Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 5: Pau - Laruns, 162.7k

[Martinstranger]

Indeed Pogacar may get better, but today he got blown out of his shoe, andeven if come really good it's hard to get back a whole minute. Plus he may lose more time tomorrow and Sunday.

If I was JV - thats the tactic I would follow

You never know if there comes a bad day or an average ITT where Pogacar kills it. So they should go for as much time as possible, as quickly as possible.

 

[Scarponi]

The race is missing Froome

 

[Pippo_San]

Don't forget up until LBL Pogi was untouchable. It's clearly a matter of bad preparation.
Could be better come 3rd week, but if Vingo plays everything right by the 3rd week the Tour could also be over.

 

[StryderHells]

The race is missing Froome

I don‘t think IPT are missing him

 

[RedheadDane]

Why are you talking about Pidcock? Of course he looks like himself.

There are too many TPs in this race!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If Pogi gets dropped on this climb which I think favored him more than Vinge. Then oh boi it's gonna be a long TDF for him. No shot.

 

[memyselfandI]

Pfff..Hindley is a player, no? Just a game face when he's so amazed for his stage win and under the skin he's thinking the real game.

 

[GroupDK]

What dominant performance by Vingegaard. I think he could possibly even have put 1.30 into Pogacar if they drilled the whole climb full gas with Kelderman and an insanely strong Kuss. Wp Jonas.

This is good for the race. Hindley in yellow, some nice time gaps, and some big leaders losing a lot of time.

Kelderman was nowhere.. Sepp Kuss is Jonas's ace in the hole on these climbs, just as last year... time will tell if Sepp is as durable as we saw last season.

 

[Cagalitroso]

The race is missing Froome

And his beautiful runs, up in the mountains

 

[ppanther92]

their team just isn't good enough

Well, indeed Kuss and Benoot seem to climb better again than UAE (maybe par-Yates). But the bigger issue still is that Pogacar isn't good enough compared to Vingegaard.
Last year I agree that with reveresed team there might have been chances for Pogi (who would have saved VIngegaard on the Roubaix stage, no Roglic to do a double attack). But still, even last year Vingegaard was just stronger.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

There is only really one stage in this race that is anywhere near hard enough to show Jai Hindley at his best so I'm looking forward to seeing him on Col de la Loze

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

0 Chance last years Pogacar gets dropped on a 4km/11% lol. Hes clearly not at his best

yup, this climb far favored Pogi and he got dropped and lost time on the flat as wel.

On long climbs he's gonna lose a ton more. Unless UAE come up with some spectacular Formigal level stuff there's just no way he's gonna win now

 

[Boehmand]

Hindley gives such good interviews.

Cool guy!

 

[Mayomaniac]

If Pogi gets dropped on this climb which I think favored him more than Vinge. Then oh boi it's gonna be a long TDF for him. No shot.

Yeah, I was thinking the same...

 

[Boehmand]

Jakobsen and Cavendish just in, 8 minutes inside the time limit.

Edit: Ewan in the same group, it was those 3 with 2-4 Doms each.

 

[The Clogger]

It was expected for Vingo to beat a classic rider.

Hindley must be 2nd favorite for the tour

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

The reality is, in GTs, the only times Tadej has crushed the competition on a stage were the final ITT of stage 20 and Romme in 2021. Roglic was a better climber in the 2019 Vuelta and 2020 Tour. Vingegaard dropped him on Ventoux in 2021 and was miles better last year. > 4 minutes gained in mountains.

He’s the best all-around rider, but I’m not convinced he would have beaten Roglic in 2021, or even Vingegaard if he hadn’t crashed on the Romme stage. And Roglic really screwed up 2020.

I think that if all the riders get perfect prep and line up for a GT and don’t have crashed, the hierarchy would be:

1. Vingegaard
2. Roglic
3. Pogacar
4. Remco
5. Ayuso

Of course, Vingegaard could fade or Pogacar suddenly improve significantly, but at this point it seems like, for a good race next year, we need:

• Ayuso to race the Tour with Tadej as co-leaders.
• Roglic to transfer to Ineos and go after the Tour with full support.
• Remco to race the Tour.

 

[JosefK]

In the Way too Early to Speculate category, there is still a mathematical chance that Jumbo could win all three grand tours, this year.

 

[movingtarget]

The race is missing Froome

Even Meintjes is more noticeable in races now than Froome..............

 

[Rob5091]

UAE, I think, could not chase down the break, because of Pogacar's condition so Hindley made it and then Vingegaard took advantage.
What happens tomorrow will be very interesting.

 

[MrTea1976]

Why would you have Ayuso ahead of Geraint Thomas or Jai Hindley?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The reality is, in GTs, the only times Tadej has crushed the competition on a stage were the final ITT of stage 20 and Romme in 2021. Roglic was a better climber in the 2019 Vuelta and 2020 Tour. Vingegaard dropped him on Ventoux in 2021 and was miles better last year. > 4 minutes gained in mountains.

He’s the best all-around rider, but I’m not convinced he would have beaten Roglic in 2021, or even Vingegaard if he hadn’t crashed on the Romme stage. And Roglic really screwed up 2020.

I think that if all the riders get perfect prep and line up for a GT and don’t have crashed, the hierarchy would be:

1. Vingegaard
2. Roglic
3. Pogacar
4. Remco
5. Ayuso

Of course, Vingegaard could fade or Pogacar suddenly improve significantly, but at this point it seems like, for a good race next year, we need:

• Ayuso to race the Tour with Tadej as co-leaders.
• Roglic to transfer to Ineos and go after the Tour with full support.
• Remco to race the Tour.

A Roglic who barely eked out a Giro win over an ancient Thomas who lost horribly to Pogacar at last year’s Tour, is suddenly a better GT rider than Pogacar again because he’s below his best in a GT he couldn’t prepare for the way he wanted? Please.

 

[Oldermanish]

If Pogi gets dropped on this climb which I think favored him more than Vinge. Then oh boi it's gonna be a long TDF for him. No shot.

As much as anything the whole race played out well for JV with Hindley's break (brilliant tactics, that) getting 4 minutes and UAE's depth completely exhausted. Then you had some seriously good team efforts by almost all of JV with special note to Kuss.
UAE needs to regroup if given the chance but, per Dekker's observation JV may take the next stages to apply pressure to get a defensible gap. Pogi can rally but his team may not make it.

 

[Boehmand]

Kelderman was nowhere.. Sepp Kuss is Jonas's ace in the hole on these climbs, just as last year... time will tell if Sepp is as durable as we saw last season.

Kuss was nowhere to be seen until after the first rest day last year.

But I think they have timed the condition differently this year, because last year was mountain heavy towards the end, and this year is mountain heavy towards the beginning.

The Courchevel and Fellering stages will be very interesting this year, because a lot of riders have gone into the Tour closer to peak condition than usually, so fatigue may play an even bigger role than normally.

 

[ppanther92]

The reality is, in GTs, the only times Tadej has crushed the competition on a stage were the final ITT of stage 20 and Romme in 2021. Roglic was a better climber in the 2019 Vuelta and 2020 Tour. Vingegaard dropped him on Ventoux in 2021 and was miles better last year. > 4 minutes gained in mountains.

He’s the best all-around rider, but I’m not convinced he would have beaten Roglic in 2021, or even Vingegaard if he hadn’t crashed on the Romme stage. And Roglic really screwed up 2020.

I think that if all the riders get perfect prep and line up for a GT and don’t have crashed, the hierarchy would be:

1. Vingegaard
2. Roglic
3. Pogacar
4. Remco
5. Ayuso

Of course, Vingegaard could fade or Pogacar suddenly improve significantly, but at this point it seems like, for a good race next year, we need:

• Ayuso to race the Tour with Tadej as co-leaders.
• Roglic to transfer to Ineos and go after the Tour with full support.
• Remco to race the Tour.

Nah, its just that Vingegaard is so strong. Still Pogacar is better than Roglic. Also why is there no Thomas? Surely has shown more than Remco or Ayuso. And was super evenly matched with Roglic in the Giro. But to have the Pogacar connection again - he gave the same Thomas 5 minutes last year in the Tour (and the rest of the field over 10min), 2021 he gave Carapaz 7 min (and the rest of the field over 10min). Where has Roglic ever done this? Not even close.

Vingegaard > Pogacar >> Roglic/Thomas > Others