Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 16: Passy - Combloux, 22.4k (ITT)

[Amazinmets87]

Pog is training a bike change, while Vinge and Wout are not. Would be funny if it was just to confuse Jumbo into their own bike changes.
I think TT bikes are still @ about 8kg, while the climbing bikes are 6.8kg the minimum they can be. Is it worth the lost seconds with the exchange?

The disc brake climbing bikes are 6.8? I've seen otherwise.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Would be funny if it was just to confuse Jumbo into their own bike changes.

I don't think a professional bike team would do something this squirrely.

 

[topt]

Pog is training a bike change, while Vinge and Wout are not. Would be funny if it was just to confuse Jumbo into their own bike changes.
I think TT bikes are still @ about 8kg, while the climbing bikes are 6.8kg the minimum they can be. Is it worth the lost seconds with the exchange?

I think TT bikes are way over 8kg, hell Wouts S5 is 8kg

 

[Red Rick]

I think TT bikes are way over 8kg, hell Wouts S5 is 8kg

Quick search you'll find like 9.25 average for a TT bike, but that's with all the standard kit, so I presume the smaller frames will be lighter.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Sepptimus Kuss, domestique of the week!

He's not a pannenkoek.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680970999758462976

View: https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1680970999758462976?s=20

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think Pog takes it by 15-45 seconds and Vinge will be unable to drop him on Weds. Jumbo has been preparing for this week for a long time, and are very vocal about it. UAE know it as well and as a whole the team is much improved and has taken Jumbo by surprise throughout the Tour.


Big question on if Kuss will ride an actual TT or save energy for Weds.

 

[Bavarianrider]

The sadest day of the year.

 

[ppanther92]

Vingegaard and Pogacar will again be closely matched but Vingegaard takes some more seconds, Pogacar than unable to gap him on Wednesday is my guess.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

I usually hate TT's, but the last one in the Giro was better than the entire Giro, and I think this one will be a nail biter...I will probably start to watch when the last 20 or so are going

I think Pog will be in yellow at the end of tomorrow's stage.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Are the rules different here than they were at the Giro? Where the climbing bike was waiting for them on the ground and they just jumped on it...

...<cough cough>...Geraint Thomas...<cough>

It's a risk

 

[Volderke]

I don't remember who it was, but the aero bike is so much more aero than a road bike you need to be climbing at like 7% or more to get a benefit from being on a road bike.

I am absolutely confident changing to a road bike is a mistake.

The only comparable spot I can think of is the 2017 Itzulia ITT where everyone did it full TT bike and Contador started on the road bike, but I don't remember the T1 split.

It’s 6K at 6.8% and the first 2K around 10% take all the speed out. So I reckon a road bike is worth it (based on your reasoning of 7%), especially because modern road bikes are very aero, and light at the same time.

 

[Aimar16]

...<cough cough>...Geraint Thomas...<cough>

It's a risk

Only if you're cocky and change your helmet. I wonder if INEOS will pull out this genius tactic again?!

 

[Rob5091]

Looked for a weather forecast and it says "Partly sunny and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside"!
Hot, with a SW wind with gusts of 30 km/h (a crosswind for most of the flat part and a headwind up to the finish) plus the chance of a thunderstorm ... force majeure might well decide the Tour.
Whoever is in yellow after the TT, should be able to defend it until Paris (barring a Yates type meltdown) so it'll be full gas, but something will be needed in the tank for the finishing climb. Pogacar has shown he's learnt from last year, so I think he's a slight favorite to win.

 

[Red Rick]

It’s 6K at 6.8% and the first 2K around 10% take all the speed out. So I reckon a road bike is worth it (based on your reasoning of 7%), especially because modern road bikes are very aero, and light at the same time.

I don't buy for one second the weight weighs up against the aero benefit if they put out the same power. The real question is if they can put out the same power.

 

[DaveJones2]

Given how evenly matched Pog and Vinge seem this year I can see Vingegaard taking this by a few seconds (but not much more than 10) purely by virtue of having Pogacars time split to measure himself by and aim for towards the end of the TT.

 

[Cookster15]

Pog to take yellow and everything is banked on Loze.

 

[Volderke]

I don't buy for one second the weight weighs up against the aero benefit if they put out the same power. The real question is if they can put out the same power.

I was trying to convince you by pointing out your own words as you mentioned a tipping point of 7%.

But you force me to say it very clearly, as you don't seem to believe your own words anymore:

whatever you buy or don't buy, you're wrong in your assumption.
The weight weighs up against the aero benefit on this particular climb for the same power output, as the first 2Ks are 9.5-10%, and the aero / weight curve says you have, as a pro rider, a bigger benefit of weight around 7-8%.

The above doesn't even factor in the benefit of a road bike in terms of power output on a climb: a road bike will most likely be beneficial in terms of power output, compared to a TT bike that only has one hand position when out of the saddle, and the aero position isn't very comfortable at all, on a climb.

And if you don't believe all of the above, just re-watch the TT in the 2020 Tour.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

i have probably no reasons to believe so, but I kind of just expect Pogacar to deliver something similar to La Planche and take atleast 30 seconds on Vingegaard.

 

[ice&fire]

I don't buy for one second the weight weighs up against the aero benefit if they put out the same power. The real question is if they can put out the same power.

I wonder if SRAM will want to sell us tomorrow their single chainring stuff that Vingegaard tested in Croix de Fer or if they'll wait until Wednesday.

 

[Red Rick]

I wonder if SRAM will want to sell us tomorrow their single chainring stuff that Vingegaard tested in Croix de Fer or if they'll wait until Wednesday.

Believe Jumbo have a former ski jumper in Tignes right now they can send him to wait next to the biggest pothole on the final climb.

 

[Gigs_98]

My gut feeling is telling me Pogacar. But I have no confidence in that prediction whatsoever.

My guess is the route suits Pogacar a bit better. Some short but steep climbs, it's rather short and probably the kind of TT where you can never really find your rhythm. I would guess Vingegaard would have preferred a flat 50km TT, but honestly, what do I know. Maybe Pogacar is also a bit better than last year (at least his result so far is) and I hear UAE improved their TT material? Those things kinda point in his direction, but it's so evenly matched, surely I'm grasping at straws. And then there is also the fact that if Pogacar doesn't win by at least 10 seconds (which I think is very well possible) Vingegaard will still look like the true winner.

 

[JosefK]

Deja vu

 

[Aimar16]

Deja vu

It is difficult to believe that Vingegaard will underperform as massively as Roglic in 2020

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

i have probably no reasons to believe so, but I kind of just expect Pogacar to deliver something similar to La Planche and take atleast 30 seconds on Vingegaard.

I keep coming to the number 47

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

i have probably no reasons to believe so, but I kind of just expect Pogacar to deliver something similar to La Planche and take atleast 30 seconds on Vingegaard.

The 15 secs from the ramp and 15 secs from the twists and quircks sounds reasonable to my ears.