Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 11 (Albertville – Col du Granon Serre Chevalier, 151.7k)

[Rollthedice]

Big break with Van Aert in it. A fast ascent of Télégraphe that leaves Pogi with only McNulty left. Rogla attacks on Galibier, Pogi follows him. Vingegaard counters, Pogi has to respond again. It calms down a bit, and then Rogla attacks again and gets away. He has a minute at the top, two at the bottom of Granon.

We'll have to wait for tomorrow for the conclusion.

...but still about 5 minutes to Froomey who is egg-beating washing-machining up the Granon alone.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

didn't know were to post this but since the mountains really start tomorrow could be relevant for comparison..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544657494882095104

View: https://twitter.com/AlthypeData/status/1544657494882095104/photo/1

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I think it'll be Pogacar, tbh.

The TdF hasn't really started its hardest stages yet & there's been no real massive test for the favorites. Tomorrow is it.

If Roglic attacks early, he'll explode. That would eliminate a tactical option right there for the second half of this race. No, tomorrow is likely going to be a man against man test between Pogacar & the rest on the final climb, i.e. something Jumbo seem to be inviting with their confidence regarding Vingegaard's potential on such a climb.

Personally I predict Enric Mas will be better than people expect & I also predict the gaps won't be crazy at the top of Granon (unless Pog goes totally insane with the watts). The Vingegaard hype might die though.

I was with you until your head scratcher on Mas…tried to be a fan out of respect for Contador by the man didn’t come through on his end of the bargain

 

[Rackham]

I was with you until your head scratcher on Mas…tried to be a fan out of respect for Contador by the man didn’t come through on his end of the bargain

I had to make that post a little more interesting than the usual Pog versus the rest malarkey.

Enric Mas gets my 'one to watch' vote, especially on a climb like Granon. If he has the same form as last year's Vuelta where he also raced really well on the Alto de Velefique (a col which shares certain similarities with Granon), he won't need to attack or channel any Cantadorisms, he'll need only follow & be there or thereabouts at the end.

If I was a betting person (I'm not), after Pog & Vingegaard (the two obvious favorites) I'd say Mas should be the best of the rest considering Superman Lopez isn't here (that's a shame) & Roglic won't go from dislocating his shoulder to stomping Granon 7 days later (at least I don't think he will).

 

[Breh]

didn't know were to post this but since the mountains really start tomorrow could be relevant for comparison..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544657494882095104

View: https://twitter.com/AlthypeData/status/1544657494882095104/photo/1

Nice little graphic.
2006

 

[yaco]

This appears to be the Queen stage of the TDF, and I expect carnage on the Granon - Riders will lose minutes - Expect Pogacar to waltz away with the stage.

 

[Cookster15]

This stage has epic written all over it. Never seen Col du Granon raced since I've followed the sport - 9% to 2,400 metres? And this after the Galibier. Some don't think altitude is such a big deal rather than who has the legs but I recall Pogacar lost 15 seconds to Roglic on Col de la Loze in 2020, so I still wonder?

The following day is another epic stage but then there is an easier day so the GC teams won't hold back as stage 11 is where the race could be set up.

I just hope the threat of Covid can't curb Pogacar so he can send a big message to Jonas to remind the upstart who is the boss.

As for Enric Mas, yes he always rises up the GC like a ninja as others fade. But sadly he is no Alberto Contador.

 

[YavorD]

As for Enric Mas, yes he always rises up the GC like a ninja as others fade. But sadly he is no Alberto Contador.

Well, I can recall in the last 3 GTs he actually lost time/positions in the second half...
When will people stop with that "Mas is always getting better towards the end"?

He can ninja his way to top 5 (or even podium if...) but he isn't exactly getting better compared to the top guns.

 

[Red Rick]

UAE is so bad right now that if you get 2 Jumbo's in the break with at least one of Kuss/Kruijswijk you can yolo Telegraphe already

 

[Escarabajo]

OMG, finally is here!!!
Well, I am not as excited as at the beginning of the race. Nevertheless a good proper mountain stage at last. Why take so long.

 

[Escarabajo]

UAE is so bad right now that if you get 2 Jumbo's in the break with at least one of Kuss/Kruijswijk you can yolo Telegraphe already

But Jumbo is so inept that they won't do that and they will try to go one on one head on against Pogacar.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Well, I can recall in the last 3 GTs he actually lost time/positions in the second half...
When will people stop with that "Mas is always getting better towards the end"?

He can ninja his way to top 5 (or even podium if...) but he isn't exactly getting better compared to the top guns.

He moved up 3 positions in the last week of the TDF in 2020 and 2021.

 

[YavorD]

He moved up 3 positions in the last week of the TDF in 2020 and 2021.

He did..in 2020.
In 2021 he did not. If we use 1st rest day as reference, he overtook Uran, he got beaten by Kelderman, losing 6 extra minutes to Pog in the second half.

 

[Escarabajo]

Vingegård to unleash hell on Granon

At 500 meters to go!!!

 

[Pinot's goat]

He did..in 2020.
In 2021 he did not. If we use 1st rest day as reference, he overtook Uran, he got beaten by Kelderman, losing 6 extra minutes to Pog in the second half.

He gained 6 positions in Vuelta 2018.

 

[YavorD]

He gained 6 positions in Vuelta 2018.

Froome gained 10 positions in Giro 2018. Maybe he'll top 10?

 

[sir fly]

The stage is a better opportunity for tactical games than the grinder day after.

There are lacets, there's Telegraphe, not too much road from the bottom of Galibier to the foot of Granon...
I'm not sure UAE can hold Van Aert and have enough men to mark another Jumbo when takes off.
On the other hand, Van Aert will have a hard time surviving by the two glaciers where he should be the most useful, and Pogačar handled the numbers pretty well so far.

 

[roundabout]

didn't know were to post this but since the mountains really start tomorrow could be relevant for comparison..

Without stages marked this makes Pescheux specials looks like genuine mountain stages

 

[Netserk]

Without stages marked this makes Pescheux specials looks like genuine mountain stages

It wasn't avatar for "Par for Parcours" for nothing.

 

[dercuforever]

Pinot to win the stage from the breakaway!

That's a given

 

[dercuforever]

It wasn't avatar for "Par for Parcours" for nothing.

No one on earth liked those stages, not even Thor Hushovd. I almost regret having the gift of eyesight.

I'am waiting for this stage that could be the most important of the Tour.
In the Giro we saw at Feidala that those stages are deadly.
The Granon looks even harder.
If the breakaway fight is rough, this stage will make differences.

Concerning the winner, my bet is on Pinot, the higher the stronger, because it is "colder".

 

[Extinction]

The stage is a better opportunity for tactical games than the grinder day after.

There are lacets, there's Telegraphe, not too much road from the bottom of Galibier to the foot of Granon...
I'm not sure UAE can hold Van Aert and have enough men to mark another Jumbo when takes off.
On the other hand, Van Aert will have a hard time surviving by the two glaciers where he should be the most useful, and Pogačar handled the numbers pretty well so far.

Pogacar to win by over a minute.

 

[JosefK]

Pog's shoemaker working frantically overnight to fill Pogi's order for extra-padded stomping shoes for stage 11.

 

[JosefK]

Pogacar to win by over a minute.

Yes, this is the stage when the GC will be laid to rest.

 

[Gigs_98]

While this stage is arguably harder than stage 12 and has a more epic feel to it, I agree with the idea that tomorrow is the day for the man against man battle on the final mountain while stage 12 is the one for the potential tactical shenanigans. For TJV sending a bunch of riders up the road and making a huge attack on the Galibier might be a good tactic to exploit Pogacar's weak team but you can do that on the Croix de Fer just as well. However if it turns out that Vingegaard is actually up to the task of fighting Pogacar one on one, making an enormous effort to attack would leave him dangerously isolated. Imagine all their helpers are up front and suddenly Vingegaard has a mechanical in the valley after the Galibier.

That being said, I would still expect a decent battle. If Vingegaard feels good he can't wait for the last few meters where he is no match for Pogacar. Meanwhile if Pogacar feels good I'm certain there won't be a lack of entertainment.