminished. I think a lot of Roglic's collapse was mental, especially on that last climb. Lost the bulk of the time there, and I think if he gets onto the PdbF with 1 minute advantage in GC then he is nowhere near the same level of panicked, and rides a bit smarter and better.

Think it's more likely he heard the time gaps, overextended until the 2nd time check, then bonked on the climb.

 

[hrotha]

I'm amazed that "the strongest rider for at least a portion of the race, supported by what was BY FAR the strongest team in the race, couldn't possibly have tried anything to get more of a buffer" is a thing people are writing.

Pogačar was incredible but Roglič would still have lost the Tour today to a merely good Pogačar, and he was always one puncture away from losing it to an entirely normal Pogačar.

 

[Brullnux]

Think it's more likely he heard the time gaps, overextended until the 2nd time check, then bonked on the climb.

Either way, with that extra security he doesn't lose the race.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm amazed that "the strongest rider for at least a portion of the race, supported by what was BY FAR the strongest team in the race, couldn't possibly have tried anything to get more of a buffer" is a thing people are writing.

I'm surprised riders are supposed to know with 100% accuracy how good their rivals are, how they're supposed to predict the future, and how being the best for a portion of the race matters equally for all portions of the race.

It's like calling Dumoulin an idiot for losing that Giro to Froome while being better than him for 85% of that Giro.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Colnago just won the Tour. Didn't think we see this again.

Cazzo di bici!

 

[richwallone]

Think it's more likely he heard the time gaps, overextended until the 2nd time check, then bonked on the climb.

Definitely looks like that to me... Dumo was saying for that very reason he doesn't like to hear his time splits unlike Roglic who always wants to know them.

 

[DFA123]

I'm surprised riders are supposed to know with 100% accuracy how good their rivals are, how they're supposed to predict the future, and how being the best for a portion of the race matters equally for all portions of the race.

Erm, isn't that exactly why you do everything you can to take time in each stage?

 

[hrotha]

I'm surprised riders are supposed to know with 100% accuracy how good their rivals are, how they're supposed to predict the future, and how being the best for a portion of the race matters equally for all portions of the race.

They don't have to predict zilch, taking time when you can is the right thing to do.
You don't need to know the future to know that something is possible and to act accordingly. And of course being the best for a portion of the race matters in this case. It's not like Roglič was the best during the first three stages only. He had plenty of opportunities to act on his superiority.

Oh but that would have meant taking some risks. Can't take them risks.
Oh snap turns out not trying to take more time was a risk in itself. Why did nobody tell them?

 

[bajbar]

Erm, isn't that exactly why you do everything you can to take time in each stage?

Simon Yates used that tactic in the Giro. I wonder how that ended up for him...

 

[ppanther92]

Dammit, Aru will miss a career defining party in Paris.

He should jump in the next plane. The party is one of the moments where I can still see him performing.

 

[Ivan_Basso_77]

Nothing against TJV, I like them quite much actually, but I'm super happy that being so passive in the mountains backfired on them and Pogacar won. I preferred the way Sky were using their train in the mountains- always trying to destroy the peloton at least once in the race- much more. Jumbo just kept everything together. Hopefully Roglic will not have so much trust in his ITT anymore and will approach future GTs more aggresively.

Couldn't agree more. When you feel stronger than the rest you must take advantage. Yet just like in last year's Giro Roglic just followed others in the mountains. Me feels like he and Jumbo deserved this ending.

 

[Brullnux]

I'm surprised riders are supposed to know with 100% accuracy how good their rivals are, how they're supposed to predict the future, and how being the best for a portion of the race matters equally for all portions of the race.

It's like calling Dumoulin an idiot for losing that Giro to Froome while being better than him for 85% of that Giro.

I strongly recall Dumoulin trying to put time into Froome at every occasion.

Sorry, but this loss (and it is a loss) is even worse than Nibali's last season. It's not even about knowing how good rivals might be, it's also knowing that a puncture at the top of the final climb on stage 18 could lose you the race. Roglic let Pogacar up the road, which was a bad decision not just because he underestimated Pogacar but also because on that stage he didn't put any time into Bernal and others, while also burning out Dumoulin. GC riding is simpler than people here make it out to be. Of course, you have to be wary about recovery and balancing yourself out over three weeks, but you also have to take time from your rivals. Roglic attacked maybe twice all race, and one was for show. 50 seconds is not a buffer, and he should have been more active.

 

[spalco]

I'm surprised riders are supposed to know with 100% accuracy how good their rivals are, how they're supposed to predict the future, and how being the best for a portion of the race matters equally for all portions of the race.

It's like calling Dumoulin an idiot for losing that Giro to Froome while being better than him for 85% of that Giro.

Right, that's why you maximise your gains in stages when you know you're better, because you can't predict your rivals' form tomorrow.