Tour de France Tour de France 2021 - Enthusiastic laymen's thread

[Pirazziattacks]

Pogacar has nothing to do with this conversation.

Roglic has a weak team, has never closed the deal when it matters other than at afterthought Vueltas. He has a weird prep, sky/ineos have won every tour in last 9 years when their main GC threat has finished. Carapaz had basically tied with him over their past 2 GC contests and Thomas is at least as good of a GC time trailer as Roglic, and they still have 2 other cards to play after that.

There is probably at least a 1in 3 or 4 chance that something negative happens to Roglic which means Jumbo's GC chance is over. He may be nearly twice as likely to win than any one of the ineos riders, but not all 4 together.

How do you think Ineos is going to play this- use their strength in numbers to attack the opposition, or ride at the front like they always do. That works fine when they've got the strongest team and the strongest rider or riders in the race, and it's hard to argue for the second part this time. I find it hard to see Ineos doing anything other than using their strength in the train unless one or both of their leaders loses too much time and they have to get creative. If Richie and TGH are still within striking distance after doing a lot of grunt work I'll be very surprised.

Of course it's possible Ineos will do things differently this time, but I'll believe it when I see it. You're talking up the question marks over Roglic and Jumbo while glossing over the fact that Thomas hasn't shown he'll be able to climb with the best while Porte seems convinced he's there as a domestique. Barring a radical shift in the way Ineos races or Thomas going to another level this should come down to Carapaz vs the Slovenians.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Wright Said Fred

At last someone got it

 

[CyclistAbi]

Yeah, this guy Roglič.

It's not like he has won anything. And just look at his team.

 

[Escarabajo]

I feel it is rather safe to say, unless something unexpected happens, that cyclists that can't produce a good TT are likely not going to podium this year?

I'll put it this way, and this is how I look at it. If from all the good Time Trialers in the race they cannot beat the Slovenians in the TT then what is the point. It is a moot point what you said. Because they will get destroyed in the mountains. That's why my answer is No. Race can only be won by an attacking riders or cross winds/ ambush. Not the TT because the Slovenians are the best at the TT and the best in the mountains.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I'll put it this way, and this is how I look at it. If from all the good Time Trialers in the race they cannot beat the Slovenians in the TT then what is the point. It is a moot point what you said. Because they will get destroyed in the mountains. That's why my answer is No. Race can only be won by an attacking riders or cross winds/ ambush. Not the TT because the Slovenians are the best at the TT and the best in the mountains.

As there are 3 podium places and only two Slovenians considered they could finish there. My question went more in the direction if on this years Tour edition a cyclist that is considered to be a rather non good TTer stands a realistic chance to podium. For example Carapaz comes to my mind.

 

[BigCoward]

Yeah, this guy Roglič.

It's not like he has won anything. And just look at his team.

He has massively underperformed In 3 week tours.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Did he?

After he openly went for GC he has finished one Giro, where he was injured and had stomach issues, still finishing on the podium. One second place at Tour and two Vuelta wins. I don't see on what ground we could say he is a massive under-performer on GTs.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar has nothing to do with this conversation.

Roglic has a weak team, has never closed the deal when it matters other than at afterthought Vueltas. He has a weird prep, sky/ineos have won every tour in last 9 years when their main GC threat has finished. Carapaz had basically tied with him over their past 2 GC contests and Thomas is at least as good of a GC time trailer as Roglic, and they still have 2 other cards to play after that.

There is probably at least a 1in 3 or 4 chance that something negative happens to Roglic which means Jumbo's GC chance is over. He may be nearly twice as likely to win than any one of the ineos riders, but not all 4 together.

Actually Pogacar has a lot to do with this conversation. If Roglic is the only guy capable of beating Pogacar then him having greater chance than Ineos maybe makes sense. Even if something negative happens to him this doesn't mean that Ineos wins the race (Pogacar's chances would actually increase even more without Primoz).

Obviously this is just speculation, not saying that poll results reflect riders' strength perfecty or that Roglic is the only guy who can beat Pogacar (although it can be the case).

 

[CyclistAbi]

Another sign Roglič might be heavily under-performing on GTs is he finished on a podium of a GT race four times in the last two seasons.

P.S. The clues are there.

 

[Escarabajo]

As there are 3 podium places and only two Slovenians considered they could finish there. My question went more in the direction if on this years Tour edition a cyclist that is considered to be a rather non good TTer stands a realistic chance to podium. For example Carapaz comes to my mind.

If you target is to podium then Yes. If your target is to win then it needs a different tactic. IMHO.

 

[BigCoward]

Did he?

After he openly went for GC he has finished one Giro, where he was injured and had stomach issues, still finishing on the podium. One second place at Tour and two Vuelta wins. I don't see on what ground we could say he is a massive under-performer on GTs.

He has won 2 vueltas which nobody targets for the season. And lost 2 tours/giro he should have won. For me that is underperformed, when he has been the dominant one week stage racer for at least 3 years.

 

[BigCoward]

Another sign Roglič might be heavily under-performing on GTs is he finished on a podium of a GT race four times in the last two seasons.

P.S. The clues are there.

You don't seem to know the difference between underperformed and unsuccessful.

 

[Summoned]

You don't seem to know the difference between underperformed and unsuccessful.

In all fairness, you did say massively underperformed. I think the reaction is to the hyperbole as much as anything.

 

[bajbar]

You don't seem to know the difference between underperformed and unsuccessful.

So the only way he would perform up to your standard is if he would win 4 GTs in the last two years. Seems reasonable. Since none of the currently active riders ever managed to achieve such a feat I would have to make an assumption you consider Roglič the greatest GT racer of the last 20 years who has been slightly underperforming by only finishing 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st instead of 4 wins.

And above all that, he managed to get those results while being clearly unsuited to 3 week racing. Quite amazing.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@BigCoward

In last 3 GTs Roglič outperformed Ineos and was as such more successful, though.

 

[BigCoward]

So the only way he would perform up to your standard is if he would win 4 GTs in the last two years. Seems reasonable. Since none of the currently active riders ever managed to achieve such a feat I would have to make an assumption you consider Roglič the greatest GT racer of the last 20 years who has been slightly underperforming by only finishing 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st instead of 4 wins.

And above all that, he managed to get those results while being clearly unsuited to 3 week racing. Quite amazing.

If he had won the tour and the giro he should have won, he would have performed. But he didn't, he shat the bed.
I think he is the best week long stage racer of the last 20 years, he might just scrape the top 10 as a 3 week racer.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@BigCoward

For Giro i might agree with you. But i don't know. He did had stomach issues and he might have shat the bad. No shame in that.

 

[RedheadDane]

Right. Which National Champions are we (likely) to be seeing in the Tour? Asterix denotes confirmed starter.

Road Race
Fraile
Skujins
Colbrelli
Mohoric
Van Aert*
Sagan*
Konrad*
Konovalovas*

Time Trial
Izagirre
Skujins
T. Martin*
Asgreen
Küng*

+ one Road Race World Champion!

Please tell me if I've missed any.

 

[RedheadDane]

BEX wins the prize for best line-up presentation!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1406869719278403585

 

[bNator]

If he had won the tour and the giro he should have won, he would have performed. But he didn't, he shat the bed.
I think he is the best week long stage racer of the last 20 years, he might just scrape the top 10 as a 3 week racer.

Roglic can actually have his ass handed to him by Pogacar each and every year from now on on every GT they compete together and he's still going to be a great 3w stage racer. Everyone finishing 5 GTs in a row in top 5 is great 3w stage racer. No exception. Is he the best stage racer of his period? Remains to be seen - in lieu of Pogacar unlikely. Since Roglic started going for GC, he is top 3 3w stage racer. Now if you are going to refute that, I'm expecting you list names of more than 2 guys that are better in your opinion....

And yes, I agree, he is top 10 3w stage racer of the past 20 years. Achieving top 3 current and top 10 of the past 20 years while still massively undeperforming - I'm starting to think you might in fact be his biggest fan on this forum. Incredibly disappointed each time he gets 2nd

 

[Pinot's goat]

Roglic can actually have his ass handed to him by Pogacar each and every year from now on on every GT they compete together and he's still going to be a great 3w stage racer. Everyone finishing 5 GTs in a row in top 5 is great 3w stage racer. No exception. Is he the best stage racer of his period? Remains to be seen - in lieu of Pogacar unlikely. Since Roglic started going for GC, he is top 3 3w stage racer. Now if you are going to refute that, I'm expecting you list names of more than 2 guys that are better in your opinion....

And yes, I agree, he is top 10 3w stage racer of the past 20 years. Achieving top 3 current and top 10 of the past 20 years while still massively undeperforming - I'm starting to think you might in fact be his biggest fan on this forum. Incredibly disappointed each time he gets 2nd

At their best of the current active riders I rank Froome, Pogacar, Dumoulin, Nibali and Carapaz higher than Roglic over 3 weeks.

 

[CyclistAbi]

At their best of the current active riders I rank Froome, Pogacar, Dumoulin, Nibali and Carapaz higher than Roglic over 3 weeks.

On some GT races for sure but on some other GT races i am sure that Roglič can beat each and every one from that list.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I just saw that Bike Exchange are bringing Chaves, he could be a good bet for the Polka dot jersey.

 

[Gargamel35]

At their best of the current active riders I rank Froome, Pogacar, Dumoulin, Nibali and Carapaz higher than Roglic over 3 weeks.

Froome and Nibali are old news. Pogačar is not there yet, but he can surpass all of them soon. Carapaz is NOT higher then Roglič in any way.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Froome and Nibali are old news.

This has nothing to do with my point, I said at their best they were better 3 week racers than Roglic is now.