Tour de France 2020 | Stage 9 (Pau - Laruns, 153 km)

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Bernal over-rated?! I've heard it all now.
Seeing as overrated is a relative term surely it's impossible that's the most outrageous claim you've seen. I think his Tour win is hard to compare and it's the only GT we have from him. He seems to get a lot of werid excuses for a rider who's often treated like the top dog in GTs.

Meanwhile Pogacar was only 3rd in a weak Vuelta.
 
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How much time would Roglic expect to put into Pogacar in the TT?
I know Pog beat him in Nats but would be surprised if he beat him here.
This is Roglic track record in third week ITTs:

  • Tour 2017, stage 20: 14th, lost time to Froome, Contador and Uran among others.
  • Tour 2018, stage 20: 8th, lost more than a minute to Dumoulin and Froome.
  • Giro 2019, stage 21: 10th, lost time to Nibali among others.
So yeah, not exactly a world beater. I wouldn't bet on winning the Tour that day if I were in his shoes.
 
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This is Roglic track record in third week ITTs:

  • Tour 2017, stage 20: 14th, lost time to Froome, Contador and Uran among others.
  • Tour 2018, stage 20: 8th, lost more than a minute to Dumoulin and Froome.
  • Giro 2019, stage 21: 10th, lost time to Nibali among others.
So yeah, not exactly a world beater. I wouldn't bet on winning the Tour that day if I were in his shoes.
2017 - had a mechanical
2018 - he had a stone in his elbow due to a crash
2019 - dreadful form all around at that point, still barely lost time to Nibali and crushed Landa and Carapaz

2nd ITT of the 2019 Giro is a better reference IMO, and I think even at that point his form was already down.
 
Seeing as overrated is a relative term surely it's impossible that's the most outrageous claim you've seen. I think his Tour win is hard to compare and it's the only GT we have from him. He seems to get a lot of werid excuses for a rider who's often treated like the top dog in GTs.

Meanwhile Pogacar was only 3rd in a weak Vuelta.
I think Thomas would have won the Tour last year if he was in 2018 shape. The Vuelta form is yet to play out, see how the Slovenians go in this race. At the moment they look good much better than Valverde...........Roglic has podiumed his last two grand tours so he is doing something right and he just missed the podium in the 2018 Tour. Obviously an improved rider for someone who had a late start to the sport.
 
I think Thomas would have won the Tour last year if he was in 2018 shape. The Vuelta form is yet to play out, see how the Slovenians go in this race. At the moment they look good much better than Valverde...........Roglic has podiumed his last two grand tours so he is doing something right and he just missed the podium in the 2018 Tour. Obviously an improved rider for someone who had a late start to the sport.
Yeah 2018 Thomas easily wins the 2019 Tour, though I don't think he far and away the best climber in that Tour and he only rode away from them on one stage.
 
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If one could go back to the day before Stage 1 and say to Roglic, "After 9 stages, you will be in the yellow jersey and leading Bernal by 21 seconds," I think he and TJV would have taken that. At the same time, if one could go back to the day before Stage 1 and say to Bernal, "After 9 stages, of which TJV has outright won 3, you will be in second place on GC and trailing Roglic by just 21 seconds, having lost time only on bonuses," I think he and Ineos would have taken that. -- Interesting that Plan B for both teams is gone from serious contention (Dumoulin and Carapaz).
 
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My takes (FWIW):

The winner comes out of Bernal, Rog and Pog -- though those three may not end up on the podium, necessarily.

Head picks Rog.
Heart picks Pog.
The route picks Bernal.

Rog has the team, the ITT, the punchiness to gain bonus seconds and the (slight) time advantage so far. Question: will form recede?

Pog seems really easy, attacks, is only 21 and is exciting to watch. He can also TT. Question: will he make a rookie mistake and lose time that he cannot recover?

Bernal has the route (almost no ITT Kms) and, arguably, the best recovery. Question: can he put enough distance between himself and the others before the ITT?

I would like Pog to win, because it would be historic and he is so damn exciting. Bernal would be my least favorite only because I do not believe present GTs actually favor the strongest all round rider -- they tip the balance too far in favor of small, light climbers (just check out the top ten). However, recovery is one of the three elements a GT should test, and if Bernal comes out on top because of that -- given the route -- fair enough, but somewhat disappointing, tbh.
 
After finishing watching the recording of the F1 race I missed I want to share some thoughts about the stage today.

Hirschi's ride was incredible. Retrospectively it's funny but the people who claimed he made a mistake by not waiting for the others on the Soudet absolutely had a point at the time. It's just that it turned out he was so much stronger, going solo was indeed the right tactic. The fact that he fell short of a TdF stage win for the 2nd time in this Tour now is almost tragic and who knows if he'll ever pull off a solo like this again (you don't exactly see them very often) but he won a lot of fans today and if he stays that strong he has a very bright future ahead.

Already wrote it in the Bernal thread but I really like how he looked today. This is a climb that on paper should have suited him less than yesterdays and the stop and go way it was ridden probably suits other riders better as well and still he looked really good. I think the most important difference compared to yesterday isn't just that he never got dropped but that he felt good enough to take initiative himself. You don't do that if you aren't confident in your legs and fear the counterattack. Yesterday and the Lusette might seriously come back to haunt Roglic and if not Roglic then someone else. There are only three podium spots which right look likely to go to Roglic, Pogacar and Bernal. If that indeed happens whoever finishes 4th will probably regret not going harder yesterday.

Pogacar was once again great and looks to me to be the strongest climber of this race. I hoped Hirschi would win the stage but Pogacar is a worthy winner as well. I think though that it might not remain his biggest win for long.
Roglic I think looked better than yesterday. He once again followed some very strong attacks, but it's more that he was willing to pull his small group which he wasn't yesterday. His big day may come on stage 13 which I think should suit him really well and where I can see him getting a gap on Bernal and Pog which they won't even be able to close if they are slightly stronger on the big HC mtf's.

Quintana unfortunately did what I feared he would do. He looked absolutely incredible yesterday, riding away from anyone but Roglic and Pogacar with ease, and then he isn't able follow a number of gc contenders a day later. It sucks but that's exactly what I've come to expect from Quintana. He was lucky only to lose a few seconds due to generally small time gaps but I'm pretty sure this wasn't a one off. This was a sign for things to come in the remaining mountain stages and while he might still finish high in the gc I just don't see him contesting for the podium.
 
My takes (FWIW):

The winner comes out of Bernal, Rog and Pog -- though those three may not end up on the podium, necessarily.

Head picks Rog.
Heart picks Pog.
The route picks Bernal.

Rog has the team, the ITT, the punchiness to gain bonus seconds and the (slight) time advantage so far. Question: will form recede?

Pog seems really easy, attacks, is only 21 and is exciting to watch. He can also TT. Question: will he make a rookie mistake and lose time that he cannot recover?

Bernal has the route (almost no ITT Kms) and, arguably, the best recovery. Question: can he put enough distance between himself and the others before the ITT?

I would like Pog to win, because it would be historic and he is so damn exciting. Bernal would be my least favorite only because I do not believe present GTs actually favor the strongest all round rider -- they tip the balance too far in favor of small, light climbers (just check out the top ten). However, recovery is one of the three elements a GT should test, and if Bernal comes out on top because of that -- given the route -- fair enough, but somewhat disappointing, tbh.
usually tends to be 1 big crack from the favourites late on with a ninja replacing him on the podium (and Uran is not far away right now)
 
Here's hoping it's decided on the road, instead of:
  • Waiting for the yellow jersey or Ineos leader
  • Team car being AWOL
  • Bogus ruling from the racing jury
  • Improvised finish line during the middle of the stage
  • Neutralization under normal racing conditions
Keeping my fingers crossed!
 
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If one could go back to the day before Stage 1 and say to Roglic, "After 9 stages, you will be in the yellow jersey and leading Bernal by 21 seconds," I think he and TJV would have taken that. At the same time, if one could go back to the day before Stage 1 and say to Bernal, "After 9 stages, of which TJV has outright won 3, you will be in second place on GC and trailing Roglic by just 21 seconds, having lost time only on bonuses," I think he and Ineos would have taken that. -- Interesting that Plan B for both teams is gone from serious contention (Dumoulin and Carapaz).
I think Quintana would have taken a 32 second deficit to Roglic and an 11 second deficit to Bernal after stage 9 also.
 
Nairo is too up and down usually but I have heard a few mentions now about Martin as France last great hope which is great for Bardet
I feel like Martin and Bardet are each going to lose a chunk of time on the summit finishes in week 3. Nairo will probably lose time on 1 or 2 of them too, but Nairo being Nairo will go full turbo up the Loze and win by 2 minutes
 
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I feel like Martin and Bardet are each going to lose a chunk of time on the summit finishes in week 3. Nairo will probably lose time on 1 or 2 of them too, but Nairo being Nairo will go full turbo up the Loze and win by 2 minutes
Yep Nairo will both lose and win 10 mins over a few stages and it's always hard to judge Bardets form but a podium is doable if he's feeling good and he is a natural climber
 
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Hasn't really tried yet, no MTFs, etc. If it's a MTF today I think he and Pog put seconds into Landa/Bernal.
Landa hasn't been tested yet. There's been no need for him to attack anyone, the finishes so far haven't suited him. His best chances of putting time into people are Grand Colombiere and Loze. Maybe Villard-de-Lans, if he gets to the summit of St Niziere with the right mix of riders, because there's no way he can solo 20km.
 

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