I think 2017 TdF was a blip up and Aru was declining before he got to UAE
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I'm picking two colombians for the podiumAnyone not picking two Slovenians for the podium ?
Seeing as overrated is a relative term surely it's impossible that's the most outrageous claim you've seen. I think his Tour win is hard to compare and it's the only GT we have from him. He seems to get a lot of werid excuses for a rider who's often treated like the top dog in GTs.Bernal over-rated?! I've heard it all now.
Haha, me too (actually put some money on that before the Tour) but atm the Slovenians look very good.I'm picking two colombians for the podium
Good luck, I say one for sure at this point.I'm picking two colombians for the podium
This is Roglic track record in third week ITTs:How much time would Roglic expect to put into Pogacar in the TT?
I know Pog beat him in Nats but would be surprised if he beat him here.
2017 - had a mechanicalThis is Roglic track record in third week ITTs:
So yeah, not exactly a world beater. I wouldn't bet on winning the Tour that day if I were in his shoes.
- Tour 2017, stage 20: 14th, lost time to Froome, Contador and Uran among others.
- Tour 2018, stage 20: 8th, lost more than a minute to Dumoulin and Froome.
- Giro 2019, stage 21: 10th, lost time to Nibali among others.
I think Thomas would have won the Tour last year if he was in 2018 shape. The Vuelta form is yet to play out, see how the Slovenians go in this race. At the moment they look good much better than Valverde...........Roglic has podiumed his last two grand tours so he is doing something right and he just missed the podium in the 2018 Tour. Obviously an improved rider for someone who had a late start to the sport.Seeing as overrated is a relative term surely it's impossible that's the most outrageous claim you've seen. I think his Tour win is hard to compare and it's the only GT we have from him. He seems to get a lot of werid excuses for a rider who's often treated like the top dog in GTs.
Meanwhile Pogacar was only 3rd in a weak Vuelta.
Yeah 2018 Thomas easily wins the 2019 Tour, though I don't think he far and away the best climber in that Tour and he only rode away from them on one stage.I think Thomas would have won the Tour last year if he was in 2018 shape. The Vuelta form is yet to play out, see how the Slovenians go in this race. At the moment they look good much better than Valverde...........Roglic has podiumed his last two grand tours so he is doing something right and he just missed the podium in the 2018 Tour. Obviously an improved rider for someone who had a late start to the sport.
Yeah 2018 Thomas easily wins the 2019 Tour, though I don't think he far and away the best climber in that Tour and he only rode away from them on one stage.
My takes (FWIW):
The winner comes out of Bernal, Rog and Pog -- though those three may not end up on the podium, necessarily.
Head picks Rog.
Heart picks Pog.
The route picks Bernal.
Rog has the team, the ITT, the punchiness to gain bonus seconds and the (slight) time advantage so far. Question: will form recede?
Pog seems really easy, attacks, is only 21 and is exciting to watch. He can also TT. Question: will he make a rookie mistake and lose time that he cannot recover?
Bernal has the route (almost no ITT Kms) and, arguably, the best recovery. Question: can he put enough distance between himself and the others before the ITT?
I would like Pog to win, because it would be historic and he is so damn exciting. Bernal would be my least favorite only because I do not believe present GTs actually favor the strongest all round rider -- they tip the balance too far in favor of small, light climbers (just check out the top ten). However, recovery is one of the three elements a GT should test, and if Bernal comes out on top because of that -- given the route -- fair enough, but somewhat disappointing, tbh.
usually tends to be 1 big crack from the favourites late on with a ninja replacing him on the podium (and Uran is not far away right now)
Nairo is too up and down usually but I have heard a few mentions now about Martin as France last great hope which is great for BardetIt does look like a 3-way race, unless Quintana can pull a Carapaz
This belongs to the clinicTour may come down to which teams are best at beating COVID-19 tests
I think Quintana would have taken a 32 second deficit to Roglic and an 11 second deficit to Bernal after stage 9 also.If one could go back to the day before Stage 1 and say to Roglic, "After 9 stages, you will be in the yellow jersey and leading Bernal by 21 seconds," I think he and TJV would have taken that. At the same time, if one could go back to the day before Stage 1 and say to Bernal, "After 9 stages, of which TJV has outright won 3, you will be in second place on GC and trailing Roglic by just 21 seconds, having lost time only on bonuses," I think he and Ineos would have taken that. -- Interesting that Plan B for both teams is gone from serious contention (Dumoulin and Carapaz).
I feel like Martin and Bardet are each going to lose a chunk of time on the summit finishes in week 3. Nairo will probably lose time on 1 or 2 of them too, but Nairo being Nairo will go full turbo up the Loze and win by 2 minutesNairo is too up and down usually but I have heard a few mentions now about Martin as France last great hope which is great for Bardet
Yep Nairo will both lose and win 10 mins over a few stages and it's always hard to judge Bardets form but a podium is doable if he's feeling good and he is a natural climberI feel like Martin and Bardet are each going to lose a chunk of time on the summit finishes in week 3. Nairo will probably lose time on 1 or 2 of them too, but Nairo being Nairo will go full turbo up the Loze and win by 2 minutes
Hasn't really tried yet, no MTFs, etc. If it's a MTF today I think he and Pog put seconds into Landa/Bernal.It was enough for Thomas and for Roglic that's all he needs to do, ride away on one stage. I don't think he's capable with this field.
Wow! That's surprisingBebbe Conti on the Rai Replay says that Alberto Contador has offered to work with Aru
to see what can be fixed physically or psychologically
Landa hasn't been tested yet. There's been no need for him to attack anyone, the finishes so far haven't suited him. His best chances of putting time into people are Grand Colombiere and Loze. Maybe Villard-de-Lans, if he gets to the summit of St Niziere with the right mix of riders, because there's no way he can solo 20km.Hasn't really tried yet, no MTFs, etc. If it's a MTF today I think he and Pog put seconds into Landa/Bernal.