Tour de France Tour De France 2021, stage 1 (Brest-Landerneau, 197.8 km)

[Pinot's goat]

Yeah, that's why bringing both Froome and a token Israeli rider was just a really bad call.
They really lack a rider who can help those 2 on hilly/punchy terrain. Bevin already rode the Giro and De Marchi is probably not ready after his Giro crash, so Mads Würtz Schmidt would have been the obvious choice.

I disgaree, I think Grepiel is the inclusion that makes no sense since all the big guys on the team have said Woods is their main job so they are bringing a sprinter who managed 1 top 10 at last year's TDF and giving him no support. Froome is needed for the longer climbs since he is actually the 3rd best climber on the team. Goldstein can do a better job than Greipel from what I have seen when it comes to dom work and breaks.

 

[Red Rick]

I would rate Roglic for this finish if the steepest part were near the finish rather than the final 700m being ~2%.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I disgaree, I think Grepiel is the inclusion that makes no sense since all the big guys on the team have said Woods is their main job so they are bringing a sprinter who managed 1 top 10 at last year's TDF and giving him no support. Froome is needed for the longer climbs since he is actually the 3rd best climber on the team. Goldstein can do a better job than Greipel from what I have seen when it comes to dom work and breaks.

I disagree, because Greipel is Greipel. They shouldn't have brought Boivin.

 

[Blanco]

I can see them making top 10, but how are they gonna beat MvdP or Ala in the final flattened 250m?

By escaping earlier, like Martin himself did on Mur de Bretagne 2018

 

[Blanco]

We will get the 2nd oldest stage winner in Tour history on this stage...

 

[gregrowlerson]

We will get the 2nd oldest stage winner in Tour history on this stage...

Nah.

Woods will win after some wonderful wheel sucking

 

[Leinster]

Their problem is that they really don't have a team that can help them to get into the right position on a hectic stage like this. It has never been their biggest strength and who can help them on this kind of terrain, maybe Froome?

I remember an article with Martin in his Quickstep days, talking of how Kittel delivered him to the foot of the Mur de Huy in the Tour. I can see Greipel and Zabel being used in a similar role here. And if Greipel and Zabel have been dropped before the foot of the final climb, then there should be plenty of space to maneuver in a smaller peloton.

Roglic is another who’s barely been mentioned as a possible stage 1 winner. And I can’t shake the thought that Porte might have the acceleration on the steep part to properly distance the sprinters.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

idk Porte seems too far fetched. Outside of TDU and P-N, he's won a grand total of 1 combined WT-level road stages and one day races in his entire career. A Porte attack with none of the 100+ faster finishers being able to follow doesn't seem likely.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It should be interesting. Obviously classics dominators (like MVP, WVA, Ala and Valverde) stand out but explosive GC riders (like the Slovenian duo) will have chances as well. Last few hundred meters are easier so maybe MVP with his brute power will be fastest there (if he doesn't get distanced earlier).

 

[Open Horizon]

By escaping earlier, like Martin himself did on Mur de Bretagne 2018

Dan Martin accelerating away from MvdP on the sort, steep section?

Yeah, I can see why bookies are willing to reward people who gamble on that scenario with 60 times their input

 

[Blanco]

Dan Martin accelerating away from MvdP on the sort, steep section?

Yeah, I can see why bookies are willing to reward people who gamble on that scenario with 60 times their input

Biggest favorites doesn't always win. I too favor Van Der Poel for this stage, but it is very far from done deal.
Dan Martin wasn't a top favorite in 2018 either, but he did it, beating Valverde, Alaphilippe and Sagan in the process, far bigger favorites according to the bookies.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

none of the final climbs are long enough to trouble VDP. in a way that is suggested here (by others attacking)
nor can the steepness be a real issue when it's that short. In fact that would be an advantage really.

The fact that the final few hundred meters are only 2% is more a disadvantage to VDP and better for guys like Van Aert who have more speed on the flat

 

[Leinster]

Dan Martin accelerating away from MvdP on the sort, steep section?

Yeah, I can see why bookies are willing to reward people who gamble on that scenario with 60 times their input

Was a time, not too long ago either, when Martin would be odds-on to accelerate away from anyone in the peloton on that climb, (except Valverde). It's a not unreasonable prospect that he might wind back the clock. But also, anyone who tries to reel him in will know they have Woods following, which is a card Martin hasn't had available to him in the past.

Woods and Martin have both won hard stages of hard WT races this year. so their form is good, and the first 2 stages of the Tour this year suit them both. They're going to be trying on both days to get something for the team.

 

[Andre]

"Wout Van Aert" easy win..."Roglic" second..."I don't Know" third

 

[Open Horizon]

The fact that the final few hundred meters are only 2% is more a disadvantage to VDP and better for guys like Van Aert who have more speed on the flat

Yeah, MvdP should make sure to drop Van Art before the flat section.

We've seen all year (WC CX, Strade, E3, Ronde) that Van Aert doesn't even come close to MvdP's kick on short ramps. It's probably MvdP's biggest advantage over his rival.

 

[Red Rick]

none of the final climbs are long enough to trouble VDP. in a way that is suggested here (by others attacking)
nor can the steepness be a real issue when it's that short. In fact that would be an advantage really.

The fact that the final few hundred meters are only 2% is more a disadvantage to VDP and better for guys like Van Aert who have more speed on the flat

Yeah the specifics of the climb really favor the sprinters rather than the puncheurs, and the firs 1.5km doesn't look exactly hard enough to get much of a big acceleration out either.

Maybe if I look at it like a harder version of the Cauberg something might actually happen by virtue of domestiques getting shelled as well?

Anyway, from the way Van Aert is talking he gets to go for his own chances in stages like these.

 

[dutchdescent]

Sagan for the win. Horner is backing me up on it.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucJdrnbaWu4

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

I have absolutely no idea who will take this. The rain and the no neutralization thing will make this stage crazy. I can even see someone like Roglic try to go for the bonus seconds already, perhaps even by having VA work for him (despite what the CN article said).

A number of riders can win this but man, I just hope Sagan is up there with the best. I want to see the great Sagan-VdP-VA-JA showdown we were promised years ago finally happen.

 

[Open Horizon]

Yeah the specifics of the climb really favor the sprinters rather than the puncheurs, and the firs 1.5km doesn't look exactly hard enough to get much of a big acceleration out either.

Don't underestimate the effect of the preceding 50k full of punchy climbs. Alpecin Fenix will almost certainly make the race hard to kill the sprinters' legs. MvdP said he used this tactic in the Tour de Suisse with success, and I'm certain they'll repeat that strategy.

 

[Red Rick]

Don't underestimate the effect of the preceding 50k full of punchy climbs. Alpecin Fenix will almost certainly make the race hard to kill the sprinters' legs. MvdP said he used this tactic in the Tour de Suisse with success, and I'm certain they'll repeat that strategy.

None of the preceding climbs is remotely punchy.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Stage 1 is likely not hard enough for the GC guys to make a difference. Still there is a realistic possibility of that happening. And the mere possibility makes for this to be an exciting Tour start.

The Tour is here.

 

[JosefK]

I like the stage 1 parcours for the opening stage of this year's TDF. The thing I most hope for is no crashes, especially no crashes that would affect the GC competition. ... I hope I haven't jinxed the whole peloton.

 

[topcat]

Roundabouts, chicanes, 90 deg turns, a steep ramp, no 3 km rule. Time to get totally amped for the tour. The last great tour was only 32 years ago. Oh how time flies.

 

[Andre]

probably at least 2 contenders will lose considerable time after stage 1

 

[topt]

"Wout Van Aert" easy win..."Roglic" second..."I don't Know" third

if that is how JV plans to win the Tour than it wont happen, there is no fuc...ng way Wout should take the 10sec