Tour de France Tour de France 2021 - Enthusiastic laymen's thread

[BlueRoads]

After the huuuge! success of the Giro version, here's the thread for the Tour, two weeks early, but, let's face it, we won't get many new infos until the start anyway.
Pogacar's in form, Roglic won't be seen before the Tour unless on his son's bike, Porte is all good, Carapaz is fine, Padun's fine, Lopez is worse than Padun, but still a lot better than Ben O'Connor, so... let's start talking! Before I start watching football all the time and forget to make this thread, anyway.

Who will win? What will happen? What will the fight for green look like? Will there be a fight for green? Who will be the king of the break-aways, aka KOM?
Will you gain or lose kilos during the Tour? What will be the best soap story of this year's edition? How many stages will be shortened or cancelled? Will we see spectacular climbing times? How will the story develop over three weeks?
Since this is not the offical thread feel free to give all your opinions and thoughts without any expertise or reasoning.
But please don't discuss the title too long, otherwise we risk being pushed into the non-cycling section.

Happy pre-tour-time!
BR

 

[Publiuszam]

I want Bahrain to finish 1 2 in a mountain stage. Then my dream would come true.

 

[Lui98]

I want Bahrain to finish 1 2 in a mountain stage. Then my dream would come true.

So, basically it would be Bahrain doing a Saunier Duval

 

[Publiuszam]

I did not want to go there but since you mentioned it.. yeaaa ..it would be very cool.

 

[Open Horizon]

First stage is a dream stage for MvdP to grab yellow. Only question is, can he contain himself on any of the final 10 hills and wait for the sprint? Either way, it will be a blast to watch.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

After 2 months of break from racing Primoz will be oozing with hunger to compete. I've heard he can't help himself and is already racing with his son on 3-wheel bikes (no gifts of course). What form will he show at the Tour after such an unorthodox approach? It's unknown but IMO there are only two options: either he will be good or superb and I'm leaning towards the latter.

 

[BlueRoads]

First stage is a dream stage for MvdP to grab yellow. Only question is, can he contain himself on any of the final 10 hills and wait for the sprint? Either way, it will be a blast to watch.

Actually it also looks like a very good stage for Pogacar. But then I don't know which stage doesn't look good for Pogacar except for the ones that Ewan will win.
Seriously, I wonder. Will the main contenders just leave this be, because there are bigger things to come? Or might they actually try and go for bonus seconds? (There are bonus seconds, right?)

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Actually it also looks like a very good stage for Pogacar. But then I don't know which stage doesn't look good for Pogacar except for the ones that Ewan will win.
Seriously, I wonder. Will the main contenders just leave this be, because there are bigger things to come? Or might they actually try and go for bonus seconds? (There are bonus seconds, right?)

Pogacar proved to be explosive on climbs, fast solo rider in hilly terrain and even competitive in small groups finishes. He is among favourites in any hilly stage but obviously the GC contenders need to pace their efforts - first two stages, however, look like a good occasion to test legs a bit and fight for some seconds (and both Slovenians should try).

 

[Sciatic]

Actually it also looks like a very good stage for Pogacar. But then I don't know which stage doesn't look good for Pogacar except for the ones that Ewan will win.
Seriously, I wonder. Will the main contenders just leave this be, because there are bigger things to come? Or might they actually try and go for bonus seconds? (There are bonus seconds, right?)

That is a really nice looking 1st stage, as far as Tour 1st stages go. Plus, because there are roughly 3 roundabouts for every 1km of road in Brittany, that’s a lot of brief accelerations in addition to the short steep climbs!

 

[jaylew]

Pogacar has to be the favorite but I wouldn't be surprised if Ineos wins again somehow because...well, Ineos. Haven't they won like 7 of 9 or 10 with 4 different riders?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Who voted for Movistar in the poll? lol

1. pogacar
2. roglic
3. thomas
4. bilbao
5. carapaz

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Very sorry, I didn't read the poll correctly. I thought it read "Which team will go all out in the Tour de France 2021 to try and get their grandad a top 10 place" so I ended up pressing Movistar. Please accept my apologies, I will try better next time.

 

[Gigs_98]

Knowing how Ineos work the winner will probably be Luke Rowe.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Who voted for Movistar in the poll? lol

1. pogacar
2. roglic
3. thomas
4. bilbao
5. carapaz

Maybe there’s a Netflix employee on the forum!!

 

[BlueRoads]

@SafeBet, @Bonimenier, who do you think will win?

 

[Pinot's goat]

Who voted for Movistar in the poll? lol

1. pogacar
2. roglic
3. thomas
4. bilbao
5. carapaz

Is Bilbao just a Bahrain joke?

 

[Pinot's goat]

6 stars Pogacar

5 stars Roglic

4 stars Thomas, Carapaz, Porte

3 stars Lopez, Kelderman, Mas, Uran

2 stars Geoghegan Hart, Gaudu, Buchmann, Kruijswijk, Woods

1 star Quintana, Hamilton, Alaphilippe, Poels, Higuita, O'Connor

 

[Froome]

6 stars Pogacar

5 stars Roglic

4 stars Thomas, Carapaz, Porte

3 stars Lopez, Kelderman, Mas, Geoghegan Hart

2 stars Gaudu, Uran, Padun, G.Martin, Buchmann

1 star Kruijswijk, Quintana, Hamilton, Alaphilippe, Poels

Padun and lopez should have 7 stars ahah.

 

[Froome]

Van der poel will win 2 stages in the first week.
Roglic will finally win the tour, second place for pogacar, third for padun.

 

[Escarabajo]

6 stars Pogacar

5 stars Roglic

4 stars Thomas, Carapaz, Porte

3 stars Lopez, Kelderman, Mas, Geoghegan Hart

2 stars Gaudu, Uran, Padun, G.Martin, Buchmann

1 star Kruijswijk, Quintana, Hamilton, Alaphilippe, Poels

6 stars Pogacar,
5 stars Roglic,
4 stars, Carapaz
2 stars, Lopez
1star Thomas, Porte, Kelderman, Mas, Geoghegan Hart, Gaudu, Uran, Padun, G.Martin, Buchmann, Kruijswijk, Quintana, Hamilton, Alaphilippe, Poels, anybody else.

That's how I see it!

Is not the TT that makes Carapaz or Lopez better choices than Thomas and Porte. That's not the point. It is their attacking mode and spirit that makes them dangerous. Because if it wasn't for that nobody will have a chance anyway.

 

[Bonimenier]

@SafeBet, @Bonimenier, who do you think will win?

Either Alaphilippe, who I think is going full for GC, or Froome, who will finally bounce back!

 

[Rollthedice]

It looks like the Tour of Slovenia held in France plus a guest star from Ecuador.

 

[Koronin]

Who voted for Movistar in the poll? lol

1. pogacar
2. roglic
3. thomas
4. bilbao
5. carapaz

This may surprise you, but it wasn't me. I voted J-V. However, I do think it's very possible that either Mas or Lopez end up finishing in the top 5.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Pogacar is the obvious favorite, but it will be different from last year, when Jumbo did all the work for him. Is UAE strong and experienced enough to control the race over three weeks?

Jumbo doesn't look as dominant as last year. Roglic is shunning publicity; Kruijswijk and Kuss didn't impress in the Dauphiné.

Ineos will probably end up with five riders in the top four, but do they have an individual who's strong enough to win the Tour? Carapaz is looking more and more like an important challenger, but I still have a hard time seeing him as a Tour winner.

Bahrain has stepped it up lately, but Landa has to come back from a heavy crash in the Giro. Movistar and Astana will probably fall short like every year. Superman is in good shape, but will still lose quite a bit in the time trials.

So it will probably be between the Slovenians and Ineos, although I hope one of the outsiders can mingle in.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

six stars: Pogacar, Roglic
four stars: Thomas, Carapaz
three stars: Porte
two stars: Lopez

I rate both Slovenians as top favourites (Pogacar ahead of Roglic but I think that both deserve 6 stars). Other than that Ineos has strongest riders (I rate Thomas & Carapaz ahead of Porte as the latter is more likely to be a domestique). Outside chance for Lopez as well. Any other winner would be shocking.