Tour de France Tour De France 2021, stage 1 (Brest-Landerneau, 197.8 km)

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I hope they rideultra hard in previous climbs, so that the peleton is already thin coming into last 10ks. Else it will be hard to watch.
At least I will not have to watch Pinot crash. (unless they show previous years flashback but that would be mean).
 
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I hope they rideultra hard in previous climbs, so that the peleton is already thin coming into last 10ks. Else it will be hard to watch.
I hope so, but I don't think the previous hills are difficult enough to put most sprinters in difficulty, even if raced hard. Cav, sure, but who else?

So many options available in this area and the came up with this?! I mean, they could have loaded the course with steep 4th and 3rd category climbs.
 
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Yeah as someone has said, MVDP can be prone to bad positioning and given that it is his first GT and first TdF he might underestimate the absolute carnage that is often stage 1.
Beginning of the final climb being quite narrow and no 3km rule will result in a crazy amount of fighting for positions both for teams wanting the stage as well as panicking GC contenders not wanting to lose time. He can`t afford positioning like on the Poggio.
 
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Alaphilippe:

“I’ve just reconnoitred the first stage, and it’s a really nice finale, it’s harder than I had imagined. It was very important to recon those last kilometres,” said Alaphilippe, who reckoned the finish at Landerneau is tougher than that at Mûr-de-Bretagne.

“I find the finishing climb on stage 1 very hard, because after the steep part, it doesn’t descend and that’s often what hurts the legs the most. I think there are people who’ll be surprised.”

“It will suit Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert, too, even though it’s a very hard finale, because you never know what to expect with riders like them,” Alaphilippe said. "It will be a very interesting finale. Whoever wins on Saturday will have to make a very violent effort, and they’re riders who can hurt themselves on stages like that.”


sounds promising
 
Very difficult last 4k in this opener as there is so many big sprint trains and some smaller that build up huge speed to it before final climb starts and those roundabouts and chicanes in that speed. o_O:oops: Just horror unless some quality small group goes near end, well not likely..
 
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MVDP is the logical favourite but could easily find himself hobbled by his tendency towards being out of position and leaving too much to do at the very end.

Might be a little too tough for Colbrelli although he was flying in the Dauphine and not sure Sagan has it still to win in this company.

My tip and the value bet at 20/1 for the stage win is Roglic.
 
The finish is simillar to stage 6 of Paris-Nice this year... but the climb here is 1km longer - and that first kilometer is almost 10% gradient. If a team really drills it from the bottom I expect a group of 30-35 riders max coming to the line if not less.

And I am also hoping that the pace is high before the last part, so the group will be reduced. Surely sprinters and their teams will realise the finish is too hard for them and will not contest the stage. If the group is smaller, hopefully that reduces the chance of race defining crashes. Having a good team to bring you to position in the last 10k or so will be the key.
 
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MVDP is the logical favourite but could easily find himself hobbled by his tendency towards being out of position and leaving too much to do at the very end.

Might be a little too tough for Colbrelli although he was flying in the Dauphine and not sure Sagan has it still to win in this company.

My tip and the value bet at 20/1 for the stage win is Roglic.
tbh the whole positioning thing is more with flat ending stages.

he's there 9/10 times when it's a finale like this...
 
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I think Magnus Cort has a shot here. He climbs better than Colbrelli or Sagan, and is arguably as fast or faster than VDP on the last 250m flat drag. That said, his willingness to fight for proper positioning may put him on the back foot.
 
I can see them making top 10, but how are they gonna beat MvdP or Ala in the final flattened 250m?
They need to beat them before the final flattened 250m.

A well timed attack and hesitation in the peloton is their best bet- like Vuillermoz' Mur de Bretagne win.

Alternatively the first 1.5km of the climb need to be raced so fast that non-climbers have nothing left in the tank. Given that GC teams might be involved in trying to gain time against each other, it's not impossible. 1.4km with minimum 7% and maximum 11% is no joke. The problem for Woods and Martin though is that they don't have a strong team to deliver them in a good position for what's very likely to be an insane positioning battle.
 
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Their problem is that they really don't have a team that can help them to get into the right position on a hectic stage like this. It has never been their biggest strength and who can help them on this kind of terrain, maybe Froome?
Froome struggles most with punchy terrain so they are on their own, they should have picked Mads Wurtz.
 
Froome struggles most with punchy terrain so they are on their own, they should have picked Mads Wurtz.
Yeah, that's why bringing both Froome and a token Israeli rider was just a really bad call.
They really lack a rider who can help those 2 on hilly/punchy terrain. Bevin already rode the Giro and De Marchi is probably not ready after his Giro crash, so Mads Würtz Schmidt would have been the obvious choice.
 
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