How do you think Ineos is going to play this- use their strength in numbers to attack the opposition, or ride at the front like they always do. That works fine when they've got the strongest team and the strongest rider or riders in the race, and it's hard to argue for the second part this time. I find it hard to see Ineos doing anything other than using their strength in the train unless one or both of their leaders loses too much time and they have to get creative. If Richie and TGH are still within striking distance after doing a lot of grunt work I'll be very surprised.Pogacar has nothing to do with this conversation.
Roglic has a weak team, has never closed the deal when it matters other than at afterthought Vueltas. He has a weird prep, sky/ineos have won every tour in last 9 years when their main GC threat has finished. Carapaz had basically tied with him over their past 2 GC contests and Thomas is at least as good of a GC time trailer as Roglic, and they still have 2 other cards to play after that.
There is probably at least a 1in 3 or 4 chance that something negative happens to Roglic which means Jumbo's GC chance is over. He may be nearly twice as likely to win than any one of the ineos riders, but not all 4 together.
Of course it's possible Ineos will do things differently this time, but I'll believe it when I see it. You're talking up the question marks over Roglic and Jumbo while glossing over the fact that Thomas hasn't shown he'll be able to climb with the best while Porte seems convinced he's there as a domestique. Barring a radical shift in the way Ineos races or Thomas going to another level this should come down to Carapaz vs the Slovenians.