Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 13: Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne - Grand Colombier, 137.8k

[Rechtschreibfehler]

It will be really important to drink liquid water today. Jens spilling the wisdom again.

Edit: and Bernie believes that Madouas, who is 20th in GC, can't climb and therefore has a winning chance of 2% to win from a group.

 

[danielovichdk2]

I went from thinking Vingegeaard had this Tour in the bag 9 days ago to now pretty much the opposite conclusion.

If only because of Jumbo's tactics & mindset. Their Pog obsession denotes concern, not confidence. Firing from the hip yesterday on stage 12 (basically riders shooting off in every direction in order to destabilize UAE) was all about playing some sort of long game in which Pogačar drops in the Alps because of hard stages raced hard previously. For example here's Vingegaard's post-race interview yesterday: https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/j...lgen-van-deze-zware-tour-in-de-slotweek-zien/

He says it's a tough Tour & the consequences of this will be felt in the third week. This belief will also be shared by the people in charge of the team (in fact it likely comes from them). So 2+2=4, i.e. Jumbo race hard & blow matches because they believe Granon represented some sort of 'proof' that tough, fast racing hurts Pog more & they want to replicate those conditions via attrition before Joux Plane & Loze.

It's the only conclusion which explains their energy expenditure yesterday. And I think they're very much mistaken.

Either team won't matter. It's mano e mano.

I think Jumbo's tactics on the Tourmalet were foolhardy & I think their "win together" mantra cost Vingegaard half a minute last Thursday when they launched an ill-advised attempt to repeat Granon & Pog won on Cauterets. And yesterday was more of the same, i.e. strength in numbers & go attack, attack, attack with no concern for their own energy levels (or Vingegaard's, for that matter), without any scientific proof this tactic even hurts Pog (especially when he's just chilling, surfing wheels & following Vinge).

We know how Jumbo races, i.e. Grischa Niermann is on the radio screaming "Pogi is suffering, come on Jonas!". My opinion is Jumbo should race the Tour the way they raced the Giro with Rog: strike when the iron is hot & ride defensive the rest of the time. Just focus on themselves, not Pog, and leave the race initiative to UAE. Even on Puy-de-Dôme, Jumbo got on the front & paced the bunch before getting countered at the top.

So I say they should just sit back & Vingegaard should follow Pog. It's what he did so effectively last year after Granon & it's when he's most comfortable. But the time gap is so small now so it's probably too late for that because he's now within firing range of Pog's MTF sprint & ITT. Aka the damage is already done & IMO Pog is in a sort of quasi driving seat going into this weekend.

And no, I don't buy the theory whereby Jumbo expected Vinge to be behind at this point of the race. Not when Pog had uncertain form coming into the Tour & Vingegaard was red, red hot after the Dauphiné. The only path to victory for Vingegaard was to be better in the mountains. And when the levels are so similar, his team's foolhardiness can be counter-productive because they end up cooking themselves and not Pog.

I believe that's what we're seeing play out in real time here.

Good and calm analysis. Thank you

 

[Tim Cahill]

Not much chance for the breakaway here I think, too flat at the start so the proper climbers will have a difficult time/cost too much energy.

A few hills at the start would've helped, super strong roulers who can climb like Madouas and Jorgensen might stand a chance.

 

[Boehmand]

First time all Tour we see Cort - on a day he has zero chance of winning

 

[Boehmand]

Trek closing down any move without Skjelmose or Ciccone.

 

[Valv.Piti]

You go into CN, and you see Boehmand literally spam posting what Danish commentators just said over and over again.

 

[frisenfruitig]

No one from JV attempting to get in the break, no more shenanigans it seems.

 

[RobertCrawley]

First time all Tour we see Cort - on a day he has zero chance of winning

He may not have the most awesome 'stache in the peloton this year. There was another guy who looked like Magnum PI.

 

[Izzyeviel]

No idea who will the stage, but I do know Pinot will podium

 

[RobertCrawley]

No idea who will the stage, but I do know Pinot will podium

I hope you are right. What a way to leave his last Tour.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Bobke notes AG2R didn't get anyone in the breakaway again today. Look for them to do some punishment pulls at the front at some point.

 

[Poursuivant]

Massive group

 

[Tim Cahill]

Oof that is a strong break actually, could get 10 minutes easily

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Peloton sitting up, so a big break goes without any GC threats.

Wonder if JV are gonna chase at some point, or UAE. I don't think UAE will though. JV, you never know.

Edit: oh wow this take aged well. UAE in front of the Peloton.

 

[RedheadDane]

No idea who will the stage, but I do know Pinot will podium

Hate to be the bearer of bad news.
Apparently he's gonna take it easy today. I don't think this is the kind of stage you can podium while taking it easy.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Peloton sitting up, so a big break goes without any GC threats.

Looks like we'll have a rational day today.

 

[Salvarani]

Thought it be a big group before the stage.

Lets see if they are given time or not.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Trek do love getting the wrong people in a break

 

[Didinho]

Will be hard to chase down. Winner in front I guess.

 

[Laplaz]

Props to Trek sending their best climber in the break!

 

[Volderke]

Coquard on the potato hunt.

 

[Danskebjerge]

Must be frustrating for the managers of Lidl-Trek to see Ciccone and Skjelmose miss the deciding attacks time and time again.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Looks like we'll have a rational day today.

A bit disappointing isn't it?

 

[RobertCrawley]

Will be hard to chase down. Winner in front I guess.

When the GC competition heats up on the last big hill, they'll pick them up.

 

[Salvarani]

UAE at the front already!

Game on, I guess.