Tour de France Tour de France 2021 - Enthusiastic laymen's thread

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Which team has the winner of the Tour de France 2021?


  • Total voters
    111
  • Poll closed .
Nope, Brent Van Moer and Harry Sweeny are selected. No Degenkolb either, So I would've expected Kron, but I guess Lotto only cares about Ewan (and maybe a shot at the green jersey this year?). A bit dissapointing to me. Not gonna be seeing any LTS riders in the harder stages, maybe De Gendt but doubt it.

Not that Sweeny is bad ofcourse. He has been riding really well all season and has been riding a lot with the guys that are going to the Tour, but Krön has proven to be able to win.
Yeah, with that team selection, it is clear Lotto is all in for Ewan at the Tour - and nothing else (except of course for De Gendt doing De Gendt things).

I think Kron could have surprised as a break away rider on hilly and mountain stages, maybe even go for polka dots - but that being said, that is hard to do with any degree of success, if your very first GT is the Tour.

Guess we'll have to wait on the Vuelta to see.
 
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Kron said earlier this year, that he wanted to ride the Vuelta, so I doubt, neither him or the team were thinking the Tour was ever a real possibility, but that was of course also before Wellens got ruled out. By the look of it he would have had to force Gilbert out of the squad, and that would have been impossible due to a handful of reasons.

Würtz not being picked by ISN is a clear sign that he needs to leve the team immediately, cause they obviously don't believe in him.
He has helped other riders, he has gotten good results of his own, and he even invited Froome onto his podcast. What more could he have done?
 
Honestly, what do you think about Jack Haig?
I've been thinking who would be the chosen one if Bahrain really goes for it - Poels didn't look great, could show another face in the Tour, but with these showings I don't really see him in that role... Landa... cannot have had the most perfect preparation in case he starts. Will they really support Padun?
Or could it be Haig, after all he was 5th at the Dauphiné...?
Did the team say anything about their leader?
i think they use the Revolutionary formula Survival of the fittest.
One thing i will not watch for sure is Robotic Roglic's Rote Responses at the finish line/conf. I should know them all by now
 
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So for the 1st stage...
Alaphilippe, van der Poel, Pogacar, Roglic, van Aert, Woods, Gaudu, Valverde
Who do you think that final climb suits best? Or will it just depend on the form of the day?
And do Fuglsang, Barguil and Carapaz have a chance to compete for the win as well?
Do you see any chance of something happening before the Mur?
Can you imagine Hirschi being back by then?

I suppose it will just come down to Mathieu vs. Julian, but I really wonder if Woods can surprise.
 
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Because of maths and cycling history.
What's the math here? Recent cycling history is that Pogacar won last year over Roglic and both are the 2 strongest favorites based on what they've done the last couple of years and continue to do this year. I think Carapaz should be third favorite and wouldn't be surprised if he won. Thomas has an outside shot but the 2 favorites are better than him in every way possible. TGH and Porte have no shot. So the third highest number of votes seems right and Ineos should be proud of that.
 
So for the 1st stage...
Alaphilippe, van der Poel, Pogacar, Roglic, van Aert, Woods, Gaudu, Valverde
Who do you think that final climb suits best? Or will it just depend on the form of the day?
And do Fuglsang, Barguil and Carapaz have a chance to compete for the win as well?
Do you see any chance of something happening before the Mur?
Can you imagine Hirschi being back by then?

I suppose it will just come down to Mathieu vs. Julian, but I really wonder if Woods can surprise.
Ala, MvdP, Van Aert. Too easy for Gaudu and Woods.
 
So for the 1st stage...
Alaphilippe, van der Poel, Pogacar, Roglic, van Aert, Woods, Gaudu, Valverde
Who do you think that final climb suits best? Or will it just depend on the form of the day?
And do Fuglsang, Barguil and Carapaz have a chance to compete for the win as well?
Do you see any chance of something happening before the Mur?
Can you imagine Hirschi being back by then?

I suppose it will just come down to Mathieu vs. Julian, but I really wonder if Woods can surprise.
I think the first km of the final climb will wreck quite a few riders, especially if the peloton is drilling it hard at that point.


But it's really down to the usual puncheurs, of which I'd place Alaphilippe & van der Poel as favorites, with an outside chance for Roglic & Pogacar as well (especially if Roglic gets a great lead-out from his teammates after the initial 14% creates a huge selection). Those would be my 4 picks, with the ubiquitous Slovenians also interested in the bonus seconds.
 
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What's the math here? Recent cycling history is that Pogacar won last year over Roglic and both are the 2 strongest favorites based on what they've done the last couple of years and continue to do this year. I think Carapaz should be third favorite and wouldn't be surprised if he won. Thomas has an outside shot but the 2 favorites are better than him in every way possible. TGH and Porte have no shot. So the third highest number of votes seems right and Ineos should be proud of that.
Pogacar has nothing to do with this conversation.

Roglic has a weak team, has never closed the deal when it matters other than at afterthought Vueltas. He has a weird prep, sky/ineos have won every tour in last 9 years when their main GC threat has finished. Carapaz had basically tied with him over their past 2 GC contests and Thomas is at least as good of a GC time trailer as Roglic, and they still have 2 other cards to play after that.

There is probably at least a 1in 3 or 4 chance that something negative happens to Roglic which means Jumbo's GC chance is over. He may be nearly twice as likely to win than any one of the ineos riders, but not all 4 together.
 
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I think the first km of the final climb will wreck quite a few riders, especially if the peloton is drilling it hard at that point.


But it's really down to the usual puncheurs, of which I'd place Alaphilippe & van der Poel as favorites, with an outside chance for Roglic & Pogacar as well (especially if Roglic gets a great lead-out from his teammates after the initial 14% creates a huge selection). Those would be my 4 picks, with the ubiquitous Slovenians also interested in the bonus seconds.
It's more of a sprint than uphill punch-out. Longwy was more punchy than that finish, even Cherbourg was more difficult in the end. Colbrelli is an outsider, Bling would be too if in shape.
 
It's more of a sprint than uphill punch-out. Longwy was more punchy than that finish, even Cherbourg was more difficult in the end. Colbrelli is an outsider, Bling would be too if in shape.
Right, but I think the GC favorite teams, DQS & Alpecin will be setting such a huge temp that it will become something a bit harder than the profile suggests, due to the speed of the approach & nervousness of the peloton at that point.

And I don't know many riders who can get over 1 km at 14% & still have the power to outsprint the four riders I mentioned. Who knows, maybe I'm wrong, but I suspect the GC guys will want to start the Tour with a bang.
 
Pogacar has nothing to do with this conversation.

Roglic has a weak team, has never closed the deal when it matters other than at afterthought Vueltas. He has a weird prep, sky/ineos have won every tour in last 9 years when their main GC threat has finished. Carapaz had basically tied with him over their past 2 GC contests and Thomas is at least as good of a GC time trailer as Roglic, and they still have 2 other cards to play after that.

There is probably at least a 1in 3 or 4 chance that something negative happens to Roglic which means Jumbo's GC chance is over. He may be nearly twice as likely to win than any one of the ineos riders, but not all 4 together.
These polls are nonsense. Anyway, if the question is, which team will win, then usually people will pick the one which they think to be the most likely. If everyone did that, and everyone knew the "right" odds, the poll wouldn't show the "right" odds. It would have all votes to one option.
 
It's 1 km at 8.8 % with a maximum gradient of 14 %. With the last 1.5 km at 3.2 %.

I'd guess 30-50 riders end on same time as the winner.
Maybe, but who will the top 5 guys be? I'm just musing here but the Vuelta has had a few of these small wall finishes (some even less impressive) & it's the GC guys who end up fighting for the win, such as this one last year:

 
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Pogacar has nothing to do with this conversation.

Roglic has a weak team, has never closed the deal when it matters other than at afterthought Vueltas. He has a weird prep, sky/ineos have won every tour in last 9 years when their main GC threat has finished. Carapaz had basically tied with him over their past 2 GC contests and Thomas is at least as good of a GC time trailer as Roglic, and they still have 2 other cards to play after that.

There is probably at least a 1in 3 or 4 chance that something negative happens to Roglic which means Jumbo's GC chance is over. He may be nearly twice as likely to win than any one of the ineos riders, but not all 4 together.
I agree. I was just watching random footage of the 2001 PR where Hincapie was on his own against 3 guys from another team and they took him to the slaughter even though he was clearly the strongest rider. Ineos will likely end up with at least 1 guy beating Roglic and/or Pogacar, just based on whoever has the right set of circumstances.
 
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