Tour de France Tour De France 2021, stage 1 (Brest-Landerneau, 197.8 km)

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Yeah, that's why bringing both Froome and a token Israeli rider was just a really bad call.
They really lack a rider who can help those 2 on hilly/punchy terrain. Bevin already rode the Giro and De Marchi is probably not ready after his Giro crash, so Mads Würtz Schmidt would have been the obvious choice.
I disgaree, I think Grepiel is the inclusion that makes no sense since all the big guys on the team have said Woods is their main job so they are bringing a sprinter who managed 1 top 10 at last year's TDF and giving him no support. Froome is needed for the longer climbs since he is actually the 3rd best climber on the team. Goldstein can do a better job than Greipel from what I have seen when it comes to dom work and breaks.
 
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I disgaree, I think Grepiel is the inclusion that makes no sense since all the big guys on the team have said Woods is their main job so they are bringing a sprinter who managed 1 top 10 at last year's TDF and giving him no support. Froome is needed for the longer climbs since he is actually the 3rd best climber on the team. Goldstein can do a better job than Greipel from what I have seen when it comes to dom work and breaks.
I disagree, because Greipel is Greipel. They shouldn't have brought Boivin.
 
Their problem is that they really don't have a team that can help them to get into the right position on a hectic stage like this. It has never been their biggest strength and who can help them on this kind of terrain, maybe Froome?
I remember an article with Martin in his Quickstep days, talking of how Kittel delivered him to the foot of the Mur de Huy in the Tour. I can see Greipel and Zabel being used in a similar role here. And if Greipel and Zabel have been dropped before the foot of the final climb, then there should be plenty of space to maneuver in a smaller peloton.

Roglic is another who’s barely been mentioned as a possible stage 1 winner. And I can’t shake the thought that Porte might have the acceleration on the steep part to properly distance the sprinters.
 
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It should be interesting. Obviously classics dominators (like MVP, WVA, Ala and Valverde) stand out but explosive GC riders (like the Slovenian duo) will have chances as well. Last few hundred meters are easier so maybe MVP with his brute power will be fastest there (if he doesn't get distanced earlier).
 
Dan Martin accelerating away from MvdP on the sort, steep section?

Yeah, I can see why bookies are willing to reward people who gamble on that scenario with 60 times their input :smilecat:
Biggest favorites doesn't always win. I too favor Van Der Poel for this stage, but it is very far from done deal.
Dan Martin wasn't a top favorite in 2018 either, but he did it, beating Valverde, Alaphilippe and Sagan in the process, far bigger favorites according to the bookies.
 
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none of the final climbs are long enough to trouble VDP. in a way that is suggested here (by others attacking)
nor can the steepness be a real issue when it's that short. In fact that would be an advantage really.

The fact that the final few hundred meters are only 2% is more a disadvantage to VDP and better for guys like Van Aert who have more speed on the flat
 
Dan Martin accelerating away from MvdP on the sort, steep section?

Yeah, I can see why bookies are willing to reward people who gamble on that scenario with 60 times their input :smilecat:
Was a time, not too long ago either, when Martin would be odds-on to accelerate away from anyone in the peloton on that climb, (except Valverde). It's a not unreasonable prospect that he might wind back the clock. But also, anyone who tries to reel him in will know they have Woods following, which is a card Martin hasn't had available to him in the past.

Woods and Martin have both won hard stages of hard WT races this year. so their form is good, and the first 2 stages of the Tour this year suit them both. They're going to be trying on both days to get something for the team.
 
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The fact that the final few hundred meters are only 2% is more a disadvantage to VDP and better for guys like Van Aert who have more speed on the flat
Yeah, MvdP should make sure to drop Van Art before the flat section.

We've seen all year (WC CX, Strade, E3, Ronde) that Van Aert doesn't even come close to MvdP's kick on short ramps. It's probably MvdP's biggest advantage over his rival.
 
none of the final climbs are long enough to trouble VDP. in a way that is suggested here (by others attacking)
nor can the steepness be a real issue when it's that short. In fact that would be an advantage really.

The fact that the final few hundred meters are only 2% is more a disadvantage to VDP and better for guys like Van Aert who have more speed on the flat
Yeah the specifics of the climb really favor the sprinters rather than the puncheurs, and the firs 1.5km doesn't look exactly hard enough to get much of a big acceleration out either.

Maybe if I look at it like a harder version of the Cauberg something might actually happen by virtue of domestiques getting shelled as well?

Anyway, from the way Van Aert is talking he gets to go for his own chances in stages like these.
 
I have absolutely no idea who will take this. The rain and the no neutralization thing will make this stage crazy. I can even see someone like Roglic try to go for the bonus seconds already, perhaps even by having VA work for him (despite what the CN article said).

A number of riders can win this but man, I just hope Sagan is up there with the best. I want to see the great Sagan-VdP-VA-JA showdown we were promised years ago finally happen.
 
Yeah the specifics of the climb really favor the sprinters rather than the puncheurs, and the firs 1.5km doesn't look exactly hard enough to get much of a big acceleration out either.
Don't underestimate the effect of the preceding 50k full of punchy climbs. Alpecin Fenix will almost certainly make the race hard to kill the sprinters' legs. MvdP said he used this tactic in the Tour de Suisse with success, and I'm certain they'll repeat that strategy.
 
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I like the stage 1 parcours for the opening stage of this year's TDF. The thing I most hope for is no crashes, especially no crashes that would affect the GC competition. ... I hope I haven't jinxed the whole peloton.
 
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