Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 11 (Albertville – Col du Granon Serre Chevalier, 151.7k)

[Red Rick]

While this stage is arguably harder than stage 12 and has a more epic feel to it, I agree with the idea that tomorrow is the day for the man against man battle on the final mountain while stage 12 is the one for the potential tactical shenanigans. For TJV sending a bunch of riders up the road and making a huge attack on the Galibier might be a good tactic to exploit Pogacar's weak team but you can do that on the Croix de Fer just as well. However if it turns out that Vingegaard is actually up to the task of fighting Pogacar one on one, making an enormous effort to attack would leave him dangerously isolated. Imagine all their helpers are up front and suddenly Vingegaard has a mechanical in the valley after the Galibier.

That being said, I would still expect a decent battle. If Vingegaard feels good he can't wait for the last few meters where he is no match for Pogacar. Meanwhile if Pogacar feels good I'm certain there won't be a lack of entertainment.

Galibier north is much harder than CdF east. There's no reason for the group over the Galibier to be over 10 dudes.

Meanwhile, Croix de Fer is the climb where Kruijswijk crested with 7 minutes advantage and didn't even win the stage. On a HARDER stage than this year.

 

[Lorzenz08]

A little crazy prediction : Roglic to attack in last climb, battle it out, and win the stage by 8-15 seconds over Pogacar, Vingegaard 3rd, 20-40 seconds behind.

Little chance happening, but I just want to throw it out there just in case lol

 

[sir fly]

We'll also find out whether the polka-dots will stay inside the range of GC.

 

[Gigs_98]

Galibier north is much harder than CdF east. There's no reason for the group over the Galibier to be over 10 dudes.

Meanwhile, Croix de Fer is the climb where Kruijswijk crested with 7 minutes advantage and didn't even win the stage. On a HARDER stage than this year.

But I mean, what do you suggest? An all out battle on the penultimate climb? Seems a bit unlikely with this long in the Tour to go and the gap between the front two still relatively small. If there was an all out battle I agree Galibier would be the place to hold it off, but if we agree there are only gonna be tactical moves from far out in the next two days then you might as well make them on the CdF. That climb is still easily hard enough to completely decimate a weaker team and make an attack you don't expect Pogacar to follow anyway.

Also worth noting that due to the harder start, stage 12 will likely have a bigger break to bridge to.

 

[hfer07]

Nairo Quintana will try but won't be able to do a damn thing

 

[Sciatic]

I’m hoping Bardet has the form to attack—UAE and JV might not consider him as much of a GC threat as some others in the bottom 5 ( Yates, Mas) and let him go if he attacks toward the top of the Galibier or at the bottom of the Granon. I think Yates will be get a little more attention since he’s on a relatively strong team. Would love for Nairo to launch but I think he’s just be trying to follow wheels tomorrow.

 

[Bonimenier]

JV should Skyneos train it with Roglic in a Porte role. Check how Vingegaard does against Pogacar on long climbs.

 

[sir fly]

But I mean, what do you suggest? An all out battle on the penultimate climb? Seems a bit unlikely with this long in the Tour to go and the gap between the front two still relatively small. If there was an all out battle I agree Galibier would be the place to hold it off, but if we agree there are only gonna be tactical moves from far out in the next two days then you might as well make them on the CdF. That climb is still easily hard enough to completely decimate a weaker team and make an attack you don't expect Pogacar to follow anyway.

Also worth noting that due to the harder start, stage 12 will likely have a bigger break to bridge to.

The thing is, Thursday doesn't leave much room for the rouleurs.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think it'll be Pogacar, tbh.

The TdF hasn't really started its hardest stages yet & there's been no real massive test for the favorites. Tomorrow is it.

If Roglic attacks early, he'll explode. That would eliminate a tactical option right there for the second half of this race. No, tomorrow is likely going to be a man against man test between Pogacar & the rest on the final climb, i.e. something Jumbo seem to be inviting with their confidence regarding Vingegaard's potential on such a climb.

Personally I predict Enric Mas will be better than people expect & I also predict the gaps won't be crazy at the top of Granon (unless Pog goes totally insane with the watts). The Vingegaard hype might die though.

Not really surprising since you have been on the Roglic-bandwagon all Tour and complaining about Wout, Vingegaard etc. left and right. It sure would net you some enjoyment that you were right all along and the whole team shoulda been built upon Roglic when Vingegaard inevitably fails, wouldnt it?

 

[hayneplane]

I'm going to have to record the stage, avoid the news, and watch as live tomorrow

I do that every day, follow for a while on PCS and this forum then about halfway through avoid any sites/social media where I might risk seeing updates and watch in full when home with benefit of zipping through ad breaks and valley road sections.

 

[gregrowlerson]

A little crazy prediction : Roglic to attack in last climb, battle it out, and win the stage by 8-15 seconds over Pogacar, Vingegaard 3rd, 20-40 seconds behind.

Little chance happening, but I just want to throw it out there just in case lol

Not crazy at all imo, a very likely scenario. Roglic is not an immediate threat to those guys who may well mark each other (and have a bigger showdown on stage 12).

 

[MrTea1976]

Long range Froome attack like the 2018 Giro.

Seriously, I think Roglic comes back into the top ten.

Interesting to see how long the current 4-8 can hang in there with Pog/JV.

 

[Panda Claws]

Geraint the paint will make Pogacar faint

 

[Peyroteo94]

This is now or never for jumbo. If they can't beat Pogacar, who can be ill with covid-19 and doesn't have a full team anymore, they will never win the Tour

 

[movingtarget]

Numerous battles. Ewan with the time cut. Froome to make the top 30. Pog versus the gloomy Dane for the throne and of course Pinot will battle himself...........

 

[Big Doopie]

Jumbo regularly has 4-5 riders finishing in the front group. So…

Use these on the Galibier to fully isolate Pog.

Rog to attack near top. Vingo shadows Pog.

If Pog ultimately pegs Rog, Vingo must attack over the top.

The TDF (barring Covid) can only be won by these three riders. Same as always no matter how hard you try to artificially alter the inevitable by stupid route design. Lemond said that you could always count the real candidates for a TDF win on one hand, and often less…

 

[Tonton]

We'll also find out whether the polka-dots will stay inside the range of GC.

Great point, and, let's imagine a French rider in the breakaway. Atop Le Galibier, if the gap is big go for it, and the polka dot jersey comes with it. You won't be able to do much the next day, but you wear the jersey and millions are watching.

If the gap is small, go economy after Le Galibier , wear the polka-dot on Bastille day with some gas in the tank and maybe make the break. Give it all, be the hero even if you don't win.

The makeup of the break tomorrow will dictate some team tactics, Pog may decide to begin his claim to the throne by destroying everyone in Merckx fashion. Meanwhile, for the podium, three vultures from an English team are flying around two Frenchmen. History all over again . Will it be Azincourt or Formigny?

I love the lacets by the way. And the Granon, I watched the '86 live, it was drama and hurt, I can't believe that it took so long to bring it back. Even if the HC teams want to ride conservative and save for AdH, the end of the climb is so steep, no dom can set a pace or survive for long, there will be attrition and an gaps.

Pog vs. Vingo. That's the big picture fight.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I think that Pogacar and Vingegaard will leave it a little later for all out war today (whereas from the bottom of the Alp d'Huez it's on), giving a slight chance for a breakaway winner, or an early attacker on Granon from yellow jersey group. For value I like Storer and Mollema from breakaway, and Vlasov if recovered from crash. Otherwise, Roglic or Mas could also sneak away late if the two favourites are playing some poker.

 

[Sciatic]

Interesting to see how long the current 4-8 can hang in there with Pog/JV.

Yes, I also find that so interesting when GTs enter the big mountains for the first time! Hopefully they’ll show us plenty of shots from the carnage-cam that follows the main group up Galibier. The 1st signs of who doesn’t have it should show there.

also interesting to see how long Powless will be abl to hang on, though it won’t be a surprise when he goes out the back.

 

[Tonton]

I think that Pogacar and Vingegaard will leave it a little later for all out war today (whereas from the bottom of the Alp d'Huez it's on), giving a slight chance for a breakaway winner, or an early attacker on Granon from yellow jersey group. For value I like Storer and Mollema from breakaway, and Vlasov if recovered from crash. Otherwise, Roglic or Mas could also sneak away late if the two favourites are playing some poker.

I see that, but there will be massive attrition. You can't hide on Le Granon. An opportunity will be there.

 

[Andre]

Waiting with excitement for this stage. Did some cycling today so I can sit back and watch this tomorrow. I'm guessing Van Aert will take the sprint points so that might lead him into the break. I think the break will be 20 or 25 riders. Latour (the climber not the sprinter) will be one of them. Cort might go early also to catch a few mountain dots. The top guys will probably wait until the final climb (hopefully not). Tadej never cracks and Jonas is still a mystery for me. Latour for the win and I have no idea how the battle between Tadej and Jonas will end up looking like.

 

[Miha81]

Finally. Can't wait for stage to start. I expect "battle" among GC guys and their teams. I just hope they won't ride in "survival mode".

 

[BullsFan22]

With Roglič injured, i am not sure how Jumbo could completely isolate and drop Pogačar. I think Pogačar has to have a bad day or he suffers a mechanical or crash (nobody wants that).

I think tomorrow Roglič has to make an important decision, go for it to get a stage win+ move up in the GC or stay back to defend his teammate or, depending on where he finishes and how he feels, abandons and focuses on the Vuelta and fall season.

 

[Rackham]

Not really surprising since you have been on the Roglic-bandwagon all Tour and complaining about Wout, Vingegaard etc. left and right. It sure would net you some enjoyment that you were right all along and the whole team shoulda been built upon Roglic when Vingegaard inevitably fails, wouldnt it?

On the Roglic bandwagon 'all-Tour'? How about since 2017? Been there, seen it all. Ups, downs, everything. This is Team Jumbo Visma who preferred to take Dylan Groenewegen to the 2019 TdF over Roglic. Being perpetually disappointing is their speciality, i.e. whilst also appropriating Roglic' victories as #samenwinnen team victories is another little typical Jumbo quirk.

Jonas Vingegaard meanwhile isn't a champion, not yet. He has everything to prove. Maybe he'll impress us all on Granon today? We'll see. But unlike others, I'm not going to watch this afternoon with the narrative fait accompli "Jonas V is the best climber in the world!" cemented in my head. In this race considering what's happened so far (Roglic getting battered, namely, whilst no Lopez who is a usual protagonist on the highest hardest summit finishes), Tadej Pogacar remains 'the' strongest rider (& climber) in the TdF until proven otherwise.

That is all.

 

[Escarabajo]

Isolating Pogacar in the mountains like many have suggested here has no purpose if you don't sacrifice some of your riders from far away. None. He can follow wheels in the mountains all day. The big teams need to sacrifice some of their riders. Roglic, Pidcock, Yates. Otherwise, you will be going head to head against him and we all know how the story will end.