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Tour de France 2020 | Stage 9 (Pau - Laruns, 153 km)

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I think there are too many riders within distance for JV to properly control the race.

Sky would just wait for the first Mountain stage and put 1 minute 30 into the nearest person then ride tempo the rest of the race, 10th would be 5 minutes down by now.

A couple of those lads will fancy going for glory 100k out in the alps hopefully.

I think this is the big worry for them and the big problem presented by Roglic's riding.

At the end of the race if he is the strongest every stage then they'll probably still be fine, but for now they leave a range of climbing talent within manageable distance and you can only mark a finite amount of moves.

At least half the top 10 could basically have been buried by now.
 
Bernal is far from weak. This route design is just not made for him. He's not the punchiest, better than some, but compared to extremely punchy climbers he loses. If he had a stronger team I am sure he would profit from a generally harder race, more mountains, longer mountains, higher mountains, but as Ineos this year is not what it used to be the Jumbos are controlling the pace and if they aren't someone like Pogacar attacks with a punch. In the time trail he will lose time to at least Roglic and Pogacar as well.
I think Ineos should try to make the stages hard, as best as they can, early, and not allow Jumbo to dawdle until the final climb where Roglic and Pogacar, even Bardet, will always have an advantage.
The Jumbots are all on a very high level, but they are not absolutely first class contenders themselves, as we have seen now. When the pace is really high even their best men are left behind and Roglic does not have the advantage of a strong team anymore.

For Pogacar it should be extremely important to not lose any time in the crosswinds anymore. That's the biggest risk for him.
 
Oh yes, he is definitely coming. He is sitting in 2nd position after these first 9 days while not being great at all. He is a phenomenal GC-rider simply put, now its stage 15, 17 and 18. If he has legs, I think he will win.
or perhaps this is his maximum; the over rating of Bernal cause of one attack against average field in last years TDF continues. Mark this post; Bernal will NEVER be able to drop roglic
 
Bernal is far from weak. This route design is just not made for him. He's not the punchiest, better than some, but compared to extremely punchy climbers he loses. If he had a stronger team I am sure he would profit from a generally harder race, more mountains, longer mountains, higher mountains, but as Ineos this year is not what it used to be the Jumbos are controlling the pace and if they aren't someone like Pogacar attacks with a punch. In the time trail he will lose time to at least Roglic and Pogacar as well.
I think Ineos should try to make the stages hard, as best as they can, early, and not allow Jumbo to dawdle until the final climb where Roglic and Pogacar, even Bardet, will always have an advantage.
The Jumbots are all on a very high level, but they are not absolutely first class contenders themselves, as we have seen now. When the pace is really high even their best men are left behind and Roglic does not have the advantage of a strong team anymore.

For Pogacar it should be extremely important to not lose any time in the crosswinds anymore. That's the biggest risk for him.
So you're saying Bernal needs an extremly tailored route to win the Tour?

I thought that was a criticism of GTs these days.
 
I think this is the big worry for them and the big problem presented by Roglic's riding.

At the end of the race if he is the strongest every stage then they'll probably still be fine, but for now they leave a range of climbing talent within manageable distance and you can only mark a finite amount of moves.

At least half the top 10 could basically have been buried by now.
The main MTFs are very straightforward. If an especially terrible break goes they could probably get help from other teams, etc. IMO they really only need to control Pogacar and Bernal
 
In hindsight the answer is obviously yes.

But the 4 GC guys could have started playing games, because of the bonus seconds, so he could have stayed away till the line, so at the time, I think it made sense to keep trying.

Also if the 4 GC guys got pulled back by the guys behind the whole collective would have slowed and he had know real way to know how likely or not that was.

He gave himself two routes to winning and I think he made the right call, he just judged the finale wrong but he'll learn. You'd not be surprised to see him in with another chance this year and if not he'll back for others.