Tour de France Tour de France 2024 stage 17: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux - Superdévoluy, 177.8 km

[yaco]

Absolutely no question Alpecin keeps (or brings it back) together for the intermediate sprint, for which Philipsen will get a full lead out. For them this is basically a 114km flat stage.

What happens after that is very hard to predict but those who are targeting the stage need to wait until 115km in to try to form a break.

Is there any reason why Philipsen can not go in the break.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Visma might not pace the whole stage but I think they’re going k to try making the climbs hard. UAE might try getting a win with Almeida or Adam but if push comes to shove Pogacar probably wins tomorrow.

 

[Rob5091]

Alpecin will want Philipsen first at the intermediate sprint so that's their goal tomorrow. The break in which case will not have much of a chance until afterwards when the usual suspects will try their luck, Healy, Carapaz, Lazkano, etc.

 

[The Barb]

Philipsen is not winning the green jersey by just winning intermediate sprints when Girmay gets 2nd or 3rd. They'll have to be way more creative. Like hoping Philipsen can make the break on Thursday and Girmay is hurt so he can't. And even then it will be hard.

I agree. I just think their best chance of doing this is a full on team sprint for the intermediate, where other team members (MVDP etc) can take some minor positions if Biniam is at hurt as it seems. But you might be right.

 

[Sciatic]

before today's stage, Philipsen said that this is one for van der Poel. So he may not be the only one

That would make two reasons for Alpecin to pull and deny a significant break.

 

[Bolder]

Definitely not. Might argue its easier, but not much easier. Think its about the same and If I really had to choose, I'd go Noyer

I have ridden Noyer on a hot day. It’s quite exposed to the sun.

 

[hayneplane]

Absolutely no question Alpecin keeps (or brings it back) together for the intermediate sprint, for which Philipsen will get a full lead out. For them this is basically a 114km flat stage.

What happens after that is very hard to predict but those who are targeting the stage need to wait until 115km in to try to form a break.

What might be interesting would be to really test how fit Girmay is after his crash by trying to get Jasper in the break with a couple of teammates to help keep that group together until the intermediate to try and get a full 20 point swing on Girmay if he can’t make the break as well.

 

[zlev11]

i kinda hope UAE chase down the break again just to ensure that thursdays stage is ridden at 100mph

 

[Samu Cuenca]

They should IMO. Try to get Van Aert, Tratnik or Kelderman in.

I haven't had 10 minutes of hope for Kelderman win before inevitable 11th place from breakaway all Tour

They don't have to admit defeat yet (we know what happened last year, although it looks a lot less likely to occur this time around), but they risk leaving the race with only one stage win, if they don't try something different.

 

[Squire]

Is there any reason why Philipsen can not go in the break.

I think he'll get the Adam Yates treatment. Don't see other riders being very eager to ride with him if his presence means Intermarche chasing like crazy 1 minute behind.

 

[Tim Cahill]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813308800436441296

 

[Samamba]

I agree. I just think their best chance of doing this is a full on team sprint for the intermediate, where other team members (MVDP etc) can take some minor positions if Biniam is at hurt as it seems. But you might be right.

The points the difference between 1st, and minor places is too small for that imo. You don't make up a 35 points gap with that strat. They need to think about the box, basicallt try to drop Girmay somewhere so that Philipsen can at least take 1 intermediate where Girmay doesn't score. I think it's basically impossible if Girmay isn't really hurt as he's simply the better climber technically.

 

[Samamba]

On the other hand it would be ridiculously hilarious if a battle for green makes it so that favorites win tomorrow. Imagine the faces of the UNO X riders lmao.

 

[movingtarget]

UAE hasn't been giving the break much leeway in this race so far. Don't see that changing on this stage. Probably another Pogacar win. Carapaz will keep trying anyway. with the usual breakers.

 

[danielovichdk2]

All of you serve the same boring theories. Such a elite club of yawn. You read the same newspapers I guess.

Vino to lead Mark to 36 tomorrow and Pogacar to crash hard. Race will be split wide open.

 

[search]

UAE hasn't been giving the break much leeway in this race so far. Don't see that changing on this stage. Probably another Pogacar win.

after getting schooled by Politt today?!

 

[sam6]

Pogi to win, UAE already have a big lead now and it should be relatively easy to control so why not go for another stage win

 

[houtdffan]

Maybe QS to keep things together. They are quite confident Remco can beat Vingo

Mikel Landa has "little doubt" that Remco Evenepoel can still contest second place at Tour de France against Jonas Vingegaard

Mikel Landa is the best Spaniard in the Tour de France classification. He is fifth, with Joao Almeida only a few seconds ahead of him and Carlos Rodriguez close behind. So far he has always stayed alo...

cyclinguptodate.com

 

[dazaau]

Another stage that screams Pogacar, exciting getting old kinda fast.

All stages not a sprint scream pogacar

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

As said above Noyer at 7.5 km and 8% is no joke and is really perfect for Pogacar to launch an attack which we know he can hold to the finish. But he is riding for the double and with the final three stages beckoning he will hold fire. Small chance Visma try something. More likely a break to win.

He was supposed to ride defensively on Sunday, and look what happened.
With Pogacar you never know. Also it's not such a huge effort if he goes close to the top.

But the likeliest scenario for a Pog win is no break again and than he kinda wins by default probably.

 

[Tonton]

Superdévoluy! I love the OP! I went there in the early 70s, and the resort is still there. I believe in miracles! The original buildings are beat up and a Tour finish will bring a much needed breath of fresh air, or what another forum would call a shot in the arm...

 

[sam6]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813308800436441296

Might we see a repeat of the Vuelta stage he won? Pogi, Vingegaard and Evenepoel will catch and drop the break then play games while a flying Champoussin flies past them with an open mouth

 

[hfer07]

The real question is: How far out is the attack by Pogacar going to occur?

 

[gregrowlerson]

They should IMO. Try to get Van Aert, Tratnik or Kelderman in.

I haven't had 10 minutes of hope for Kelderman win before inevitable 11th place from breakaway all Tour

If MVDP defeats Wilco from the break will you press your button?

 

[red_flanders]

Maybe QS to keep things together. They are quite confident Remco can beat Vingo

Mikel Landa has "little doubt" that Remco Evenepoel can still contest second place at Tour de France against Jonas Vingegaard

Mikel Landa is the best Spaniard in the Tour de France classification. He is fifth, with Joao Almeida only a few seconds ahead of him and Carlos Rodriguez close behind. So far he has always stayed alo...

cyclinguptodate.com

I'm not sure that's at all what Landa is saying, the quote is a bit hard to parse. Here's Landa's quote:

"There's a lot of Tour left, I'm fine, I'm looking forward to it, let's see if we have a good week. The only thing we are doing is chasing, we don't have time for much more, let's hope to be close to Jonas to see if he (Evenepoel, ed.) can get closer. Sunday's demonstration leaves little doubt, but there are still days left and Visma is going to make a tough race".

Not seeing that they're "quite confident that Remco can beat Vingo". "They" in this case are...Landa. And he's just hoping Remco can stay close and see if Remco can get closer.

Seems like a pretty click-baity headline, no?