Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 20: Belfort - Le Markstein, 133.5k

[topcat]

The tour is over (congratulations Jonas-chenqui). It appears everyone on the forum agrees on every topic. We have stopped struggling with life and we have entered the world of the Spirit.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So you think he'll be slower today than on Joux-Plane?!

Vinge can do two climbs together in 45 minutes averaging 1800 m/h (but excluding descent OFC).

Speaking about the stage, it's hardness is also due to the fact that two rather steep climbs (totalling 1360 m of elevation gain) are close to the finish line forming a difficult combo. Plus there's basically no flat in preceeding 90 km. That's why I also think it's top5 of all stages.

 

[Volderke]

So you think he'll be slower today than on Joux-Plane?!

What's with Joux-Plane? Care to elaborate instead of asking questions referring to all kinds of other climbs?
You think he'll be faster than <insert other TdF climb here>?
Again, you're clearly missing the context of back-to-back climbs with less than 10 minutes of downhill in between.

Point me to a harder consecutive 30kms in this Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

It has 200 m less vertical gain, no HC climbs, and the last climb is easier than the last climb to Laruns. So you can only find one metric (where you include two climbs today but exclude the HC climb back then) where it comes out on top.

Of the 8 mountain stages of the race, it's the 6th hardest. Or 3rd easiest (only in front of two de facto uno-puerto stages).

It's just too easy for what it's trying to do. Even all out action from the bottom of Petit Ballon isn't even a huge raid or anything. It's just very similar to the final stage of last Vuelta, though Morcuera and Cotos are decidedly easier.

 

[Netserk]

What's with Joux-Plane? Care to elaborate instead of asking questions referring to all kinds of other climbs?
You think he'll be faster than <insert other TdF climb here>?
Again, you're clearly missing the context of back-to-back climbs with less than 10 minutes of downhill in between.

Point me to a harder consecutive 30kms in this Tour.

Loze alone was harder. At the end of a far harder stage, at far higher altitude (more than 1000 m difference), with no downhill to recover but a flat middle section, Vingegaard did ~6.24 W/kg for the last 22 minutes.

 

[topcat]

Today’s stage is hard enough to produce gaps. It’s hard enough just to get to base camp.

 

[dobrien]

Wouldn't suprise me if Inoes went all in for the podium. Something like stage 20 of the 2021 Vuelta.

My take, which is as likely to be catastrophically wrong as right; lots of ways this could unfold...

Rodriguez lost 1:11 to Adam on stage 17 so it's not a slam dunk he's going to have the legs to pull it off even if the team wants to try. Very different stage profile of course so who knows; if he's just good enough to follow Ineos may be content to shepherd him to a top 5. I'm sure they will start the stage prepared to ride aggressively but it all comes down to Carlos' legs (stating the obvious here..)

With Bilbao in 6th I'd look for Bahrain to really drill it early, going for either a top 5 or maybe even a podium if one of the UAE guys implodes. Simon Yates was also good on 17 and should be in the mix; the question is if he's willing to risk his top 5 for the big prize. I'm not sure the first climb is hard enough honestly; a couple percent steeper and it would be much more likely to expose someone on a bad day, but the profile as it stands is perfect for Jumbo just to do hard tempo on the front to keep any breaks close and for the top people to sit in. One interesting dynamic for me is if Jumbo elects to police the front early or if they let UAE drive protecting their podiums

I have my doubts a break is going to take this; while the race is likely to be chaotic Jonas is going to want a road stage and his team are going to be all in setting him up for Petit Ballon/Platzerwasel. Possibly look for Kuss in the break to assist later on (or free to go for the stage in the event the break DOES get some time).

My absolute dream would be a Pinot win but unless he's been hiding just for this day he really hasn't shown the legs unfortunately, and I don't think Jumbo is going to let a break take it.

The rider I'm most concerned about is Pog; it would be wonderful if he woke up to a magical day but since his issue seems to be his lack of base prep I'm not sure we can be expecting any miracles. He was completely emptied on 17; I'm sure his mind will be willing but will the body follow? It's going to be a relatively cool day so perhaps that will help him.

Prediction: (The head speaking)
Jonas wins the stage.
Pog implodes unfortunately. (I REALLY want to be wrong here).
One of Rodriguez, Simon Yates, or Bilbao gets onto the podium.

If it's ridden as hard as yesterday it's sure to be entertaining, whatever happens.

 

[Escarabajo]

It has 200 m less vertical gain, no HC climbs, and the last climb is easier than the last climb to Laruns. So you can only find one metric (where you include two climbs today but exclude the HC climb back then) where it comes out on top.

Of the 8 mountain stages of the race, it's the 6th hardest. Or 3rd easiest (only in front of two de facto uno-puerto stages).

Gradients and altitude gain does not say much about this one being stage 20. A lot of riders are riding on fumes!
Maybe someone cracks big time, or someone gains a lot of time.

 

[Netserk]

Spandelles + Hautacam was a far harder combo, which took together 1h06'32'', nearly a 50 % longer effort.

Yet if we imagine that the two climbs today are ridden at the speed of those two longer climbs, the combined climbing time would be 46'09'' today.

As I said, Vingegaard will go below 45 minutes if he goes full gas today. If he already attacks on Petit Ballon, it's assured.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

It's just too easy for what it's trying to do. Even all out action from the bottom of Petit Ballon isn't even a huge raid or anything. It's just very similar to the final stage of last Vuelta, though Morcuera and Cotos are decidedly easier

It's a bit light on climbs, I agree, but it works as advertised. It's not meant as stage that creates huge gaps. Not according to Gouvenou it isn't.

This stage has no valley flat in between the last two climbs. And pretty much no valleys from Croix des Moinats onwards. It's much better designed than that Vuelta abomination.

 

[Red Rick]

It's a bit light on climbs, I agree, but it works as advertised. It's not meant as stage that creates huge gaps. Not according to Gouvenou it isn't.

This stage has no valley flat in between the last two climbs. And pretty much no valleys from Croix des Moinats onwards. It's much better designed than that Vuelta abomination.

Vuelta has done Morcuera-Cotos 3 times and it was really good at least twice. And yes, it was universally agreed the Vuelta 3rd week was way too easy last year.

Spandelles + Hautacam was a far harder combo, which took together 1h06'32'', nearly a 50 % longer effort.

Yet if we imagine that the two climbs today are ridden at the speed of those two longer climbs, the combined climbing time would be 46'09'' today.

As I said, Vingegaard will go below 45 minutes if he goes full gas today. If he already attacks on Petit Ballon, it's assured.

Spandelles was really slow considering the damage that actually happened. The interval training session on Spandelles didn't help I think.

Better comparison is Col de Romme + Colombiere, which is flat out harder and where Pog did the VAMs required for this to go sub 45.

 

[rallybanana]

Does anyone else find the Tour de France messes with your internal calendar?

I think because Monday was a rest day I woke up today thinking it was Friday. Pleasantly surprised that it is actually Saturday and there is a nice Vosges mountain stage to enjoy.

 

[Volderke]

Spandelles + Hautacam was a far harder combo, which took together 1h06'32'', nearly a 50 % longer effort.

Yet if we imagine that the two climbs today are ridden at the speed of those two longer climbs, the combined climbing time would be 46'09'' today.

As I said, Vingegaard will go below 45 minutes if he goes full gas today. If he already attacks on Petit Ballon, it's assured.

So let's do the analysis:

he combo of the last 2 climbs (Petit Ballon + Platzerwasel until Breitfirst) as linked to google maps here:

Canton de Wintzenheim to D27

goo.gl

Total length is 29.5K
descent is exactly 10K.

So that's 1425 vertical meters in 19.5K and an average gradient of 7.3%.

If done in 45 minutes, this results in:

26 K/hr
1900 VAM

Good luck with your Contador / Verbier beating VAM - prediction, now put your money where your mouth is.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Hopefully Bora and Hindley can do something here. Sounds like he's improving?

He said two days ago that he still can't accelerate because of the crash which is why he also couldn't go into the break on Loze. So even if his overall climbing is better again, I very much doubt they'll try something.

Wouldn't suprise me if Inoes went all in for the podium. Something like stage 20 of the 2021 Vuelta.

Back then they had two guys and Bernal was happy to sacrifice himself because he didn't care about finishing 5th or 7th. Now they only have Rodriguez which two guys breathing down his neck while the gap to Yates is quite big. Pretty sure they'll ride defensively.

I think the saving grace for this stage is that with so many guys trying to be in the break + Polkadot fight, we'll get a tough race until Col de la Schlucht by default. But I don't expect any major planned GC assault otuside of Simon Yates, Bilbao, Gall etc. trying to sneak into the break.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

So let's do the analysis:

he combo of the last 2 climbs (Petit Ballon + Platzerwasel until Breitfirst) as linked to google maps here:

Canton de Wintzenheim to D27

goo.gl

Total length is 29.5K
descent is exactly 10K.

So that's 1425 vertical meters in 19.5K and an average gradient of 7.3%.

If done in 45 minutes, this results in:

26 K/hr
1900 VAM

Good luck with your Contador / Verbier beating VAM - prediction, now put your money where your mouth is.

I think they are talking about the actual categorized climb of Platzerwasel up to the KOM. That comes out to be a bit shorter and with less vertical meters. It would be only 26.4 kilometers, 16.4 of climbing.

 

[Netserk]

So let's do the analysis:

he combo of the last 2 climbs (Petit Ballon + Platzerwasel until Breitfirst) as linked to google maps here:

Canton de Wintzenheim to D27

goo.gl

Total length is 29.5K
descent is exactly 10K.

So that's 1425 vertical meters in 19.5K and an average gradient of 7.3%.

If done in 45 minutes, this results in:

26 K/hr
1900 VAM

Good luck with your Contador / Verbier beating VAM - prediction, now put your money where your mouth is.

The combined vertical gain is 1350 m. So the required VAM is 1800 m/h, ~6.4 W/kg. No problemo for Vinge with a rest between the efforts.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So let's do the analysis:

he combo of the last 2 climbs (Petit Ballon + Platzerwasel until Breitfirst) as linked to google maps here:

Canton de Wintzenheim to D27

goo.gl

Total length is 29.5K
descent is exactly 10K.

So that's 1425 vertical meters in 19.5K and an average gradient of 7.3%.

If done in 45 minutes, this results in:

26 K/hr
1900 VAM

Good luck with your Contador / Verbier beating VAM - prediction, now put your money where your mouth is.

According to the official profile it's 16.4 km at 8.2% so about 1350 m of elevation gain (the climb top of Platzerwasel is marked before that shallow part). Which implies a VAM of exactly 1800 m/h for 45 minutes (with about 8-10 minute break). It's plausible for both Vinge and Pog. The latter averaged almost the same VAM on a more difficult Romme+Colombiere combo.

 

[Volderke]

The combined vertical gain is 1350 m. So the required VAM is 1800 m/h, ~6.4 W/kg. No problemo for Vinge with a rest between the efforts.

No it's not. Per my own strava file.
Again, I am talking, from the very beginning, of Petit Ballon + Platzerwasel up until Breitfirst. I've also linked that exact stretch of road above.

If you were talking about something else, you weren't listening or lack reading comprehension. And the very reason I was talking about this from the beginning, is to illustrate (as you were asking me to do) why this is harder than the Laruns stage.

 

[Netserk]

COL DE ROMME (8.52 km, 9.37 %, 798 m)

Pogi: 26'29'' = 1808 m/h

COL DE LA COLOMBIERE (7.42 km, 8.60 %, 638 m)

Pogi: 21'55'' = 1747 m/h

 

[Volderke]

COL DE ROMME (8.52 km, 9.37 %, 798 m)

Pogi: 26'29'' = 1808 m/h

COL DE LA COLOMBIERE (7.42 km, 8.60 %, 638 m)

Pogi: 21'55'' = 1747 m/h

Why are you talking about anything but the 2023 TdF?
Whataboutism at its best.


And why doesn't your data above not prove anything?
You show 2 VAMs of around 1800, while your claimed VAM of 1900 in today's stage isn't supported by anything.
Again, you don't read what I write. That's on you.

 

[Netserk]

No it's not. Per my own strava file.
Again, I am talking, from the very beginning, of Petit Ballon + Platzerwasel up until Breitfirst. I've also linked that exact stretch of road above.

If you were talking about something else, you weren't listening or lack reading comprehension.

You would have to add the descent and the run-in to the finish before they got to your predicted time of 30 minutes plus 30 minutes. Take the L.

 

[Netserk]

Why are you talking about anything but the 2023 TdF?

Whataboutism at its best.

The 2023 Tour where you thought these two climbs together are harder than the full ascent of Loze? Please ...

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Hopefully Bora and Hindley can do something here. Sounds like he's improving?

I could imagine a hard battle from the gun between Jayco and Bora. Simon have improved likewise relatively in 3rd week, IMO even more than Jai. Just looking at climb clockings of Loze climb.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

During 80ies and early 90ies Vosges was my 2nd home during summer vacations. Reading thread here, had the same pleasant experience of the German heritage and history lesson. Which was back in 1986, my dad fluent in French but fell to the buttom in German, whereas me the opposite as 8th grader almost fluent in German (thanks to very enthusiastic German teacher in school, German being 3rd language in my country, but regret I didn't took the offer of French lessons from 8th, still just have 1 year of French, but can relate since speaking a bit Italian due to my wife's ancestors).

At a point entering Alsace driving around for an hour, my dad apparently thought he got lost, and me reading a book om the backseat couldn't help him (me geography nerd by then, but left over the copilot role to my mom - the least geography expert on this planet).

My dad pulled in to the side by a small farm where the farmer's wife came out. She apparently understood my father's questions in French, but she answered him in sonorous German...of which he did not understand a peep. Then I had to step in and got very useful directions, also for attractions.
After which I got the copilot role again and just glad I left my book reading and enjoying the beautiful views.

 

[Volderke]

The 2023 Tour where you thought these two climbs together are harder than the full ascent of Loze? Please ...

1. you don't prove this stage isn't within the 5 hardest of this Tour. You refer to a metric but that metric doesn't tell the whole story. In any way, 'hardest' is not an objective metric, and there is simply no need for trying to say that stages can be ranked unequivocally, especially when they are close in terms of all of those metrics. I said it's probably wihtin the 5 hardest and anyone following the race could simply agree with this (or not necessarily disagree), but you're chosing to contest this without anything that really backs up your (much firmer than mine) stance on the matter.
2. you claim Vingegaard could do a 1900 VAM today (well, I know you didn't claim this, but either you claim this, or you didn't read my posts, and still, you kept on discussing. That's on you. I was very clear in what I was talking about, you were very clearly not reading what I wrote and stubbornly kept hammering on what you wanted to push in this discussion).
3. you're grasping on straws when I write this is the hardest back to back combo, probably even the hardest 30K, and you're rightly referring to Loze as a harder 30K.
The thing is, if you have to look at the Loze stage (which is definitely the hardest stage in this Tour) to prove that today's stage doesn't have the hardest 30K of any stage, and you don't find any other stage than the Loze stage in comparison to today's stage, you are actually saying that you have a hard time finding stages harder than today's stage. When I say that this stage is probably within the 5 hardest stages, and you try so hard to say it's not, take note that you didn't find but one stage with a harder 30K, but still think you're right about the top 5 hard stages.

ps: I have put you on ignore. I appreciate factual correctness, but I don't like people who don'tt read my comments, cherry-pick parts of comments, take them out of context, try to give it a spin or try to impose their agendas and ultimately keep me busy with a discussion that is nothing but fatigueing.. Enjoy your cycling and this forum, but it'll be without me.
Apologies towards other forum members.